Monday, May 13, 2013

Aftermath of Hilsenrath's tapering/ Gold imports into India jump 138% or 166 tonnes/

Gold closed down $2.50 to $1434.50 (comex closing time).  Silver rose by only 4 cents to $23.67  (comex closing time)

In the access market at 5 pm gold and silver are the following :

gold: $1431.0.
silver: $23.69


Although gold was weak throughout the day, silver again refused to buckle.  Gold/silver equity shares were quite soft throughout the day.

At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 142 contracts to 145,466 contracts despite silver's fall on Friday.  The silver OI is  holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the gold contract  fell by 1687 contracts to 440,684 as we still have a few more dumb paper players willing to take on the crooked bankers. With gold's huge drop on Friday, one would have thought that the OI would have collapsed further.  The gold deliveries for May rose considerably today surpassing 7 tonnes at  7.645 tonnes and this is an off month for gold.  In silver we continue to see the total number of ounces standing rise above the quantity that stood on first day notice. The number of silver ounces, standing for delivery in May now stands at 17.285 million oz. ( On first day notice:  14.860 million oz.)

Again, at the Comex,  gold is departing as investors are frightened to death of a confiscation similar to what happened at MFGlobal or Refco. Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer gold rests at 1.836 million oz or 57.10 tonnes.  The total of all gold at the comex fell below the 8 million oz at 248.77 tonnes 

The GLD  for a change reported so far no change in inventory.
The SLV inventory of silver remained constant. 

In other physical news, we got a whopper demand for gold (physical) from Dubai.
They reported in the past two weeks alone a massive 50 tonnes of gold was demanded.  In India last month, 166 tonnes were imported. Remember that the world produces around 183 tonnes per month.  China is importing greater than 200 tonnes into its country.

In paper news...

On Friday night we finally saw the Hilsenrath paper on the supposed tapering of government purchases of bonds. We are 7 months into the year and the government's fiscal year and already the deficit is 700 billion.  The Fed claims that they can taper because they suspect the deficit for the year will be anywhere from 840 billion to 900 billion.  The USA deficit is around 100 billion USA per month.  How on earth can the deficit rise by only 140 billion in the next 5 months.  (See below the paper written by Dave Kranzler, the GoldenTruth).

In Japan, for the 2nd straight session, we saw the huge Japanese bond market halted as yields go skyrocketing.  The yield ended 9 basis points higher this morning.

In the USA retail sales rose by .1% but on an adjusted basis.  On a non adjusted basis it declined by 2.5%

It looks like, Detroit will run out of cash by next month.  It looks like it will have to default.

We will go over these and other stories but first.....................

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today:

The total gold comex open interest fell today by 1657 contracts  from 442,341 down to 440,684, with gold falling by $32.00 on Friday. With such a whack in gold one would have thought that the OI would have contracted more. We no doubt had a few new ball players enter the arena at these lower prices for gold. The front non active delivery month of May saw its OI rise by 506 contracts down up to 635.  However we had 8 delivery notices filed on Friday.  Thus we  gained 514 contracts or 51,400 additional gold ounces will stand for delivery in May.   The next active contract month is June and here the OI fell by 4434 contracts to 218,379 as most of these paper players rolled into August. June is the second biggest delivery month in gold's calender and first day notice is less than  3 weeks away.  The estimated volume today was poor at 144,354 contracts.    The confirmed volume on Friday was also very strong at 267,884 contracts.

The total silver Comex OI surprisingly rose  by 142  contracts from 145,324 down to 145,466  with  silver's fall in price of 25 cents on Friday.  The front active silver delivery month of May saw it's OI fall by 215 contracts down to 732.  We had 220 delivery notices filed on Friday so we gained 5 contracts or an additional  25,000 oz will  stand for delivery in May.  The next  delivery month for silver is June and here the OI fell by 30 contracts to stand at 374. The next big active contract month is July and here the OI fell by 341 contracts to rest tonight at 78,796.   The estimated volume today was fair, coming in at 31,259 contracts.  The confirmed volume on Friday was  very good at 57,113.

Comex gold/May contract month:

May 13/2013

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 64,227.216 (Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
32.15 (Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) today
 39 (3900  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
596 (59,600)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1856  (185,600)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

483,433.23 oz  

We had good activity at the gold vaults.
The dealer had 0 deposits and 0  dealer withdrawals.

We had 1 customer deposits today:

i) Into Brinks:  32.15 oz

total customer deposit: 32.15 oz

We had another strange  customer withdrawal today:

You will recall that we had a deposit on Friday into Scotia of exactly this:

64,227.216 oz.  Today we had the same exact withdrawal from Scotia.

What on earth is going on? Two tonnes enter Scotia on Friday as a deposit and today the exact same two tonnes leaves!!

total withdrawal:   64,227.216 oz

We had 1   adjustment 

Out of the Scotia vault:  902.724 oz was adjusted out of the customer and back into the dealer account.  The JPMorgan vault remained dormant today.

Thus the dealer inventory remains tonight at a low of 1.836 million oz (57.10) tonnes of gold.
The total of all gold falls again considerably  at the comex and this time, this time below the 8 million oz as it rests at 7.998 million oz or 248.77 tonnes.

The CME reported that we had 39 notices filed today for 3900  oz of gold.
To calculate the quantity of gold ounces that will stand, I take the OI standing for May  (635) and subtract out Monday's notices (39) which leaves us with 596 notices or 59,600 oz left to be served upon our longs. 

Thus  we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in May:

1856 contracts x 100 oz per contract  or  185,600 oz (served)  +  596 notices or 59,600 oz (to be served upon)  =  2,345,796 oz or 7.645 tonnes of gold.

This is extremely high for a non active month.  We  gained 51,400 additional gold ounces standing for the  May comex gold contract today.

The big June delivery month will surely be exciting to watch judging by the huge demand for gold in May. We will watch what happens with JPMorgan at its customer gold remains at a very low 4.9 tonnes of gold and the dealer gold at its nadir at 1.836 million oz.



May 13.2013:  May silver: 

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory54,240.5000 (CNT)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 1,446,475.675 oz (Delaware,  CNT, JPM, Scotia )   
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory 294,471.24  (Brinks)
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 600,056.20 (CNT)
No of oz served (contracts)138 (690,000)
No of oz to be served (notices)594  (2,970,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2863  (14,315,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month204,097.65
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month1,333,117.3

Today, we  had good activity  inside the silver vaults.

 we had 1 dealer deposits and 1  dealer withdrawals.

i)  Out of Brinks we had 294,471.24 oz withdrawn

Total dealer withdrawal:  294,471.24 oz

We had 1 dealer deposit into CNT:  600,056.20 oz

total dealer deposit:  600,056.20

We had 1 customer deposits:

Into Brinks:  294,471.24  oz

total customer deposit;   294,471.24  oz

We had 4 customer withdrawals:

1) Out of Delaware:  5,960.2 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  606,626.765 oz
iv) Out of JPM:  803,125.05 oz
v) Out of Scotia:  30,763.66 oz

total customer withdrawals: 1,446,475.675 oz   
we had 1   adjustments  today

i) Out of the Delaware vault:  50,797.662 oz was adjusted out of the customer and into the dealer.

Registered silver  at :  44.986 million oz
total of all silver:  164,888 million oz.

The CME reported that we had  138 notices filed for 690,000 oz.  To calculate the number of ounces that will stand in silver, I take the OI standing for May (732) and subtract out Monday's notices (138) which leaves us with 594 notices or 2,970,000 oz 
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this  active delivery month of May is as follows:

2863 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 14,315,000 +  594 contracts x 5000 oz =  2,970,000 oz ( to be served)  =  17,285,000 oz.

we gained  25,000 oz of silver standing for May today. The total standing for silver is superb for May.


The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first:

May 13.2013: (as of 6 pm est)



Value US$48.364  billion

May 10.2013:



Value US$48.222  billion

May 9.2013:



Value US$49.641  billion

 May 8.2013:



Value US$49.598  billion

may 7.2013:



Value US$49.089   billion

May 6.2013:



Value US$50.153   billion

May 3.2013:



Value US$50.311  billion

May 2.2013:



Value US$50.482   billion

May 1.2013:



Value US$50.265 billion

april 30.2013:



Value US$50.915  billion

april 29.2013:



Value US$50.963  billion

Today,  the GLD reported no change in inventory as it is exactly the same as Friday's level.

The registered  vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold will depart for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders.  As you can see, the bleeding of physical gold from this locale continues unabated. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat  (same banks)

As a reminder the total comex gold had inventories of around 11 million oz in 2011. Today it rose just above 8 million oz. (8.06 million oz)


And now for silver SLV inventories  (as of 6 pm est)

May 13.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust335,666,675.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 10.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust335,666,675.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 9.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust335,666,675.000

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust335,376,960.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

may 7.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust335,376,960.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 6.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust335,376,960.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust335,376,960.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 2.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust336,055,837.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

May 1.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust336,055,837.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

april 30.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust334,607,098.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

april 29.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust334,607,098.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

Today we neither gained nor lost any silver from the SLV vaults.  

