Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Gold refuses to buckle on attempted raid/In silver 14.86 million oz standing on first day/ in gold a huge 4.46 tonnes standing/

Good evening  Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold closed up $3.80 to $1472.20 (comex closing time).  Silver unchanged at $24.18  (comex closing time). 

In the access market at 5 pm gold and silver  rose :

gold: $1476.30
silver: $24.35

At the comex, the open interest in silver fell  by a healthy 1844 contracts to 146,310 contracts as we had some short covering. The silver OI is  holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the gold contract rose by 6525 contracts to 422,733. Today is first day notice in both gold and silver and at first glance we will have 143,500 oz of gold stand in this non active month of May  (4.4 tonnes).

In silver, at first glance we will have 14.86 million oz standing for delivery.
I will provide details for you below.

Today, physical gold continues to leave London with 2.14 tonnes of gold departing the GLD for the shores of China/and or Russia.  

We had good commentaries today from Mark Grant, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, Jim Sinclair, Rosie Murray West of the UK Telegraph, Michael Kreiger on CME President Duffy, Bill Murphy and James Turk on Barrick and Pascua Lama and Glenys Sim of Bloomberg on gold's huge demand. 

Good paper stories are provided by of course, zero hedge and Marc to Market

 We will go over these and other stories but first.........................

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today:

The total gold comex open interest rose by 6,525 contracts today  from 416,206  up to 422,733,  with gold rising by $14.80 on Monday.  The front April OI is now off the board. Today is first day notice for the May Gold contract.  Last night we had a rather large 1288 notices sent down for first day delivery.  The number of OI contracts standing this afternoon is represented by 1435 contracts or 143,500 oz of gold.  So a preliminary reading of the amount that will stand will be 143,500 oz or 4.46 tonnes.  That amount will probably rise as the month progresses. The next active contract month is June and here the OI rose by 2253 contracts to 246,611. June is the second biggest delivery month in gold's calender.  The estimated volume today was fair at 150,640.   The confirmed volume on Monday was also fair at 145,114 contracts.

The total silver comex OI fell  by a hefty 1844  contracts from 148,154 down to 146,310  with silver's $0.42 rise on Monday. No doubt we had some short covering today.  Those contracts  that remain are stoic and ready to take on the bankers at their crooked game. Today is first day notice for the active silver contract month.  Late last night a rather large 1506 contracts were served upon or 7.530 million oz.  At 1:30 this afternoon we learned that 2,972 contracts are standing first for 14.86 million oz. No doubt JPMorgan will be busy handing out fiat to encourage these longs not to take possession of the physical metal.  The next  delivery month for silver is June and here the OI fell by 13 contracts to stand at 486. The next big active contract month is July and here the OI rose by 4504 contracts to rest tonight at 79,509.   The estimated volume today was good, coming in at 38,700 contracts.  The confirmed volume yesterday was very good at 75,641.

Comex gold/May contract month:

April 30.2013

May gold: first day notice

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 189,258.117 (HSBC,Scotia) oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
269.169.971 (Scotia, HSBC)
No of oz served (contracts) today
 1288  (128,800  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
147 (14,700)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1288  (128,800)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

189,258.117  oz  

We had huge activity at the gold vaults.
The dealer had 0 deposits and 0  dealer withdrawals.

We had 2 customer deposits on Friday:

i). Into Scotia:  208,389.431 oz
ii) Into HSBC:  60,780.54 oz

total customer deposit: 269,169.971 oz

We had 2 customer withdrawal:

i) Out of Scotia:  125,025.98 oz
ii) Out of HSBC:  64,232.137

total withdrawal:  189,258.117 oz

We had 2  adjustments 

.  They adjusted another 2,296.526 oz out of the dealer JPMorgan and into the customer account of JPMorgan.  No gold entered the customer from outside with respect to JPMorgan

2.  From the HSBC vault:  5966.510 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and back into the customer account.

Thus the dealer inventory  rests tonight at 2.147 million oz (66.78) tonnes of gold.
The total of all gold declines again at the comex and this time breaking below 8 million oz as it rests at 8.129 million oz or 252.0 tonnes.

The CME reported that we had 1288 notices filed on first day notice for 128,800  oz of gold today. We have a total number of OI standing for gold equal to 1435 contracts. To calculate how many gold ounces will stand for May, I take the OI standing for the May gold contract (1435) and subtract out today's notices (1288) which leaves us with 147 notices left to be served upon

Thus  we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in May:

1288 contracts x 100 oz per contract (served)  +  147 notices or 14700 oz (to be served upon)  =  143,500 oz or 4.46 tonnes of gold.
This is extremely high for a non active month.



April 30.2013:  May silver: 

First day notice for the active silver month:

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventorynil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 649,750.566( Delaware, Scotia)   
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory  647,095.54  (CNT, Brinks)
No of oz served (contracts)1506 contracts ( 7,530,000 oz)  
No of oz to be served (notices)1462  (7,330,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 754  (3,7670,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month3,818,843.5 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month6,159,668.2 oz

Today, we  had good activity  inside the silver vaults.

 we had 0 dealer deposits and 0  dealer withdrawals.

We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Into CNT: 50,891.59 oz
ii) Into Brinks; 596,203.95

Total deposits:  647,095.54  oz

We had 2 customer withdrawals:

1) Out of Delaware:  49,051.566 oz
ii) Out of Scotia;  600,699.000 oz  (another of those perfectly round withdrawals)
total customer withdrawal:  649,750.566 oz

we had 2 dandy  adjustments:

i) Out of HSBC:  135,068.015 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and back into the customer account

ii) get a load of this biggy!!:
 Out of JPMorgan, a monstrous 8,668,651.908 oz was adjusted out of the customer and back into the dealer account and probably ready to serve upon some of our longs.

Registered silver  at :  45.945 million oz
total of all silver:  166.05 million oz.