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada. 

(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded  at negative 2.7% percent to NAV in usa funds and a negative 2.7%  to NAV for Cdn funds. ( May 13/13)   

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rose to +0.16% NAV May 13/2013
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  rose to- .11% positive to NAV May 13/ 2013.


And now for the major physical stories we faced today:

Early gold/silver trading from Asia and Europe early Friday morning

1. India imports more gold
2. China's consumption of gold continues as does it's drive to purchase international gold mines

(courtesy Goldcore) 

China’s Consumption of Gold and Acquisition of Gold Mines Continues 

-- Posted Monday, 13 May 2013 | Share this article | 1 Comment
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,429.75, EUR 1,102.52 and GBP 931.19 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,449.25, EUR 1,114.12 and GBP 941.62 per ounce.

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Gold fell $12.90 or -0.89% on Friday to $1,443.30/oz and silver finished with a gain of 0.42%. Gold and silver both traded down for the week at -1.76% and -1.25%.
The downward pressure on the gold price emanated from Comex where gold futures were off 1.9%.
Driving the sentiment was the report that U.S. jobless benefits decreased to their lowest rate since 2007. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser forecasted that day unemployment will drop to 7% by December 2013 and he favours reducing the Fed’s $85 billion monthly bond purchases next month. Plosser however has no vote on Fed policy this year.
While hedge funds are seeing outflows of $20.8 billion from gold funds this year, BlackRock Inc. the world’ biggest money manager is still bullish, reported Bloomberg.

Gold in Dollars, 1 Year – (Bloomberg)
Asian countries are seeing unprecedented demand for the yellow metal after the dip in prices in April.
India imported $7.5 billion of gold bullion in the last month up from $3.1 billion a year earlier. The country’s trade deficit widened 70% with the increase in gold and silver imports.

Gold in Euros, 1 Year – (Bloomberg)
Analysts at Sprott Group highlight that China is using its gold import data to elevate import statistics even though the precious metal should not be classified with imports since they are not used for “goods and services” but rather primarily as investments.
The golden boost to the imports data has led some analysts to conclude that the Chinese manufacturing sector is strong. According to the Bejing Daily Newspaper, Chinese housewives or “aunties” have purchased 300 tons of the yellow metal in the past three weeks amounting in nearly $16 billion. The impact of the run on physical gold in China may have a significant effect on import statistics.
Recently, China National Gold, a state-owned miner, was in talks to purchase Barrick Gold’s 74% stake in African Barrick, a major gold producer in Tanzania.
Although the deal has been shelved it shows China’s desire to acquire more mines. The Chinese purchased Norton Gold Fields in Australia last year for $240 million and in mid April bid for Kalgoorlie Mining Co. Even with the price drop the Chinese saw the price for Barrick as too steep.
China is the world’s largest producer of gold.

Precious Metals Lose Luster for Investors – Dubai Chronicle
For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.


The lower price of gold saw the fathers of many Indian brides gobble up as much gold as they could.  The gold imports surged 138% year over year.   The importation of gold amounted to 7.5  billion USA equates to approximately 166 tonnes of gold.  WOW!!!!  Remember this is one month.
No wonder the Indian authorities will try and clamp down on India's imports to help with the burgeoning  current account deficit.

(courtesy zero hedge) 

India Trade Deficit Deteriorates As Gold Imports Soar 138%

Tyler Durden's picture

India's economic boogeyman, the monthly trade deficit, continues to rear its ugly head, this and every time, driven be the country's insatiable desire for gold which is so powerful, the country took full advantage of the plunge in gold prices, and saw business imports of gold soar by 138% y/y in April, forcing the trade deficit to hit a 3 month high of $17.8 billion as more fiat left the country in return for bringing in more of the "barbarous relic." Gold imports more than doubled on both a Y/Y and sequential basis, with gold accounting for $7.5 billion, or 18% of total imports, compared to $3.1 billion in March.
From Goldman:

Main points:

India's trade deficit worsened more than expected to US$ 17.8 Bn in April after a sharp improvement in March, as per provisional data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

The surprise came from an increase in imports, led by a sharp increase in gold/silver imports which increased by 138% yoy in April. Gold imports in April were $7.5 billion, compared to $3.1 billion in March. This was driven by the sharp fall in gold prices during the month. Oil imports growth also recovered to 3.9% yoy after a sharp fall of 16.6% yoy in the previous month. However, imports growth declined sequentially.

Export growth moderated to 1.6% yoy suggesting a weaker external demand environment in April. On a qoq basis, exports were up 3.6% sa, the same as in March.
It wasn't only India where demand for gold manifested itself in the economic bottom line. Here is how gold lead to a push in Chinese retail sales:
Sequential mom in April fell to negative territory, which reflects weak aggregate demand growth. Because last April saw one of the softest sequential mom growth momentum on record (including late 2008), the yoy growth of IP was up slightly. Heavy industry IP rebounded to 9.6% yoy in April from 9.1% yoy in March, while light industry IP rebounded to 8.5% yoy in April from 8.2% yoy in March.

The slight rebound in retail sales was boosted by higher consumer prices, the rush to buy gold, which occurred towards the end of April (April jewelry sales was 72% yoy, up from 17.7% in January-March period), and strong automobile sales (which accelerated to 13.4% yoy from 10.7% in March). This is partially offset by the continued moderation in the sales of the catering industry, which saw its growth fall to 7.9% yoy from 8.7% yoy in March.
And form SocGen:
Following a sharp decline in the gold price, Chinese households’ purchase of jewellery surged 72% yoy in April, substantially faster than the 17.7% yoy in Q1. This gold rush contributed nearly 2ppt to the headline in April, up from about 1ppt in March.
So a surge in gold demand is suddenly... good economic news? Funny how that works.
As long as the price suppression of paper gold prices continues, don't expect any notable changes to both of the above trends.


By gosh!!  Just look at the demand for physical gold coming from Dubai. Normally demand is around 4.0 tonnes per month.  In the past few weeks, demand has been 50 tonnes of gold.
No wonder the LBMA is cracking:

(courtesy Vickey Kapur/United

Gold price falls to $1,420/oz: Dubai sees massive surge in bullion demand

Vicky Kapur

Published Sunday, May 12, 2013
Dubai demand for gold has been witnessing a massive surge since the price collapse of last month, with demand far outstripping supply.
Various estimates suggest that demand in the past few weeks has been nothing short of astronomical, surging by 10 times the normal demand.
According to the latest precious metals weekly report by Gerhard Schubert, Head of Precious Metals at local bank Emirates NBD, "Participants of the physical industry in Dubai believe that an additional 50 tonnes have been bought since the price crash in April. These sales figures are in addition to the ‘usual’ numbers and put a little perspective on the derivative side of the market."
The usual numbers that Schubert refers to are the same as the demand seen since April. According to World Gold Council data, total consumer demand for gold in the UAE (not just Dubai) stood at 51.8 tonnes for the entire year 2012, which means that demand was about 4.31 tonnes per month during last year.
Compared with that, as Schubert mentions, Dubai demand in the past few weeks has been 50 tonnes plus ‘usual’ numbers, in effect reflecting the massive surge in interest that gold has seen in this past few weeks.
"Physical markets have done magically well in recent weeks with people from the industry commenting on the amounts of gold bought in regional markets," wrote Schubert.
"This is the new gold rush," quipped the manager of a Mall of the Emirates outlet of a major Dubai-based gold retailer, who said he did not wish to be named as he’s not authorised to talk to the media.
"We have been running out of gold coins and bars even before they reach our stores," he added. "There are people who are ‘pre-booking’ gold bars with us, and they collect it once new supply arrives," he said.
The pre-booking that the manager refers to entails customers paying a down payment, usually 10 to 15 per cent, of the price of the gold bar to reserve it for them, and then collect it when the physical bar is supplied, at the current gold rate.
"One commentator said that the physical off-take in Hong Kong has been to the tune of 30 tonnes between the April 29 and the May 2 alone," Schubert wrote in his weekly report.
To put things in perspective, Hong King gold demand for 2012 stood at 28.5 tonnes, which mathematically means about 2.4 tonnes a month. Compares with that, the 30 tonnes off-take in four days goes on to show the massive physical support that gold has at these price levels.
"Gold refineries are currently working flat out 24/7 in order to satisfy orders from all over the world," says Schubert.
"The refineries need to borrow gold from the market in order to be able to produce the small investment bars, coins, jewellery etc. However the borrowing from the gold refineries of the world do not explain the sudden rise in borrowing cost for gold, especially with the huge amount of gold liquidity (theoretically) available from the redemptions of ETF holdings. Another possibility could be that there is renewed interest from the gold producer side to re-engage in forward hedging. ‘The Return of the Hedger’ could become another classic after the near extinction of the species in the early years of this century," he added.
All this is being amplified by the gold demand from India and China – two of the world’s top gold consumers.
"Chinese gold import numbers reached record highs, with March imports from Hong Kong reaching 224 tonnes. This means that the imports for the first quarter of 2013 have reached 378 tonnes. India has also seen record import levels. April saw imports of more than 100 tonnes and the same is expected for May. However, this might be in anticipation of increased sales for Akshaya Tritiya, but possibly more so in front of the restrictions for gold imports from the Reserve Bank of India, which are expected to come into force at the end of this month. Nevertheless, both countries, i.e. India and China, are well on their way to breach the 1,000 tonne-level for physical demand in 2013," says Schubert.
The price of an ounce of gold dipped to $1,420 intra-day on Friday, May 10, 2013, the last trading of the week, but recovered to just under $1,450 per ounce after the market closed.
"Gold prices tried and failed last week again to break the initial resistance level at $1,485. This level has now been tested twice and will provide a decent resistance level for the near future," maintains Schubert.
But f demand from Dubai and Hong Kong – not to mention India and China – is anything to go by, get ready to once again buy an ounce of gold at $1,600 sooner than later.


In segment no 3:  Al Korelin interviews John Embry on the gold and silver manipulation:

(Al Korelin/GATA)

Al Korelin interviews John Embry on gold and silver market manpulation

10:30a ET Saturday, May 11, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gold and silver market manipulation is a topic of today's Korelin Economics Report, wherein Al Korelin interviews Sprott Asset Management's John Embry. The interview is 10 minutes long and can be heard at the Segment 3 section of the Korelin Internet site here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


An important read as Alasdair MacLeod writes about his inquiry to the UK's FSA on the unregulated nature of GLD and SLV.  You will be surprised by the FSA's response:

(courtesy Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

Alasdair Macleod: GLD and SLV are not havens against crisis

12:16p ET Sunday, May 12, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes today about how his inquiry to the United Kingdom's Financial Services Authority produced an acknowledgment that the custodianship of the metal nominally held by the gold and silver exchange-traded funds GLD and SLV is not regulated by government.
As a result, Macleod concludes, there is enormous counterparty risk for GLD and SLV investors, in a financial crisis central banks more easily can seize metal held by bullion banks, and the two ETFs should not be considered havens against such a crisis. His commentary is headlined "The Role of GLD and SLV" and it's posted at GoldMoney's Internet site here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


The rigging of silver and gold is to protect the bankers.  And the guy writing this should know.
He was no 2 at the USA treasury,  Dr Paul Craig Roberts.

(courtesy Dr Paul Craig Roberts/

Paul Craig Roberts: Gold market rigging exposes a gangster state

5p ET Monday, May 13, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Former Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts today condemns the rigging of the gold and silver markets by the Federal Reserve as emblematic of a gangster state protecting banks at the expense of the public. Roberts' commentary is headlined "Gangster State America" and it's posted at his Internet site here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

And now your more important paper stories which will influence the price of gold and silver:

Your overnight sentiment

Major points:

1. Another late Sunday piece by Hilsenrath announcing further discussions on the Fed plan to tape QE.

2. Interesting it focuses on who will replace Bernanke:  Yellin, or Geithner or Summers or anybody else who are all permadoves.  How is the market going to react with any of these guys at the helm.

3. Chinese industrial production picked up at 9.3% from last month's 8.9% (expectations 9.3%)

4. Chinese consumption less sanguine at only a .2% rise to 12.8% (y/y)

5. The Euro/USA at 1.2980 does not look oversold

6.  The 10 yr USA bond yield now has risen by 30 basis points to over 1.90%

7.  Group of 7 released no communique on their meeting.  The German Fin Minister states that they had a lengthy discussion on Japan and reiterated that countries should not alter their exchange rates.

8. Discussion by Soc Gen. and Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank

(courtesy your early morning sentiment/Soc Gen/Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank/zero hedge)