The CME reported that we had a rather large 1506 notices filed for first day notice equal to 7,530,000 oz of silver  for the  active contract month of May. The total number of OI that stands tonight for silver equals 2972 and that is our first good shot at what will stand.

Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this  active delivery month of April is as follows:

1506 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 7,530,000 +  1462 contracts x 5000 oz =  7,330,000 oz ( to be served)  =  14,860,000


The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first:

April 30.2013:



Value US$50.915  billion



Value US$50.963  billion

april 26.13:



Value US$51.217  billion

april 25.2013:



Value US$50.841   billion

april 24.2013:



Value US$50.177   billion

April 23.2013:



Value US$49.648 billion

April 22.2013:



Value US$50.575  billion.

april 19.2013:



Value US$50.731  billion.

April 18.2013:



Value US$50.752   billion

april 17.2013:



Value US$50.770  billion.

Today, we lost 2.14 tonnes of gold
The registered  vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold will depart for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders.  As you can see, the bleeding of physical gold from this locale continues unabated.

As a reminder the total comex gold had inventories of around 11 million oz in 2011. Today it held just above 8 million oz. (8.149 million oz)


And now for silver:

april 30.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust334,607,098.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

april 29.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust334,607,098.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust334,124,167.000
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


April 25.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust331,757,790.600
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


april 24.2013:

Inception Date4/21/2006
Ounces of Silver in Trust331,757,790.600
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


April 23.2013:

Ounces of Silver in Trust336,007,785.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


april 19.2013:

Ounces of Silver in Trust336,007,785.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


april 18.2013

Ounces of Silver in Trust336,007,785.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


april 17.2013

Ounces of Silver in Trust336,007,785.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


April 16.2013:

Ounces of Silver in Trust336,007,785.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


april 15.2013

Ounces of Silver in Trust337,505,197.400
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


 april 12.2013:

Ounces of Silver in Trust337,505,197.400
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


 april 11.2013:

Ounces of Silver in Trust337,505,197.400
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust
One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.


Today we neither gained nor lost any oz silver at the SLV.


And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada. 

(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded  at negative 1.1% percent to NAV in usa funds and a negative 1.1%  to NAV for Cdn funds. ( April  30.2013)   

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV fell to +0.61% NAV  April 30/2013
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  fell to+ .06% positive to NAV April 30/ 2013.


And now for the major physical stories we faced today:  

Your gold trading commentary from  Europe early Tuesday morning:

demand extremely high

Perth Mint Demand Highest Since Lehman Brothers - Refines Coins, Bars At Weekend

-- Posted Tuesday, 30 April 2013 | Share this article | Comment - New!

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,472.75, EUR 1,126.13 and GBP 950.04 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,472.50, EUR 1,125.51 and GBP 947.80 per ounce.

Gold climbed $13.10 or 0.9% yesterday to $1,470.40/oz and silver reached $24.47 and finished +1.8%.

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

Gold is slightly lower today after yesterday's consolidation on last week's gains.
Premiums continue to rise on physical product across the world to reflect a significant increase in demand and very tight supplies. Premiums on gold and silver coins and bars are increasing across the world - from London to Frankfurt to Zurich to Turkey to Dubai to Mumbai to Singapore to Hong Kong to Tokyo and across the U.S.
Physical gold stocks held at CME Group's Comex warehouses in New York have dropped to a near-five year low in a further sign that gold's recent weakness has unleashed a nascent mini gold rush of demand as people all over the world scramble to own bars and coins.
Premiums to secure supplies in India jumped to five times the level before the slump.
Physical bullion coins and bars for immediate delivery are not available in much of the world including in the Middle East and Singapore.
Consumers in Singapore and Hong Kong have seen premiums on bars rise sharply and Standard Merchant Bank (Asia) Ltd. said that “physical metal is still not available.”

Gold in USD, 3 Day – (Bloomberg)

Australia’s Perth Mint, the largest refinery in Australia and one of the largest in the world, said that demand has jumped to the highest level since the Lehman crisis in 2008.
Demand has been robust due to currency devaluation concerns and then the 15% price fall led to a massive surge in demand as store of wealth buyers leapt at the chance to acquire physical bullion at much cheaper prices.
This led to the Perth Mint which refines nearly all of the nation’s bullion, having to stay open over the weekend to meet orders.
There’s been strong interest, including from the U.S., with buyers confident that the metal will rebound from the decline, Ron Currie, sales and marketing director, told Bloomberg in a phone interview from Perth.

Gold in Euros, 3 Day – (Bloomberg)

“We haven’t seen levels like this since the 2008 global financial crisis,” Currie said yesterday. “Compared to March sales, April sales have doubled or tripled,” he said.
“We worked all weekend to keep the factory running to make more stock and that was only to fill orders,” Currie said from the facility founded in 1899. “We’re being inundated with people buying products.”
As the Perth Mint's Approved Dealer in the EU, GoldCore are seeing a similar increase in demand - particularly for Perth Mint gold bars and allocated bullion accounts.

Gold in British Pounds, 3 Day – (Bloomberg)

Bullion buyers who had been planning to buy coins and bars in the coming months have brought forward their purchases due to the much cheaper prices and concerns about rising premiums and difficulty in securing supply.
“We’re seeing people are coming into the market because the price has come down, they think they can afford it now and expect that it will go up again,” Currie said. “The U.S. has got the money to purchase metal and is doing so as a hedge,” he said, referring to individual investors. “It’s extremely busy for us in the U.S.”
Coin sales by the U.S. Mint are set for the highest month since December 2009, while premiums to secure supplies in India rose to five times the level before the slump.
While prices have gained 11 percent from a two-year low on April 16, they are still heading for the biggest monthly loss since December 2011.
Increased physical purchases may help to offset declining holdings in ETPs, which are on course for a record contraction in tonnage terms this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Holdings have contracted 168 tons in April as weak more speculative hands were shook out of the market on the price decline.
Billionaire John Paulson, the biggest investor in the largest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, reiterated his bullish view on prices.
The U.S. Mint said on April 23 it suspended sales of coins weighing a 10th of an ounce after demand more than doubled from a year earlier. The mint has sold 209,500 ounces of gold coins so far in April from 62,000 in March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.K. Mint said purchases tripled in April.
Gold is now testing resistance at the 50% retracement level and further price weakness is possible. However, the fundamentals remain as sound as ever and securing ownership of gold and silver bullion coins and bars at these prices and at these still relatively low premiums remains very prudent.