Plan QE For The Hilsenrath Morning After

Tyler Durden's picture

Overnight risk continues to ignore all newsflow (today the economic reporting finally picks up with advance retail sales due at 8:30 am as expectations for a second modest decline in a row of -0.3%) and is focused entirely on what the consensus decides to make of the Hilsenrath piece, even as the difficulty level was raised a notch following another late Sunday Hilsenrath piece, which puts more variable into the "tapering" equation, and whose focus is whether Bernanke will be replaced by Janet Yellen, Geithner or Summers, or anyone. With all three classified as permadoves, one does scratch their head how the market can be confused: worst case Fed tapers by $10/20 billion per month, market tumbles, then Bernanke's replacement or Ben himself ploughs on even more aggressively with QE. QED.
As noted, overnight data was sparse with Chinese industrial production picking up 9.3% in April, from 8.9%, but just below consensus of 9.4%. Elsewhere, the consumption story was also less encouraging than suggested by retail sales growth, which ticked up by 0.2ppt to 12.8% yoy (Cons. 12.8%) in April. As SocGen explains, first of all, inflation helped. The real rate, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, moved up by just 0.1ppt to 11.8% yoy. Second, the best performing segment was jewellery sales, which had more to do with savings rather than consumption. Following a sharp decline in the gold price, Chinese households' purchase of jewellery surged 72% yoy in April, substantially faster than the 17.7% yoy in Q1. This gold rush contributed nearly 2ppt to the headline in April, up from about 1ppt in March.
Data out of Japan has become a total farce, with the various authorities making up numbers with a great flair than reality was misrepresented during the Fukushima catastrophe: how anyone can have a bearing on consumption, trade, or anything for that matter at a time of such epic flux is simply ludicrous and yet that's precisely what the local Keynesian acolytes are doing. No wonder, what they have practically achieved is a broken bond market, and a collapse in the currency, which if anything translates into a surge in local energy prices when priced in Yen. As for the stickiness of core-inflation, we'll just see about that.
In Europe, we got more of the same as ECB's Visco said if the economy needs further help the ECB will cut the deposit rate to negative territory. Nothing new, but surprising that the jawboning continues. The EUR tumbled to 1.295 on the headline but has since regained all
The rest of the overnight highlights in easy to digest, bulletin fashion courtesy of Bloomberg's daybook.
  • Treasuries reversed overnight declines, 10Y yield at 1.892%, as USD/JPY retreats below 102 level
  • Japan’s Obuchi said the government is watching bond yields carefully, 10Y yield touched highest since Feb. 6 overnight
  • Wall Street’s biggest bond dealers are starting to forecast that the U.S. Treasury will reduce the size of its debt auctions in coming months for the first time in three years as government revenue soars
  • G-7 finance chiefs indicated they will tolerate a sliding yen for now as they intensified their focus on Japan’s recovery strategy
  • European policy makers expressed a willingness to consider new ways to revive their ailing economy as they confronted fresh U.S. pressure to take action
  • The improving U.S. housing market and declining unemployment won’t ignite the nation’s economy unless companies start spending, Citigroup CEO Michael Corbat said in Bloomberg interview
  • Yellen, Geithner, Summers seen as Fed chair contenders, WSJ reported; Bernanke may accept another term
  • Fed plans to cut amount of bond purchases in careful steps, changing buying level based on confidence in employment market, inflation, WSJ reports, citing unidentified officials
  • At least two congressional committees plan to hold hearings on the U.S. Internal Revenue Service’s admission that it targeted for special attention groups promoting limited government
  • China’s industrial production rose 9.3% Y/y in April vs est. +9.4%; fixed-asset investment increased 20.6% YTD through April vs est. 21.0%; retail sales climbed 12.8% Y/y in April, matching median forecast of economists
  • Yuan declines for second day, down 0.08% to 6.1468 per dollar, after central bank lowers fixing by 0.09% to 6.2072
  • China may widen yuan trading band soon, most likely to 2%: Shanghai Securities News cites unidentified “people in the industry”
  • Sovereign yields mixed; Japanese yields rise, peripheral spreads widen over Germany. Nikkei +1.2%, Shanghai -0.22%. European stocks and U.S. stock-index futures lower; WTI crude falls for third day, as OPEC boosted output to highest level in 5 mos.; gold, metals lower
SocGen's take on the key macro events and notable FX levels
A wild end to last week across asset markets caused by a surge in the USD prompted a battering of the safe haven currencies, JPY and CHF, and caused gold and other commodities to surrender a chunky portion of the gains registered in April. The repatriation from emerging market currencies added to the USD bid, and with central banks set to keep the monetary taps open, the trend is not over. UST 10y yields are up nearly 30bp this month and even following a lurch above 1.90%, EUR/USD does not look oversold below 1.2996. Nor does the violation of the trend channel in cable at 1.5355 augur well for sterling which looks set for further downside, even though GBP remains an attractive proposition vs currencies like the AUD ahead of this week's Inflation Report from the BoE.
With USD/JPY racing through stops and taking out options barriers in quick succession, the US swaps curve has steepened hard on further PRDC note hedging (these are dual currency notes popular in Japan that pay out foreign coupons in the domestic currency; as the JPY weakens, the coupon rises). Having closed above 2.00% for the first time in four weeks, US 10y swaps look destined for a return to the March highs of 2.17%. Bond bulls will be braced for a strong US retail sales report this afternoon, but whether a soft number is enough to temper bearish momentum remains to be seen. If the squeeze in USD/JPY continues, swaps are likely to follow. To what extent the equity market can absorb the correction in bond markets and rising mortgage rates is difficult to predict, but as we set out earlier in the year, with the US housing market on a solid footing, a gradual unwind in long bonds from QE is unlikely to cause a major setback in risk.
The way in which bunds and EU swaps underperformed the US on Friday (higher rates) is unnerving and puzzling at the same time given the gulf in performance between US and eurozone economies. It is a testimony however to how asset classes correlate in times of stress. Remarkably, peripheral bonds held their ground and spreads over bunds compressed even further as the grab for yield continues. Italian bonds have rallied immensely over the last couple of weeks, and how much appetite there is for BTPs even at the current compressed yield levels will emerge from today's BTP auction. Peripheral yields are no longer driving the EUR, so the auction results should not be a major factor, especially with US retail sales following closely behind. ECB data last week showed its balance sheet has shrunk to EUR2.608trn, the lowest level since December 2011. But relative differences in size between ECB and Fed balance sheets have equally become irrelevant for EUR/USD.
Jim Reid from DB recaps the majority of overnight events
After last week’s lull, the data calendar picks up again this week with a number of important pulse-readings on the real economy. The data flow kicks off with retail  sales in the US today where the market is expecting the second straight month-on-month contraction in April (-0.3% estimate vs -0.4% previous). It will be a fairly full week of data in the US with the NY Fed releasing its Q1 household debt report on Tuesday followed by the Empire manufacturing report on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, the April industrial production (-0.2% vs. +0.4%) print is due. On Thursday, April’s CPI is scheduled where the consensus is expecting the first back-to-back decrease in consumer prices (-0.3% estimated vs -0.2% expected) since 2008, driven by declining energy prices. Thursday’s housing starts, permits and the Philly Fed reading for May round out the week’s US data flow.
In Europe, the initial focus will be on the two-day Eurogroup/ECOFIN meeting beginning today. In terms of data, Tuesday’s ZEW Survey and Euroarea industrial production, Wednesday’s flash Q1 GDP estimates and Thursday’s Euroarea CPI are the main data updates. The UK sees both employment data and the BoE’s inflation report on Wednesday. In Asia, China’s industrial production and retail sales data are due as we go to print this morning. Highlights on the Japanese weekly calendar include machine tools order (Tues) and Q1 preliminary GDP and industrial production (Thurs).
On the micro side although US earnings season is drawing to a close, the Japanese annual reporting season will be important to keep an eye on this week in light of the Abe-inspired 70%+ rise in the Nikkei since Q3 last year. A number of major Japanese banking and corporate groups will be providing earnings./outlook updates this week which will provide an update on how monetary policies have impacted the economy. In the US, Cisco (Wed) and Walmart (Thurs) are amongst the last companies reporting.
Returning to markets, the yen continues to be in focus after briefly trading above 102 during the Asian session this morning before meeting resistance. Over the weekend, G7 finance ministers and central bankers reaffirmed their February commitment to “not target exchange rates”, according to UK Chancellor Osborne. Though a communiqué was not released, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said after the meeting that "we had a very intense discussion about Japan with our Japanese colleagues." Other topics discussed included the scope for slower austerity in Europe and potential asset purchases by the ECB. Draghi did say that there wasn’t a call for the ECB to take further steps to ease policy, playing down suggestions that the ECB was considering a program similar to the Bank of England's Funding for Lending Scheme (Reuters).
On a separate but related note, the Dollar index continues its recent strength (+0.2% overnight), helped by a much-anticipated Hilsenrath WSJ article on the potential for a winding down in the Fed’ QE program. While containing little additional information, especially on the timing of the wind down, the article mentioned that Fed officials have mapped out a strategy to eventually slow asset purchases in “potentially halting steps”, varying their rates of purchases as confidence about the job markets and inflation evolves. The WSJ writes that officials are focusing on clarifying the strategy so markets don't overreact about their next moves.
In other overnight markets, Asian equities have started the week on a softer footing with most major indices trading in the red ahead of today’s industrial production and retail sales numbers from China. The Nikkei is outperforming (+1.2%) on the back of the continued yen depreciation. Elsewhere the Aussie dollar is trading 0.5% weaker against the USD, and is poised to close weaker against the greenback for the sixth straight session.
Returning briefly to last Friday, there were a few jitters in credit markets on Friday after news that the Manchester-based mutual Co-Operative Bank was downgraded six notches by Moodys to Ba3 from A3. Moody’s flagged a potential capital shortfall arising from further substantial losses on the bank’s real-estate exposures. Co-Op's subordinated bonds reportedly sold off more than 20 points on Friday, which briefly affected sentiment in other financials. The bank said that it does not need government support and Bloomberg is reporting that it will sell large parts of its business to bolster capital ratios. As of 30 June 2012, the bank’s market share among UK monetary financial institutions was 0.68%, based on total consolidated assets of £48bn, according to Moody’s. Despite the jitters, credit markets had another solid week. Indeed, Reuters reported that 25 US high yield deals totalling USD11.185bn priced last week and the majority were reportedly some three to four times oversubscribed with most generally performing on the break.
So stand by for a busier data week. Will we see the fundamentals start to catch-up with the very supportive technicals or will it confirm the widening divergence between the two.


Yra Harris discusses what is going on behind the scenes:

(courtesy Yra Harris/Notes from the Underground)

Notes From Underground: Why Are The G-7 Finance Ministers Meeting In England This Weekend?

May 12.2013:

There was a Reuters story yesterday by William Schomberg, “G7 Finance Chiefs to Discuss Bank Reform Push.” Very few people picked up on this but it seems strange that all the sudden a meeting is called  to discuss what elements of  bank reform. Are they going to try to persuade Germany to get behind the EU push for a banking union and if so why the hurry before the September German elections? The idea of a banking union with resolution authority is sure to be a lightening rod for all the German angst about the bailouts of the peripheral nations. The Reuters piece notes that some G-7 officials are upset that the U.K. called the meeting so soon after the recent IMF talks in Washington. One official said, “I am really annoyed I’ve got to give up my weekend for this.”
This leads me to believe that there must be a simmering problem coming to the boil. Something upset the market today and caused a large rally in the DOLLAR. It could not have been the rumor of the Jon Hilsenrath piece about the FED moving to tapering ofQE for that is an old story. (I am really getting tired of all the nonsense tweets, especially the Hilsenrath leaks. This is definitely something to pay attention to tomorrow to this if the G-7 gains traction.)
***In another piece, Der Spiegel Online ran a story, “German Central Bank Head Blasts France.” I will continually stress that the main political battle may be the Bundesbank versus the EU. The German central bank is the bastion of “hard money” and is fighting hard about the German polity surrendering monetary and financial rectitude to the French and other profligate countries. The European Commission is prepared to grant France two years to get its budget deficit in-line with EU rules. President Jens Weidmann admonished the EU Commission and German politicians: “To win back trust, we can’t just establish rules and then promise to fulfil them at some point in the future. They have to be filled with life,” Weidmann said.
What seemed to have set Weidmann a flutter was France’s Finance Minister Moscovici’s remarks after the Brussels meeting: “We don’t want excessive consolidation for our country, we don’t want austerity beyond what is necessary.” The battle lines are being drawn and it appears that the BUNDESBANK is hellbent on reasserting its authority. This will not be a side-show but the main conflict.
***Shots fired, currency down. For all those who have denied the existence of a currency war, it is time for capitulation. The Aussies cut rates because the strong Aussie dollar is creating problems for Aussie business. The South Koreans cut interest rates because the weak Japanese yen is impacting the Korean export sector. The Swedes are bemoaning the strength of the kroner and threatening some type of intervention. And the RBNZ  actually intervenes to stem the rise of the KIWI and sells its own currency.
Coupled with the South Korean rate cut was a Financial Timesstory, “Japan Overtakes S.Korea In Car Wars.” Toyota reported its fiscal year profits tripled and predicted a forty percent increase in profits for the new year. Honda reported large profit increases and even SONY was back in the black. More importantly, Japanese automakers plan to use the increased profits to ramp up R&D thus not sitting on their successes but ramping up their product lines. Currency wars: nothing to see here. Oh, did I mention an unscheduled G-7 meeting taking place in the U.K. this weekend?


 Japan's Abe and Kuroda seems to be losing control of the Japanese bond market with another rise in the 5 and 10 yr bond  (9 basis point rise)

JGB Futures Halted (Again) For Biggest 2-Day Plunge Since Lehman; 5Y Yields Hit 13 Month Highs

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Another night; another Japanese government bond futures halt.The last 2 days have seen JGB prices plunge at the fastest rate since the post-Lehman debacles in Sept/Oct 2008 smashing back to 13 month highs. 5Y yields are surging even more - trading above 34bps now (up from 9.9bps on March 5th).These are simply astronomical moves in the context of JGB history and strongly suggest Abe & Kuroda are anything but in control of the quadrillion Yen domestic bond market as they jawbone inflation expectations into the psychology of the people. Of course, the Nikkei is surging (now up 9% in the last 5 days alone) amid JPY breaking above 102 (but for now it has rallied back to 101.80). Japanese interest rate implied volatility is surging once again also (after its epic collapse last week - which appears the worst-timed lifting of hedges ever, or more like a lifting of hedges into an unwind of actual long positions).
The last 2 days (since JPY broke 100) have been tempestuous at best!!

with 10Y JGB Futures prices seeing their biggest 2-day selloff since Lehman...

and 5Y Yields smashing higher to 13 month highs at the fastest rate in 30 months...

as JPY goes from weakness to weakness...

and Japanese interest rate vol is rising rapidly once again (which will likely put pressure on banks to reduce risk budgets or unwind positions markedly)...

Charts: Bloomberg


The Japanese 10 yr bond closing yield:  (climbing 9 basis points)

Japan Govt Bond Year to maturity 10 Year Simple Yield


0.790.09 13.08%
As of 01:32:00 ET on 05/13/2013.

Chinese Power Consumption Collapses: Economic Growth Slowest Since Early 2009

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Not much to add here. If there still is any confusion why China is desperately manipulating its economic data, so balatantly in fact that virtually everyone has now noticed, this chart should put all doubt to rest. According to CLSA's Chris Wood using NEA data, China's monthly power consumption (the most accurate proxy for underlying economic strength according to the current premier) growth slowed from 5.5% YoY in Jan-Feb 2013 to 1.9% YoY in March, the slowest growth rate since May 2009 (as discussed in-depth here).
And just to make CNBC's life easier, we will prespin this data: the lack of growth merely shows there is much pent up growth on the sidelines, even if the country is now injecting more debtto just maintain the flatline, than ever.

Spanish prelate fears ‘mutual hatred’ over euro crisis
The Catholic Primate of Spain has called for a profound shift in Europe's debt crisis policy to avert social collapse, warning that soaring unemployment in Spain and across southern Europe has become "very dangerous".
Braulio Rodriguez, the Archbishop of Toledo, has warned that soaring unemployment in Spain and across southern Europe has become "very dangerous".  
 By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in Toledo
3:50PM BST 12 May 2013
Telegraph UK
"We have to change direction, otherwise this is going to bring down whole political systems," said Braulio Rodriguez, the Archbishop of Toledo.
"It is very dangerous. Unemployment has reached tremendous levels and austerity cuts don't seem to be producing results," he told The Telegraph.
"There is deep unease across the whole society, and it is not just in Spain. We have to give people some hope or this is going to foment conflict and mutual hatred."
Europe's Catholic bishops have been careful not to stray into the political debate or criticise EU economic strategy but the Archbishop said the current course is untenable.
"The Vatican has always been an enthusiast for Europe, but a Europe of solidarity where we help each other, not a Europe of coal and steel. Whether this is possible depends on Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel," he said.
Unemployment in Spain has reached 6.2m, or 27pc, despite a growing diaspora of young Spaniards seeking work in Britain, Germany, Brazil, or the Gulf, and an exodus of immigrants returning home. Spain's population fell by 0.7pc last year.
The jobless rate in the Toledo region of Castilla-La Mancha is 31pc. The rate for youth has jumped to 64pc from 14pc at the peak of the credit bubble.
Spain has largely avoided the sort of street clashes seen in Greece. People have coped with stoicism, drawing on the deep strengths of Spanish family support. Yet the authority of the state is eroding. A new Metroscopia poll shows that 87pc of voters have lost confidence in premier Mariano Rajoy.
El Mundo fears a slow-fermenting 'crisis of the regime', with almost every institution -- including the monarchy -- in disrepute. It likens the mood to "pre-revolutionary" France in the late 1780s.
The Archbishop, speaking in the austere episcopal palace of Spain's ancient capital, said the current crisis is doing far more damage than the recession in the mid-1990s when unemployment briefly spiked above 24pc. On that occasion peseta devaluations let Spain regain competitiveness and recover gradually despite austerity cuts.
This time the country seems trapped in slump. The long-term jobless rate is much higher. Unemployment benefits taper off after six months, and stop after two years. There are almost two million households where no family member has a job.
Europe's Catholic bishops know first-hand from their Cor Unum charitable network just how desperate it has become. "We can try to mitigate the effects by giving basic help to people left totally unprotected, but we can't create jobs," said the Archbishop.
"We are seeing families who used to middle class needing help. This is totally new. As a matter of honour, they won't come to us until they have exhausted everything,"
The Archbishop said the COMECE forum of European bishops is spear-heading a push for change, drawing on social doctrines dating back to Pope Leo XIII.
The eminence grise is Munich Cardinal Reinhard Marx, author of "Das Kapital: A Plea for Man". The firebrand cardinal has been picked by Pope Francis for his eight-man team of policy advisers at the Vatican.
Europe's churches are emerging as a powerful pole of authority, filling a vacuum left by political parties of all stripes tainted by the crisis. German leaders may be more ready to heed criticism from the Vatican and their own clergy than from Club Med politicians.
Spain's economic malaise has prompted protests.
Marisa Martinez, the volunteer director of Caritas in Toledo, said the Catholic charity is now helping 40,000 people in a province of 700,000, often with bags of food. Each family receives 12 kilos a month, mostly beans, oil, milk, and pasta. "We pass on whatever we get in donations. It is all done quietly to protect the dignity of the families. They take the food away and cook it at home," she said.
This task is becoming harder as more people are evicted for mortgage default, the now infamous "desahucios" that have led to two high-profile suicides. The Spanish government froze evictions for the most vulnerable families in November. A thousand people are still losing their homes each week, though this is less than often claimed . "They are just thrown onto the street," she said.
The region of Andalucia plans to block evictions by expropriating homes from banks but the European Commission has warned that this may violate the terms of Spain's EMU bank bail-out. "If that is so, it is not worth being part of Europe," said Jose Antonio Grinan, Andalucia's leader.
Repossessions in Spain are unusually harsh since creditors can pursue debtors for all their assets and dock future income on tough terms even after bankruptcy, with an hereditary element unique to the country. Most US states abolished such "debt servitude" laws in the 19th Century, deeming them Medieval.
Pickets of protestors have been swooping on the homes of leading cabinet ministers demanding a change in the law. Premier Mariano Rajoy has denounced the campaign as "intimidation".
In Toledo there is a glut of unsold properties, causing rents to collapse. Caritas is leasing unsellable flats back from the banks for as little as €200 a month to house the homeless, but this is draining their funds.
Mrs Martinez said Caritas had not received any of its usual subsidies from the Castilla-La Mancha government so far this year. "January went by, then February, March, and now it is May, and nothing has arrived. They want to help, but they are broke too. We don't know from one day to the next what we are going to do," she said.
Caritas's team of 2,000 volunteers in Toledo -- almost all unpaid -- are running workshops to retrain the unemployed or to keep youth off the streets. One group of jobless school-leavers in the Toledo barrio of Poligono laughed bitterly when asked if there was any work. Some wanted to know much English they would need to find jobs in London. Others talked of Latin America as the new El Dorado, if only they could get there.
There were jobs until 2011 in the nearby Toledo Hospital, intended to be the biggest in Europe, a €450m Pharonic project begun by the previous Socialist government with co-funding from the European Investment Bank. Construction stopped when the money ran out, leaving a spectral half-built scar on the landscape.
Prime minister Rajoy is pinning his hopes on recovery later this year, but admits that there will be few fresh jobs until 2016 even if all goes to plan. By then this group of youngsters may be scarred for life.
The Archbishop said the debt crisis is a symptom of a deeper malaise. The roots lie in the "moral disarmament" of the last quarter century. A `get-rich-quick' culture of "stupid consumption" and "deranged indebtment" has corrupted public life. Children have been brought up to wallow in self-gratification.
"This is common to the whole of Western Europe. It goes back to the core issues of moral philosophy, of what we are as human beings. It is here that we must search for a way out of the impasse," he said.