Perth Mint Works at Weekend to Meet Highest Demand Since ‘08 - Bloomberg
Gold slips as ETF holdings hit lowest since Sept 2009 - Reuters
Gold prices aim for upbeat end to rough month - MarketWatch

Gold plunge was not a natural market event but an intervention – Lars Schall
We Wish – 24hGOLD
Wall Street Is A Rentier Rip-Off: Index Funds Beat 99.6% Of Managers Over Ten Years – Zero Hedge
Kinross probably can't make big Mauritania mine work even at $1,500 gold – Financial Post


Jim Sinclair on the confiscation of deposits in Cyprus:

Jim Sinclair – Media Blackout, Panic & A Major Short Squeeze

Posted  by  & filed under King World News.
Dear CIGAs,
Today legendary trader Jim Sinclair told King World News that despite the volatility in gold and silver, not only will any setbacks will be short-lived, but we are now looking at the very real possibility of a major short squeeze in the metals.  Sinclair also spoke about what has just taken place in Cyprus, the Western media blackout of those events, and what it means for investors going forward.  Below is what Sinclair, who was once called on by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to assist during a Wall Street crisis, had to say in this remarkable interview.
Eric King:  “Jim, we will get to gold in just a minute, but first, what are you focused on in the aftermath of this latest development in Cyprus?”
Sinclair:  “There has been a total blackout in the Western mainstream media regarding what just took place in Cyprus.  Even where there was even scant reporting about Cyprus, they only reported approximately 1/3 of the amount of the assets that have effectively been stolen.
The takeaway I have, and the shock I have, is that the news is now so selective in the so-called free Western hemisphere….


Rose Murray West of the UK Telegraph on gold demand:

Gold buyers forced to go on waiting list

Gold buyers are having to wait up to six weeks for their bars and coins after a price dip led to increased interest.

Investment company Physical Gold said there were waiting lists of three weeks for some coins, and four to six weeks for gold bars. "Previously all would have been available within a few days," the company said.
The company said that it had seen a 50pc increase in enquiries about purchasing gold and a 35pc increase in sales, with people buying tax-free gold coins. "We are now starting to experience physical gold shortages," said Daniel Fisher, CEO of Physical Gold.
"In particular there are waiting times on some gold bars and a real difficulty in obtaining mixed year Sovereigns. "However, many clients are willing to 'do a deal' and wait for delivery as they want to secure the current price as they feel it will be higher in the near future."
Gold prices have fallen significantly recently, which may have created some demand. Mr Fisher said his clients had been "waiting in the wings" for the current price adjustment. "Clients who have been ready to pounce have now bought as they realise they are getting good value and the environment for gold is still strong. There are still few decent alternatives to gold as a safe haven asset."
Adrian Ash, from gold trading market Bullion vault, said that households had been investing heavily in gold, but that money market managers and hedge funds continued to drive the price down.


He said what!!!!...the CME President, Duffy!!!!!
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Courtesy of CIGA David Madisonstyle.com
If paper gold makes another attempt to depreciate the gold price, physical buying is going to step up in price to meet it.
CME President on Gold: “They Don’t Want Certificates, They Want the Real Product” By Michael Krieger
What’s interesting about gold, when we had that big break two weeks ago we saw all the gold stocks trade down significantly, we saw all the gold products trade down significantly, but one thing that did not trade down, was gold coins, tangible real  gold.  That’s going to show you, people don’t want certificates, they don’t want anything else.  They want the real product.
- Terrence Duffy, President and Executive Chairman of CME Group Inc,. on Bloomberg TV yesterday (April 29, 2013)
I’m actually still in a state of shock that the head of the CME Group would make such an observation and in such blunt terms.  I mean the guy admits that volume on his exchanges suck, yet basically claims paper gold (on of their marquee products) is becoming irrelevant.  In my mind there are two likely explanations for this.  1) This is how he has started to feel personally and he is loading up on physical gold rather than his company’s paper products and would like some cover if that is ever unearthed. 2) This is what people close to the gold market are telling him and he’d rather make it clear he understands that paper is paper and gold is gold and that there is a big difference.  So "caveat emptor" if you are hanging around the COMEX.
His comments on gold come in at the 0:40 mark.  Simply stunning.


Bill Murphy discussing the James turk commentary that I sent to you yesterday on Barrick.  He should emphasis that Barrick must replace the silver sold from the Pascua Lama project to Silver Wheaton:

"On that note, James Turk did an interview with King World News yesterday which really caught my attention for a number of reasons. One of them had to do with Barrick’s Pascua- Lama operation in Chile…
The short position in both gold and silver is now so huge, it won't take much to push the shorts into a buying panic. I have been looking for possible triggers that could panic the shorts, and we got a hint last week of one possible event which may do this. Because of various problems, there have been news reports that Barrick is considering what to do with its huge Pascua-Lama deposit after a Chilean court ordered it to stop development work.
The project is already well behind schedule, with big cost overruns from its initial plan, but here's the important point: The market has been expecting that when production begins, the mine would produce 800,000 ounces of gold and 35 million ounces of silver annually. Those ounces will of course never materialize if development work remains suspended.
But also consider that according to its 31 March 2013 financial report, Barrick has hedged 65 million ounces of silver, which is 8% of the world's annual silver production. What is the bullion bank, who sold that hedge to Barrick, going to do if those 65 million ounces don't get mined and delivered to it?
What is Barrick going to do if the bullion bank forces it to deliver physical silver to close the hedge? What are the shorts in silver going to do when they realize that there is a potential time bomb here that could substantially reduce the near-term forecast of silver supply?
In other words, it is pure insanity to be short silver here, and for that matter, gold as well. Round two of the buying panic may be just around the corner when the paper shorts rush to the exits. They will learn the age-old and time-proven adage about the precious metals, namely, that it is easy to sell gold and silver in large quantities, but very, very difficult to buy in size."