Now It's Britain's Turn To Choose

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From Mark Grant, author of Out Of The Box
Now Britain Will Choose And Hopefully Choose Wisely
“An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile—hoping it will eat him last.”

        -Winston Churchill
Next week the House of Commons is going to vote on whether to stay in the European Union. It will not be an up and down vote on the subject but it will carry the same weight. The moment has finally arrived; at least for the politicians, though not for the citizens yet. I would like to take a moment and remind Mr. Cameron of Mr. Churchill's famous quote; noted above.
Britain may have been an equal partner in the European Union at inception but now they are a vastly minimized member of the clan. The Brits congratulate themselves that they avoided a number of problems by keeping their own currency. I say to my cousins, "Don't be in such a hurry to pat yourselves on the back." The simple truth is the England should never have joined the European Union at all. It was a great mistake that they now pay for not just with their currency but with an outside group trying and somewhat succeeding in running their country. Regulation by regulation, directive by directive; the Germans gain control.
“If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.”

       -Winston Churchill
I am not impolite but neither will I ignore the truth and dance around it in the name of proper European etiquette. I have been told, more than once, that it is not socially acceptable to mention the German past or what they are trying to do in the present. Yes, well, I am a tougher boy than that.
We do not even need to get to motivation. It is not necessary to undertake the tricky subject of just what the Germans are trying to accomplish. We can just remain on the surface and avoid that discussion. The simple truth is, for whatever reasons, that the Germans are totally in control of the European Union. Even France, once a partner, has been thrust aside. There are the Germans and then there is everyone else. The ball is called in Berlin and Brussels is just a front for the ambitions of the Germans and to think anything else is a colossal mistake.
If England does not wake up and recognize what is happening then it will be Neville Chamberlin all over again. Appeasement is never a good answer and today no war is threatened just financial domination. Over time, if Britain remains in the European Union, they will get pushed down into the mud, lose their ability to govern themselves, watch as their financial institutions get trampled by Frankfurt. The Germans will force them into a space presently occupied by Greece, Slovenia and Cyprus. Retribution for two World Wars will finally be won in Berlin.
In Europe today there are no tanks rumbling through the countryside. There are no bullets being fired across anyone's boundaries. What there is, however, is a war of domination and control being fought with money and the German's are winning the battle.
I will go further; there is no longer a European Union. The concept now exists just in name only. There is a German Reich and a bunch of appeased nations that cling to it. Money and trade are both the carrots and the sticks and Berlin uses both side of this coin effectively. It is a very clever ploy; Germany prospers as their neighbors suffer and the capital of a Continent is used to prop up the ambitions and lifestyle of a single nation.
Next week the British will decide for themselves as is their current right. However, my friends, if you decide incorrectly you may no longer be granted the right to make such a decision again as Brussels declares your right to decide "Verboten" sometime in the future. The directive may come from Belgium but the policy will be formulated in Berlin. Choose wisely now while you are still allowed to choose.


The Argentinian purchase of Spain's Repsol is now in trouble as Argentina needs to raise more USA dollars.  Whenever a state takes over any asset like Repsol, it assuredly falls in value due to neglect and lack of know- how in the running of the company.  Now Argentina is planning a fool hardy attempt to repatriate much money hidden by tax evaders.  Kirchener now is planning an amnesty for these tax dodgers as long as they buy bonds to finance the Repsol purchase.  The bonds will yield 4% and denominated in USA dollars:

(courtesy zero hedge)  

Argentina's Modest Proposal: Buy Bonds Or Go To Jail

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While Argentina's recent extraordinary attempts at central planning have been widely documented, ranging from freezing supermarket prices in a (failed) attempt to control inflation, to banning advertising in a (failed) attempt to weaken the private media, so far nothing has worked at stabilizing the economy and preventing the collapse in the domestic currency (if leading to such humorous viral videos as #mequieroir). Ironically, this is both good and bad news. It is good news because as weshowed two days ago, even the ludicrous speed rise in the Nikkei has been a snail's pace compared to that other unknown "Nation 1." We can now reveal that while Japan is Nation 2, Nation 1 is that inflationary basket case Argentina, and specifically its Merval stock index.
Of course, the surge in the stock index is nothing more than a reflection of the ongoing collapse in the economy, which in turn is reflected not by the official, government controlled exchange of the ARS (just try buying dollars at the official rate) which closed the week at a rate of 5.24 to the dollar, then certainly the black market one, showing just how weak the currency is for those who actually want to buy dollars in Argentina, which just hit a record high of over 10. In fact, as the chart below shows, when one factors in the 80% collapse in the real, unofficial exchange rate over the same time period, the stock index has barely kept up.
Furthermore, it is merely a time before the runaway inflation pushes corporate input costs so high, that not even the rise in the stock market can preserve wealth.
Still think soaring stock prices in the New Normal are an indication of anything but a collapse in the economy manifested by either current, or discounted, plunges in the purchasing power of a sovereign's currency?
And just to make sure there is no confusion, the full context here is that while the rest of the G-0 world at least has each other's central banks to fund mutual debt purchases, Argentina has been locked out from the global community for a variety of reasons. And yet, like any other Keynesian follower, the nation is desperate to borrow from the future in order to grow government now. However, without access to capital markets how will the country with the imploding currency do this?
Argentina's president Kirchner, a keen observer of recent events in Cyprus, has figured out a way to kill two birds with one stone, namely attempt to put an end to tax evasion, and fund the capex of the recently nationalized state oil company YPF (now that its former owner, Spainish Repsol, is less than keen to keep investing in its former Argentine subsidiary). To do that she will present the local tax-evading population (pretty much anyone with any disposable income and savings) with a simple choice:buy a 4% bond to fund YPF "growth" or go to prison.
From Bloomberg:
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner wants tax evaders hiding about $160 billion in dollars to help finance Argentina’s oil-producing ambitions. Her offer: Buy a 4 percent bond or face the prospect of jail time.
The tax authority announced the plan May 7, highlighting its information-sharing agreements with 40 nations and warning Argentines who don’t use the three-month amnesty window that they risk fines or arrest. Evaders have two options for their cash and the only one paying interest will be a dollar bond due in 2016 to finance YPF SA (YPF), the state oil company. The 4 percent rate is a third the average 13.85 yield on Argentine debt and less than the 4.6 percent in emerging markets.
Speaking of YPF's growth, we made it very clear a year agowhen we reported on the latest "banana republic" nationalization of formerly efficient and private assets, that it was only a matter of time before an overarching government's epic misallocation of resources, leads to epic inefficiencies, and a liquidity scramble. It is not rocket science: only hardcore socialists can harbor any hope that a government is efficient at allocating capital, especially when one nets out the 50% or so in corruption "externalities" that are incurred along the way, be it in Argentina or the US. Once again we were right:
A year after seizing YPF, Fernandez is funneling more money into the nation’s energy industry as the government struggles to boost production from the world’s third-biggest shale oil reserves. With Argentina already committed to pumping $2 billion of central bank reserves into a fund for energy investments and the highest borrowing costs in emerging markets keeping it from issuing debt abroad, the government is eyeing the billions of undeclared dollars that Argentines hold to help shore up reserves that have dwindled to a six-year low.

“The authorities need to take steps to open up external resources in the energy sector and to finance the Treasury and local governments,” said Sebastian Vargas, a New York-based analyst at Barclays Plc. “The amnesty is not negative for markets but it’s disappointing because they do little to solve balance-of-payment difficulties.”
There are some cynics who will say what Argentina is doing on a semi-voluntary basis is what that other bastion of wealth expropriation, the European Union, did to Cypriot savers. They will be right of course, if only for the simple reason that Argentina does not know precisely where all the "illegal" tax-evading, offshore (and onshore) capital is held.
Argentines have at least $160 billion of undeclared funds, equal to about 36 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, and $40 billion are hidden inside the country, Vice Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said at the May 7 press conference where he and other senior officials presented the amnesty.

Many Argentines hide assets to avoid a 35 percent income tax and a levy of as much as 1.25 percent on their personal wealth. Undeclared assets are also beyond the reach of the government, which in 1989 seized bank certificates of deposit in exchange for bonds and in 2002 converted dollar deposits into pesos.
In other words, unlike in Europe, where Russia's 'tax-efficient' billionaires had a bright shining red light blinking over Cyprus saying "we are here" (a light that is now blinking over Luxembourg, Lichtenstein and of course, Switzerland, not to mention other global offshore tax havens), in Argentina the government first has to find the money. Which is why its initial recourse is the conventional one: simple threats.
Those joining the plan would be immune from prosecution and won’t be forced to pay past-due taxes, said Ricardo Echegaray, head of the tax agency. The search for evaders, which includes cross-checking information on income and personal wealth reports with purchases of real estate and cars, foreign travel and credit card purchases, will continue, Echegaray said.