inflation costs are ripping apart mining companies.. they need a higher gold price to stay alive
Just take a look at two examples:  first off, Newmont Mining

Newmont Mining Q1 profit down 36% as gold production drops

Newmont Mining Corp. saw its first-quarter profit decline 36 percent in the face of a 11 percent drop in gold production, missing Wall Street earnings and revenue estimates…

Second; it looks like Kinross will not be able to pull off going into production with its big mine in Mauritania  (the Tasiast mine)

Kinross Gold sees US$2.7 Billion Initial Capital Cost for Tasiast Mine
By Peter Koven
National Post / Financial Post, Toronto
Monday, April 29, 2013

TORONTO -- After two and a half years of work at its troubled Tasiast project, Kinross Gold Corp. still has a lot to prove.
On Monday Kinross released a long-awaited pre-feasibility study on the proposed expansion of Mauritania-based Tasiast. The company called the results "encouraging" and elected to move ahead with a full feasibility study. But analysts and investors were far from thrilled.
Put simply, the study results did not confirm that the project would generate a strong return on investment. Instead, they confirmed a lot of work still needs to be done.
The initial cost to get Tasiast up and running would be US$2.7 billion, according to the study. While the proposed mine would produce roughly 830,000 ounces of gold a year at low costs, the estimated net present value is only US$1.1-billion at a gold price of US$1,500 an ounce, while the internal rate of return (IRR) is a meagre 11%.
That is a low IRR for such a large and high-risk project, especially given that the assumed gold price is higher than the current one. At lower gold prices, analysts estimated that the numbers get significantly weaker.
"A US$2.7 billion investment to generate US$1.1 billion in West Africa is unattractive," Stifel Nicolaus analyst George Topping wrote in a note. He believes that pressing on with a "weak" project in a rough market is not a wise move and is "detrimental to market confidence in the company.
On a conference call, chief executive Paul Rollinson stated repeatedly that this is only a pre-feasibility study and there are opportunities to improve the economics of the project. One possibility is to use natural gas instead of heavy oil as an energy source, as Mauritania has vast quantities of offshore gas that have not been tapped. "At some point, this gas will come to shore," he said.
But he also maintained a cautious outlook on Tasiast, stating that Toronto-based Kinross would not do anything to threaten its balance sheet.
"The priority for us is balance sheet strength," he promised.
Kinross will not make a construction decision on the Tasiast expansion until the feasibility study is finished next year, so there is plenty of time to find ways to improve returns.
Kinross picked up Tasiast in 2010 when it acquired Red Back Mining Inc. for a whopping US$7.1 billion. Remarkably, that is higher than Kinross' current market value. Tasiast was supposed to become one of the company's crown jewels but instead became a headache as capital costs soared higher and it was mostly written down. The problems at Tasiast were a key factor behind the firing of former CEO Tye Burt last year.
Kinross initially hoped to process 60,000 tonnes of ore per day at Tasiast but downsized those plans because of cost pressures. The pre-feasibility study concluded that the best option is to process 38,000 tonnes per day.
Greg Barnes, an analyst at TD Securities, wrote that the project economics at Tasiast should improve after US$600 million is spent to upgrade infrastructure this year. However, he noted that many questions remain and investors will remain cautious until they see firmer numbers. The stock has plummeted 43% this year.
"As more money is invested into the project as a sunk cost, the project will become increasingly attractive," Mr. Topping wrote. "However, this defeats the purpose of economic studies, which is obviously to avoid the sunk cost on weak projects in the first place."


Glenys Sim of Bloomberg discusses the huge gold rush. Premiums to the actual metal are rising as physical disappears!!

(courtesy Sim/Bloomberg)

Gold Rush From Dubai to Turkey Saps Supply as Premiums Jump

By Glenys Sim - Apr 30, 2013 8:26 AM ET
Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg

Surging demand for gold from Dubai to Istanbul has pushed physical premiums in the region to levels not seen in years as the biggest price slump in three decades lures consumers, according to MKS (Switzerland) SA.
Premiums paid by wholesalers and bulk buyers in Dubai to secure a 1 kilogram bar of bullion are being quoted between $6 an ounce and $9 an ounce over the London cash price, said Frederic Panizzutti, global head of marketing and sales at the Swiss-based bullion refiner. That compares with about 50 cents before the rout, Panizzutti, also chief executive officer of MKS Precious Metals DMCC, said in an interview from Dubai.Gold fell to the lowest in more than two years this month on speculation that the global economy is recovering, unleashing a purchasing frenzy among coin and jewelry buyers from China to the U.S. Consumer demand for jewelry, bars and coins in Turkey and the Middle East represented about 9.4 percent of the global total last year, according to the World Gold Council. Bars have been cleared from display in the souks, according to Gerry Schubert, head of precious metals at Emirates NBD PJSC.
"Physical demand has been tremendous in a way I haven’t seen for a number of years," said Jeffrey Rhodes, global head of precious metals at INTL FCStone Inc., who’s worked in the industry for more than three decades. "The price collapse prompted a physical gold rush and the evidence of the extent of that is the prolonged period of high premiums that we’ve seen. Reports from the gold souks are that business is good," Rhodes said from Dubai.
Bear Market
Prices plunged 14 percent in the two sessions to April 15, the most since 1983, and reached a low of $1,321.95 an ounce on April 16. Since then, spot bullion has rebounded 11 percent to $1,469.54 today as the surge in physical demand offset record outflows from exchange-traded products. Gold is still lower in April, heading for the worst monthly loss since December 2011 amid a bear market.
In Turkey, the fourth-biggest gold consumer last year, bullion on the Istanbul Gold Exchange traded at premiums of as much as $25 an ounce over the London spot price, something that hasn’t happened in "a very long time, we’re talking years," said MKS’s Panizzutti."In the gold souk, you see some coins left over, but the investment bars are all gone from the windows," said Schubert at Dubai-based Emirates NBD, the United Arab Emirates’ second- biggest bank by assets. Domestic retail prices moved to a premium of about $5 an ounce from a small discount before the rout, said Schubert, who has traded the metal since 1979.
Largest Center
Dubai is the largest gold-trading center in the Middle East, according to the Dubai Gold & Jewellery Group, an industry body that includes manufacturers and retailers. Trade was worth about $56 billion in 2011, up from $6 billion in 2003, according to data on the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre website.
Gold jumped 4.2 percent last week, the most in 15 months, as coin demand from mints in the U.S. and Australia to the U.K. soared. The volume for the benchmark contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange surged to a record last week, while premiums to secure supplies in India jumped to five times the level before the slump. China and India are the world’s largest buyers.
Consumers in Singapore and Hong Kong are paying premiums of about $3 an ounce, compared with about $2 just after the rout, according to Ng Cheng Thye, head of precious metals at Standard Merchant Bank (Asia) Ltd.
‘More Patient’
"Physical metal is still not available," Ng said by phone from Singapore. "The Chinese are on holiday these few days and at this level, the market might slow down a bit on the demand side. People are a little bit more patient now compared with two weeks ago, where everybody was rushing for physical metal."Chow Sang Sang Holdings International Ltd. said that jewelry sales at its 44 shops in Hong Kongmore than doubled in the two weeks ended April 27 from a year ago. In China, financial markets are closed through May 1.
"It’s not just a Middle East story, it’s all across the globe," said Panizzutti. "The fact that premiums are so high, it means that no one is making enough. We are producing 24 hours a day."To contact the reporter for this story: Glenys Sim at gsim4@bloomberg.net


And now your more important paper stories which will influence the price of gold and silver:

Your early morning sentiment on trading from Europe/Asia courtesy of zero hedge

Major points:

1. Japanese consumer spending rises 5.2 % on expectations of 1.6%

2. However figures do not match the drop in Japanese retail sales of -8% on expectations of -1.4%.

3. Japanese industrial production rises by .2% on expectations of .4% increase.

4.  The rise in the yen and the curtailing of the Nikkei will have a profound effect on Japanese citizens wealth effect

5.  European March retail sales in line with expectations of -.3% drop

6.  Spanish GDP contracts by .5% in line with expectations

7. Spanish current account  (trade plus service) fell again from -2.6 billion euros to -3.9 billion euros.

8. Eurozone CPI  mild at 1.2% on expectations of 1.6%

9.  The big story is Eurozone unemployment rising to 12.1% from last month's 12.0% 

10. Highlights from Bloomberg/Soc Generale, and Jim Reid of Deutsche bank

(courtesy zero hedge)

Another Month Of Record European Unemployment And Dropping Inflation Sets Up An ECB Rate Cut