“You better bring your dollars back because we will find you,” Echegaray said at the May 7 press conference. Last year, tax collection in South America’s second-largest economy rose to 37 percent of gross domestic product from 16.5 percent in 2002, according to Economy Ministry data.

Former Vice Economy Minister Roberto Feletti, who is now a congressman for Fernandez’s Victory Front alliance, said the government expects to attract at least $5 billion under the program.
Good luck with that - the only thing Argentina will succeed is in forcing tax evaders to hide their money even deeper into the global shadow economy.
The amnesty program will probably fail because its benefits don’t outweigh investors’ mistrust of the government’s ability to rein in inflation, cut spending, attract foreign investment and restore confidence in the currency, according to Moody’s Analytics Inc.

“The problem the government faces is lack of credibility and lack of confidence,” Juan Pablo Fuentes, an economist at Moody’s, said in a telephone interview from West Chester, Pennsylvania. “That money is potentially there, it could come back eventually, but there needs to be a lot of changes. These bonds are not going to have any real impact.”
And in the meantime YPF, which can't afford to wait on capital infusion, will have less and less cash with which to operate and grow, until finally it is mothballed, dimming the one bright light in Argentina's economy, and leading to an even faster economic contraction, even more rapid devaluation of the Peso, if only in the black market of course, and an ever faster surge in inflation.
But at least the stock market will be off the charts: sounds like a fair exchange for yet another economy sent to an early grave by central planners.


 Early Monday morning currency crosses   (8 am)

Monday morning we  see a tiny euro weakness against the dollar from the close on Friday  with this time still trading now below  the  1.30 mark at 1.2980.  The yen this  morning, is still bleeding profusely  against  the dollar,    101.60 yen to the dollar.  The pound, this morning is a touch stronger against the USA dollar, falling staying below  the 1.54 column at 1.5337. The Canadian dollar is the only currency holding its own, yet it too is a   a touch weaker  against the dollar at 1.0108.   We have the sentiment this morning with a mainly  risk off situation with all of our European  bourses  in the red.   The Nikkei exchange  was also down considerably.     Gold and silver are mixed  in the early morning, with gold trading at $1433.00 (down $3.80 ) and silver is at $23.68 up 5 cents in early morning European trading.

The USA index is down this morning by 13 cents at 83.13

Euro/USA    1.2980  down  .0006
USA/yen  101.6  up 0.010
GBP/USA     1.5337 up .0006
USA/Can      1.0108 up .0011


And now your closing Spanish 10 year bond yield: ( up 09 in yield)



4.290.09 2.05%
As of 11:59:00 ET on 05/13/2013.

Your Italian 10 year bond yield;  (rise of 09 in yield )

Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield



3.980.09 2.21%
As of 11:59:00 ET on 05/13/2013.


Key crosses tonight at 5 pm:

The Euro weakened a little throughout this afternoon closing just just below the 1.30 mark at 1.2970.  The yen also weakened in the afternoon  closing at 101.82.  The pound collapsed again  this afternoon, closing  at 1.5295.  The Canadian dollar remained constant this afternoon  against the dollar closing at 1.0108.

The USA index rose big time this afternoon  from the morning session with the final index number up 1 cents to 83.27

Euro/USA    1.2970 down  .0020
USA/Yen  101.82  up 0.24
GBP/USA     1.5295  down .0069
USA/Can      1.0107 up .0010


Your closing figures from Europe today. 

i) England/FTSE  up 6.78  .10%

ii) Paris/CAC  down 8.63  .22%
iii) German DAX: up 0.7 points or  .01% 
iv) Spanish ibex down 86.2 or 1.01%

v) Italian bourse (MIB) down 112.51  0.65%

and the Dow down 26.81 points  .18%  


And now for your important USA stories:

Detroit, runs out of cash next month. it looks like this city must default:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Detroit May Run Out Of Cash Next Month

Tyler Durden's picture

Another day, another US city on the brink of insolvency. This time it's Detroit, whose recently appointed emergency financial manager Kevyn Orr said may run out of cash next month and must cut costs such as long-term debt and retiree obligations.According to Bloomberg, "Orr’s report says the cost of $9.4 billion in bond, pension and other long-term liabilities is sapping the ability to provide such basic services as public safety and transportation. He listed cutting debt principal, retiree benefits and jobs among options he may take. “No one should underestimate the severity of the financial crisis,” He called his report "a sobering wake-up call about the dire financial straits the city of Detroit faces."
Funny, the above bolded sentence, because we have long since crossed into a stage where absolutely everyone is underestimating the severity of the financial crisis, which incidentally is long over if one listens to the broader media. As for Detroit, may we suggest the same medicine that the "expert economists" prescribe for every other instance of overlevered insolvency: just issue more debt. Surely with worthless Greek bonds soaring, there must be some Japanese investment funds that can't wait to buy up all that paper on nothing but promises of untold riches courtesy of the endless carry trade that apparently can do no wrong.
Then again, Detroit may not be Greece:
The Motor City is caught in a downward spiral of revenue from a shrinking tax base -- it has lost two-thirds of its postwar peak population -- while unemployment at 18 percent is twice the state level, according to Orr’s report. Managing an area larger than Boston, San Francisco and Manhattan combined has become increasingly difficult.

“Without a significant restructuring of its debt, the city will be unable to break the cycle of damaging cutbacks in essential municipal services and investments,” according to Orr’s report. He also cited the need for concessions from unions, and revamping the police and fire departments to protect residents beset by crime and arson-inviting blight.

Detroit’s long-term obligations are at least $15.7 billion, including unfunded pension and retirement benefits. The general fund this fiscal year, with revenue of about $1.1 billion, will pay about $461 million for debt and health costs, according to the report.

All the city’s revenue couldn’t pay off its debt in 20 years, said Bill Nowling, a spokesman for Orr.

“If we don’t change and restructure, we are going to run out of cash,” he said yesterday by telephone. “That shouldn’t come as a shock to anybody.”
Maybe Detroit can pull a Cyprus and just confiscate a few billion from the savings accounts of the locals. Oh wait.
So with that option out of the picture, the only other one is to scare everyone into the domino theory of M.A.D. unless someone ponies up and injects some more good money after bad:
“We want to be very clear and strong: This is exactly the situation the city is in, and our creditors need to know that,” Nowling said. “Some do. A lot don’t.”

Orr’s plan lays out alternatives for dealing with long-term debts, including reducing interest rates, stretching out payment schedules, outright forgiveness of principal or refinancing. The city’s credit rating is below investment grade.

It will be difficult to reach consensus among debt holders, said Doug Bernstein, a bankruptcy lawyer with Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based Plunkett Cooney PC. Curbing pension benefits will be crucial to gaining an agreement from bondholders to cut debt costs without resorting to bankruptcy-court protection, he said.

“That’s an optimistic view, that you can do it by consensus,” Bernstein said. “Maybe when they read the numbers, they’ll agree. But given the number of different credit classes and collective-bargaining units, I don’t see them conceding voluntarily.”
So if a collective effort of sticking heads in the sand here is out of the question, the only other option is bankruptcy. Sure enough:
Orr’s report is probably a prelude to the city’s seeking Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, said Manny Grillo, the New York-based head of restructuring practices for Goodwin Procter LLP. He said there are too many creditors, including 48 employee unions, to reach a consensus without court intervention.

“No one is ever going to be the first to cut a deal,” Grillo said. Michigan, led by Republican Governor Rick Snyder, may step in with financial help “to fill in the gaps” only after deals have been struck to lower debt costs, Grillo said.
And just in case there is any confusion about what the future holds for the once proud headquarters of America's automotive genius, the next steps include the city going dark. Literally.
Orr wants to continue an effort to turn over the aging streetlight system to a public lighting authority by 2020. The plan calls for eliminating almost half of 88,000 streetlights, concentrating replacements in more populous areas. The plan also says Detroit should exit the business of supplying electricity to businesses and municipal operations.
Finally, the vision of the creator of RoboCop, which was set in a crime-ridden Detroit in the "near-future" seems to have been 100% spot on:
Hiring a new police chief and restructuring the department will happen soon, Nowling said. Given cuts in the city workforce over the past few years, additional employees may be needed in the short term to implement more efficient practices, including the replacement of outdated computer systems, according to Orr’s plan.
So will the Detroit PD soon be staffed entirely by bulletproof cyborgs as a cost-cutting strategy? Perhaps they can be funded by whatever profits the robotic vacuum tubes that are the only traders left in this farce of a market. And what happens once said robocops begin a universal suffrage and demand a legal right to vote in one of their robotic brethren into public office?
Surely, more insane things have happened in the new centrally planned abnormal.


Retail sales rise by .1%

the official release courtesy of the Dow Jones newswires:

DJ U.S. Retail Sales Rise 0.1%, Beat Expectations
Mon May 13 08:30:10 2013 EDT

WASHINGTON--U.S consumers spent more at most retailers in April, offsetting a big decline in sales at gas stations, signaling that shoppers are gaining confidence about the economic recovery.
Retail and food service sales grew by 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted $419.03 billion, the Commerce Department said Monday. The figure was up 3.7% from a year ago.
The report beat expectations--economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.4% decline. Retail sales are a key component of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of demand in the U.S. economy.
Spending at gasoline stations dropped 4.7%, the largest decline since December 2008. That reflected lower regular gasoline prices in April. The decline is expected to continue for the summer vacation season, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Sales rose for automobiles, building materials, at clothing stores and shopping online, the Commerce Department report said. Those figures indicate consumers are likely spending their discretionary income on items beyond necessities. Spending at grocery stores declined.
Retail sales excluding gasoline, automobiles and building materials--a figure watched closely by economists who use it as a truer gauge of consumer behavior--was up 0.50% in April, the Commerce Department said.
April's increase in overall retail sales came after a downwardly revised 0.5% fall in March.


Now the real numbers:  if you use just the unadjusted numbers, sales in April declined by 2.5%.
Quite a difference.

The Golden Truth also tackles the tapering announced in the Wall Street Journal on Friday.Dave agrees with me and the USA deficit will be 1.2 trillion dollars and tapering will be impossible as nobody on the planet will buy these bonds.

(courtesy Dave from Denver/the GoldenTruth)

MONDAY, MAY 13, 2013

The B.S. Is Flying At Us Everyday Now

Two more Government propaganda agencies released extremely misleading data this morning.

First, the Census Bureau released its estimate for April retail sales.  The headlines flashed in big bright lights that retail sales increased a "seasonally adjusted" .1% over March.  The March number was originally reported at -.4% but was revised lower to -.5% - or down from February.

Now here's the interesting part:  if you go by the not seasonally adjusted estimated number, sales for April actually declined from March by 2.5%.  That's quite a bit different from the fabled headlines everyone will see or hear today.  Here's the data:  LINK  And a negative reading is more consistent with the wholesale sales number released last Thursday by the Commerce Department, which showed that wholesale sales posted their biggest drop in four years:  LINK

You would at least think that if the Government was going to paint a big lie, they could at least get their various statistical departments to cooperate with each other so that the lies are consistent across the data.

An even bigger joke is that Bloomberg News reported today that Wall Street dealers are now forecasting that the U.S. Treasury will reduce the size of upcoming Government Treasury auctions due to "soaring revenue" and based on the CBO's recent estimate that the Government will run only an $845 billion deficit for fiscal 2013.

Now, part of the problem with this idea is that for the first 7 months of FY 2013, the Federal debt load has gone up by $700 billion.  The only reason the debt goes up is because revenues are not covering spending - i.e. a true $700 billion cash spending deficit.  In terms of the timing of cash flows, we know that the Treasury received a big balloon payment in December as wealthy people sold down taxable assets and paid the gains on them ahead of the Jan 1 tax increases.  Moreover, the first few months of the year thru April account for a disproportionate amount of tax revenues for obvious reasons.  So, is tax revenue really "soaring?"  LOL

The bigger part of this CBO joke is the incredibly poor track record that the CBO has in forecasting debt levels and spending levels.  As Zerohedge pointed out back in February, in 2001 the CBO projected that by 2011 the Treasury would have a balance sheet surplus of $2.4 trillion - i.e. no debt.   Instead, the actual number was a debt load of $10.4 trillion.  Just a slight miss there.  And a year ago, the CBO was forecasting that this year's deficit would be $585 billion.  Zerohedge Link

Obviously, going by the monthly run-rate already experienced in 2013 for the first 7 months, the Government is running roughly a $100 billion per month deficit.  Unless the Government can figure out a way to recreate the one-time surge in revenues that occurred in December and maintain income tax revenues at the same run-rate as they were thru April 15, I would expect that the Government, short of using some accounting tricks, will continue to run about $100 billion per month deficit thru the September FY-end, for a total spending deficit of $1.2 trillion.

The point of all this is that the garbage coming of out of DC and NYC on a daily basis keeps getting bigger, more rotten and more foul-smelling.  And I'm sure most of you don't care - I do or I wouldn't have brought this up - but the immigration reform bill going through Congress right now contains language buried in it that mandates the establishment of a database that records and keeps biometric data on every single citizen of the U.S.:  LINK  All I can say to that is that anyone who doesn't think George Orwell's vision was accurate is an idiot.

If they wanted to eliminate illegal immigration, they should just cut back on welfare and social security disability by about 50%, because it would force people who are otherwise capable of working to do the jobs that illegal immigrants are willing to do. 


On the same subject as above as Kaye believes that the disinformation will cause poor souls to liquidate their precious metal holdings:

(courtesy William Kaye/Kingworldnews)

Beware Fed's disinformation on QE, fund manager Kaye tells King World News

3:57p ET Monday, May 13, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Interviewed today by King World News, Pacific Group fund manager William Kaye mocks the good cop/bad cop act of the Federal Reserve in regard to the supposed phasing out of "quantitative easing." Such talk, Kaye argues, is disinformation meant to scare investors away from their only refuge, the monetary metals, even as the bullion banks are running out of metal. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


This is the second report that I have seen to indicate that there is another G 7 meeting scheduled for next week.

Silver Doctors is reporting on this.
Yra Harris reported on this as well.

(courtesy Silver and Bill Holter


economic collapseThe G-7 are meeting this weekend outside of London.  This was unscheduled and can only be considered as an emergency meeting.
I have maintained all along that a “bank holiday” would ultimately occur which sets positions in cement while a revaluation of assets and currencies takes place.
My guess is that the end game is in fact being discussed.  How best to shut the current system down, reboot another one AND retain as much power as possible.  I truly believe that preparations are being discussed here and now “how best” (for them) to close out this current chapter of world finance.  All of this has been discussed and planned years ahead of time, these are not fools. The current discussion is merely about pulling the trigger.
I for one would love to be a fly on the wall to hear the goings on as I am sure the “outsiders” from the rest of the G-20 would.  The G-7 are the traditional “power” nations, they are also the ones doing the most printing and inflating.  Since the beginning of the Greatest Financial Crisis, these nations have bankrupted themselves the most, printed and borrowed the most and basically “lost power” with their actions.  I might add that these nations of the “West” have also been responsible for Gold being shipped “East”…and thus with it “power”.
So what exactly is being discussed?  We will soon find out (or see the results) but I would imagine that anything and everything pertaining to the “end game” will be touched upon.  Bank weakness and insolvency must be at the top of the list, QE’s lack of traction is also surely up there.  Gold inventories (or lack of) must also surely have been discussed and I would certainly think that currency collapse was on the agenda.  “Currency collapse”, replacement of same and “bank holiday” including “bail ins” were probably all discussed and pre planned.
Tell me that I am crazy and that none of these topics were broached, the physical metals markets globally are telling me (and them) that they were and that the end game is near.  The question is this, how much longer can inventories supply the outsized demand that has been created by the false and fraudulent “paper” crash of metals pricing?  “We” do not know the answer to this question, “they” do.  “They” know what is really left and whether or not the bottom of the barrel is already in sight.
To the above I would add that here in the U.S. we also have a dangerous week ahead.  The Obama administration is taking huge body blows over the Bhengazi attack last year.  None of the official stories add up and it turns out that orders came from somewhere to “stand down” while Americans were being killed.  I say that this coming week is “dangerous” because “your” attention apparently needs to altered in a different direction.  The distinct possibility/probability of some sort of false flag event is now off the charts.
I have maintained all along that a “bank holiday” would ultimately occur which sets positions in cement while a revaluation of assets and currencies takes place.  As time has passed, this looks more and more likely to me as nothing has been done to avoid this scenario.  In fact, the West has simply pressed the accelerator harder and opened the monetary spigots further…with almost zero effect on the real economy.  Stock markets are acting like an early warning signal to a hyperinflation.  Gold and Silver have not been allowed to do this which is why physical inventories have been attacked so fiercely.
Since I am not a fly on the wall and can only speculate until “we find out”, my guess is that the end game is in fact being discussed.  How best to shut the current system down, reboot another one AND retain as much power as possible.  Call me cynical, crazy or whatever, I truly believe that preparations are being discussed here and now “how best” (for them) to close out this current chapter of world finance.  By the way, all of this has been discussed and planned years ahead of time, these are not fools.  The current discussion is merely about pulling the trigger.  Regards,  Bill H.

Well that about does it for tonight

I will see you tomorrow night


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