Tyler Durden's picture

The weakness in economic data (not to be confused with the centrally-planned anachronism known as the "markets") started overnight when despite a surge in Japanese consumer spending(up 5.2% on expectations of 1.6%, the most in nine years) by those with access to the stock market and mostly of the "richer" variety, did not quite jive with a miss in retail sales, which actually missed estimates of dropping "only" -0.8%, instead declining -1.4%. As the FT reported what we said five months ago, "Four-fifths of Japanese households have never held any securities, and 88 per cent have never invested in a mutual fund, according to a survey last year by the Japan Securities Dealers Association." In other words any transient strength will be on the back of the Japanese "1%" - those where the "wealth effect" has had an impact and whose stock gains have offset the impact of non-core inflation. In other words, once the Yen's impact on the Nikkei225 tapers off (which means the USDJPY stops soaring), that will be it for even the transitory effects of Abenomics. Confirming this was Japanese Industrial production which also missed, rising by only 0.2%, on expectations of a 0.4% increase.
Yet while the Japanese data was hardly a surprise, the biggest news of the night was European inflation data, which we got shortly after the German March retail sales data (in line with expectations of a -0.3% drop, following the February number which too was revised from +0.4% to -0.3% proving that attempts to stave off recession in Germany have failed) and following Spanish GDP which also came in line with expectations contracting at a -0.5% rate and current account which deteriorated from -€2.6 billion to -€3.9 billion. The April Eurozone CPI reading at 1.2% on expectations of a 1.6% number, and down from 1.7%, which has now pretty much convinced all the analysts that a 25 bps cut in the ECB refi rate, if not deposit, is now merely a formality and will be announced following a unanimous decision. Some, such as Credit Agricole, are even asking for "bolder" action than just the haircut. So will Europe force banks to pledge more assets in exchange for unnecessary money a la LTRO? Or will there be another indirect injection of cash? We will wait and see. In the meantime the EURUSD is where we left it off,
Finally, Eurozone unemployment for March hit yet another record high of 12.1%, up from 12.0%. This was in line with expectations and is hardly news for anyone.
Looking at the US session, we get quarterly employment costs, house prices, consumer confidence and the Chicago PMI. Another busy day.
The bulletin highlights from overnight via Bloomberg:
  • Euro-area unemployment increased to record 12.1% in March, with youth unemployment at 24%; German unemployment rose for a second month in March, with the number of jobless climbing 4k to 2.94m
  • Inflation in the euro area slowed to 1.2% in April, more than forecast, from 1.7% in March
  • Weak inflation data strengthens case for greater ECB action than current forecast of 25bps, according to Credit Agricole
  • Hedge funds including Paulson & Co. are pushing Congress to abandon plans to liquidate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as investors buy up preferred stock that has long been considered worthless, according to people with knowledge of the discussions
  • Japan’s jobless rate was 4.1% in March vs. est 4.2% and 4.3% in Feb.
  • Fast Retailing Co., Asia’s biggest apparel retailer, was responsible for almost 1/6th of Nikkei’s 49% advance in the last two years, according to  data compiled by Bloomberg
  • Global sovereign yields mostly lower, led by France, U.K. and Belgium. EU sovereign spreads to Germany tighten
  • Nikkei -0.2%; China closed for holiday. European equity markets decline, U.S. index futures mixed. WTI Crude little changed; gold, copper decline
SocGen recaps the key items in the macro outlook for today:
Ultra-benign inflation data from the US and Germany were published yesterday - both their key rates fell to 1.1% yoy in March - and even though their 10y benchmark yields are 40bp apart, this served a timely reminder that inflation should be the least of the worries of the two central bank meetings that are about to get underway. For the ECB in particular, where the balance sheet and excess liquidity have declined, the threat of fresh stimulus unmooring inflation expectations simply does not stack up. What's happened in Germany since last November is that with CPI having dropped from 2% to 1.1% and the ECB refi rate having stayed at 0.75%, real interest rates have tightened by 90bp. Over the same period, the EUR effective exchange rate has appreciated by 4%. A tightening in policy conditions which, with global demand looking more tepid, has caused momentum to slow. It is the trends since the March forecast updates and not since November that will be particularly relevant to the governing council, but even then the inflation backdrop has proved quite a bit more benign than probably pencilled in. With leading indicators flashing amber over the country's growth prospects, the case for the central bank to hold fire looks flimsy indeed. Keep an eye on the country's latest labour market stats this morning.
Meanwhile in G10 currencies, it is the NZD and NOK which are charging ahead carrying on where they left on Friday, whilst EUR and GBP are consolidating ahead of the FOMC tomorrow. The NOK has recovered partly from a bad spell vs the EUR after the pre-hedging of bond redemption flows on May 15 (6.5% 2013 benchmark, NOK66.5bn worth). Roughly 60% is reportedly in foreign hands. Briefly trading back below 7.60 yesterday, speculation of ECB easing on Thursday may keep the pair on the back foot unless this morning's Norwegian retail sales data disappoint.
In the US today we get quarterly employment costs, house prices, consumer confidence and the Chicago PMI. Rising house prices and an upward revision to the Michigan consumer survey paint good odds of a bounce back in the consumer confidence report, though it's the labour component that will garner most interest ahead of Friday's payrolls report.
* * *
Confirming that "low inflation" has given the central banks a green light to do even more, comes from the overnight summary of DB's Jim Reid who also touches on the remaining key events.
Expectations of a prolonged period of (or more) central bank liquidity was lifted higher by the combination of lower inflation and softer data yesterday. In Europe, German inflation rose less than expected in April (+1.2% vs +1.4%) which was met by a near handful of disappointing sentiment surveys. On the other side of the pond, the latest core PCE deflator is showing renewed downward momentum although this is not evident in the core CPI series. Our economists noted that the gap between the two now at nearly 80bps (widest since May 2002) but since core PCE deflator is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric the latest readings give the FOMC more ammunition to stick with its current policy. US activity data also remains soft. The Dallas Fed manufacturing report headline index fell by 22.8pts to -15.6, making it the worst reading since July 2012. Details were also weak with new orders down to its lowest read since November 2011. All eyes will be on the Chicago PMI today ahead of the ISM manufacturing tomorrow. US housing continues to offer some hope though with the latest pending home sales in March surprising to the upside (+1.5% mom v +1.0% expected).
So all in all yesterday was a good day for risk assets with equities on both sides of the Atlantic rallying higher. The S&P 500 added +0.72%% to close at another fresh high but volumes were lighter than usual. Gains were led by broad based gains across all sectors with IT (+1.64%) and Materials (+1.51%) enjoying the best of the day’s gains. Credit markets followed with US HY index closing ½ point higher and IG spreads nearly 2bp tighter on the day. In Europe, Crossover and Main were 21bps and 5bps tighter, respectively. It was a solid day for commodities with the CRB index, WTI, Gold and Silver up +1.4%, +1.6%, +1.0% and +2.3%, on the day.
It was somewhat telling to see the muted reaction in core rates despite a broad based rally in various risk assets. The 10-year US Treasury yield pretty much finished the day virtually unchanged at 1.67%. Renewed interest in fixed income assets is broadly consistent with recent fund flow trends. In their latest fund flow report, our equity strategists highlighted a reversal in recent trends with inflows into bond funds outgained equity funds. All major categories of debt funds saw good inflows mainly led by US bond funds and International bond funds.
Company earnings wise it was a quiet start to the week. We saw less than a dozen S&P 500 firms report and the number of beats and misses for both EPS and sales were broadly balanced in halves. In Europe we saw 10 corporate results yesterday and the beat:miss ratios were 70%:30% for sales but 45%:55% for EPS. We except reporting activity to pick up again today with 38 S&P 500 and 20 Stoxx600 firms scheduled for today.
Asian equities are taken higher by the positive US sentiment overnight. Chinese markets remained closed while the Hang Seng and KOSPI are +0.8% and +1.2% respectively. Credit spreads are edging tighter led by a strong European and US session yesterday. The Asia iTraxx index is 3bp tighter overnight. New issues remain the main focus for Asian investors with YTD volumes in EM Asia already running at 20% more than the same period last year.
Back to Europe, Enrico Letta will make his first official visit to Berlin today as Italy’s Prime Minister. PM Letta will meet with Mrs Merkel today and a joint press conference is expected at 6pm Berlin time. This is then followed by a dinner meeting so we’ll see if we get any interesting headlines this evening. PM Letta yesterday said that Italy will find strategies to boost growth without compromising the necessary process of restructuring public finances. The new government is seeking to delay a scheduled increase in VAT and suspend the collection of the controversial property tax. PM Letta is also proposed lowering payroll taxes to boost employment.
In terms of today we have a rather eventful data calendar in Europe. Spanish GDP, Eurozone inflation and unemployment stats for the Eurozone and Germany are the key ones of note. We also have retail sales data from Germany and France. In the US, the FOMC will start its two-day policy meeting today while data wise Chicago PMI and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence will be the highlights. All of these ahead of a Labour Day break for main markets (eg. Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany) tomorrow.


This chart needs no explanation!!

Europe's Scariest Chart Leaves 1 in 4 Young People Unemployed

Tyler Durden's picture

While near record low sovereign bond spreads and near record high equity prices have been taken as vindication by the European elites that all is well and 'we just need a little less fauxsterity' to be done with this crisis; the data, as it so often does, says the exact opposite. European unemployment just broke above 12% for the first time ever and European youth unemployment remains miserably above 24%. And while 1-in-4 under-25s unemployed is a bad enough statistic in terms of likely emergence of social unrest, the individual countries are in general deteriorating once again at a faster rate. French youth unemployment has risen for 13 months in a row to a record 26.5%; Spain (at 57.2% of under-25s unemployed) is catching up fast to Greece's stunning 59.1%; but perhaps the most concerning for the broader economies is the fact that Italy's youth unemployment has now topped that of Portugal at 38.4%. The only nation to see a drop in its youth unemployment was Ireland - which fell back modestly to January levels. Not a rosy picture, but then again, it doesn't matter...

and even worse for the youth...

but does it matter?

Charts: Bloomberg


Cyprus set to vote this morning;

(courtesy zero hedge)

Cyprus Parliament To Vote On Bailout This Afternoon

Tyler Durden's picture

It appears the Eurozone Stockholm Syndrome of absolutely (mutual, but ignore that) Assured Destruction has once again bloomed in tiny Cyprus, where capital controls have now had their one month birthday despite promises for a "very short duration" by the IMF's Lagarde, yet where people - all of whom far poorer and with nothing but a catastrophic depression to look forward to - just don't want to leave the Euro and the Belgian neofeudal kingdom. Because today, Cyprus actually has the power to say no to Europe when its parliament decides whether to back the EU bail-in out imposed on its by its EU "partners." However, as Reuters reports, it most likely will not "with approval likely from a thin majority against mounting calls for the island to exit the euro." Which means that Iceland's miraculous growth case study aside, Cyprus will only have itself and its politicians to blame next year when everyone's standard of living is reduced by 20%, then 20% the year after and so on. All in the name of making sure Deutsche Bank's spring clip loaded €55.6 trillion in notional derivatives never snaps shut.
From Reuters:
Lawmakers were due to meet in an extraordinary session to ratify the terms of the aid, which is conditional on Cyprus winding down its second-largest bank and imposing heavy losses on uninsured depositors in another. Voting was expected on Tuesday afternoon.

No single party has a majority in the 56-member parliament, and the government is counting on support from members of its three-party centre-right coalition which has 30 seats in total. It needs 29 votes for the bill to pass.

Shut out of financial markets for two years, Cyprus will fall into chaotic default if lawmakers vote down the bill, government officials have warned.

"We have had enough of delusions. We don't have another choice. Whoever has one should tell us what it is," Cypriot government spokesman Christos Stylianides told state radio.
You don't? The choice seems pretty clear. Then again, Mr. Stylianides will likely not remain in power if Plan B were voted through, and yes, it would mean immediate pain, but at least some hope of future growth as the Cypriot pounds returns and makes the island nation's economy competitive again. Instead, it will have to suffer 40%+ unemployment for years as it seeks to rebalance internally to be competitive with Germany. At least someone gets it. Ironically, it's the communists:
Communist AKEL, in government until it lost presidential elections in February, said it planned to vote against the bill. It has 19 seats in parliament. The socialist Edek party, with 5 seats, also said it would reject it.

AKEL, which had made the initial application for financial aid in June 2012, said onerous terms offered by Cyprus's EU partners were compelling enough for the island to seek alternative sources of funding.

"Cyprus's only option is a solution outside the loan agreement and the Memorandum of Understanding. Seeking such a solution is possibly tantamount to a decision to exit the euro," it said in a statement.
Naturally, since Germany and DB senior management have allowed it to come to a vote, the proability of an adverse outcome is zero. But at least the theatrics for the population will be enjoyable as now, instead of Europe, the people have their own politicians to thank for betraying them when the full cost of the "bailout" becomes apparent in a few months.
It also means that having had the choice to exit and not taking it, Cyprus will be on its own and will get no sympathy from anyone.


And the poor Cypriots have no idea what is going to happen to them:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Cypriot Parliament Approves Bailout

Tyler Durden's picture

As was announced earlier today, the Cypriot parliament was set to vote on the country's deposit confiscatory bail in, a vote that was largely expected to pass. Moments ago it did.
And with that, the resulting depression that is about to be unleashed in Cyprus is nobody else's fault but of the country itself, its politicians and ultimately, its people. So dear Cyprus, you may have a 20% GDP drop every year for the foreseeable future and triple digit unemployment, but at least you will have the EUR and your Stockholm Serf Syndrome.


A great commentary from Marc to Market on what to expect in the next two months with the new Letta government in Italy;

(courtesy Marc to Market)

Letta's Italy?

Marc To Market's picture

The first left-right coalition in Italy since 1946 has survived its first confidence motion in both chambers. As difficult as it may have been to break the political logjam, the hard work lies ahead for Prime Minister Letta. 
A new government often has a honeymoon period.  There are two tells that Letta's honeymoon will be short-lived.  First, initial polls show support for him is soft near 40%.  In contrast, when Monti took office his public support rating was a lofty 70%--now that was a honeymoon.  Second, Letta want a smaller cabinet, but was forced to accept 21 ministers rather than 12.  Neither the center-left nor the center-right seemed willing to accept anything that would dilute its numbers.   
This plays on concerns that although the cabinet lacks the heavy hitters and king makers in Italian politics, they still are pulling the strings from the sidelines.  The relative youthfulness of the cabinet (average age 53 years, a decade younger on average than Monti's cabinet) and the record representation by women, does not necessarily mean the old political elite have been pushed out as Renzi suggested. 
Letta identified three issues that will be the initial priority of his government: halting the June payment of the unpopular IMU tax on primary residence, delay the implementation of the VAT hike planned for mid-year (22% from 21%) and end the government financing of political campaigns.
Getting rid of the IMU was one Berlusconi's campaign promises, but Letta stopped short of fulfilling the promise.  It appears that he has halted the June payment, but has not abolished the tax nor has he endorsed the refunding the sums previously paid.   The tax may have greater symbolic value of the austerity than substance as according to a Wall Street Journal report, half of Italian households pay less than 150 euros in the IMU tax. 
There were a couple of other ways that Letta quickly has made it clear that despite his uncle being one of Belusconi's key advisor, he would not capitulate to all of the center-rights demands.  Berlusconi wanted his ally Alfano to be the deputy prime minister and have the portfolio of the Justice Ministry.  Letta granted the former but denied the latter and instead gave Alfano the interior ministry. 
Berlusconi has opposed Saccomanni's advancement.  Draghi had wanted Saccomanni to replace him at the helm of the Bank of Italy, but Berlucsconi blocked this and instead the position was given to Visco, who, in unorthodox fashion leapfrogged ahead of Saccomanni in the peaking order of a hierarchy that is said to rival the Catholic Church.  Again Berlusconi tried to block Saccomanni's appointment in the new government, but Letta gave him the critical finance ministry.
In some ways, with a younger cabinet, which includes some specialists with weak party affiliation, and the move away from Monti's austerity, Letta also appears to be stealing some of Grillo's thunder.   Yet Letta realizes that the government's stakeholders are not just the domestic forces.  Shortly after he survived the vote of confidence in the Senate today, Letta went to Berlin.  Later this week he will visit Paris and Brussels. 
Letta will not have to push very hard to get some concessions from the EU, where the EC President recently acknowledged that austerity has gone as far as it can.   Italy has reduced its government debt for three consecutive years.  It is one of the few countries in the euro area to run a primary budget surplus (budget position excluding debt servicing costs).  It could be as high as 2.5% of GDP.   The economy is in poor shape to say the least.  In fact, the severity of the economic contraction means that the Italian economy is smaller than it was a decade ago. 
The roughly 6 bln euros of revenue lost between the property tax and the VAT hike are relatively minor for the 1.2 trillion euro economy.   We would not push this point too far given the large stock of Italian debt and average maturity of around, but the decline in Italian yields this month (83 bp on the 2-year note to a record low) and 88 bp on the 10-year bond to 2 1/2 year lows), if sustained will help lower the government's borrowing costs and debt servicing costs).
Electoral reform may be the most significant political issue for the Letta government.  Ironically, delivering this could jeopardize the longevity of Letta's government.  Berlusoni's center-right is running ahead in the polls and an early election would seem to benefit it.  On the other hand, Renzi, who is tipped to be the next head of the center-left, is polling better than Berlusoni.  However, the left is Italy is in disarray.   Yet, unlike the center-right and Grillo who want Italy out of EMU, Letta knows that the future of Italy is inextricably tied to Europe.


Early Tuesday  morning currency crosses;  (8 am)

Tuesday morning we  see a little euro weakness against the dollar from the close on Monday  with this time still trading well above  the  1.30 mark at 1.3077. . The yen this  morning, temporarily stops  with its bleeding  against  the dollar for now,  trading well below the 98 column early in the session  at  97.46 yen to the dollar.  The pound, this morning is a little weaker against the USA dollar, falling below  the 1.55 column at 1.5477. The Canadian dollar is also a little weaker  against the dollar at 1.0116.   We have the sentiment this morning with a mainly  risk on situation with most of our European  bourses  in the green.   The Nikkei exchange was opened for business on Tuesday and it fell as perceived stimulus is just not functioning and of course, the reason for the yen to rise .  Gold and silver are up  in the early morning, with gold trading at $1470.00 (up $1.60 )  and silver is at $24.28 up 10 cents in early morning European trading.

The USA index is up 2 cents at 82.17.

Euro/USA    1.3077  down  .0020
USA/yen  97.46  down .38
GBP/USA     1.5477 down .0014
USA/Can      1.0116 up .0004


And now your closing Spanish 10 year bond yield: (lower by 02 in yield)

(excess USA, and Japanese funds are finding their way into Spanish and Italian bonds driving down their yield)


+ Add to Watchlist


4.140.02 0.48%
As of 11:59:00 ET on 04/30/2013.


Your Italian 10 year bond yield;  (down .02 in yield )

Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield



3.890.02 0.54%


The Euro rose throughout the afternoon closing above the 1.31 mark at 1.3167 .  The yen remained the same  in the afternoon closing at 97.41.  The pound strengthened this afternoon after its  advance yesterday, closing  at 1.5532.  The Canadian dollar firmed up a bit this afternoon  against the dollar closing at 1.0116.

The USA index fell  from the morning session with the final index number down 43 cents to 81.72

Euro/USA    1.3167 up  .0070
USA/Yen  97.412    down .428
GBP/USA     1.5532  up .0041
USA/Can      1.0065  down .0041


Your closing figures from Europe today. 

i) England/FTSE down 27.90  points   or 0.43%  

ii) Paris/CAC down 11.93 or 0.31% 
iii) German DAX: up 40.21 or 0.51%
iv) Spanish ibex down 31.90 points  or 0.38%

v) Italian bourse (MIB) down 162.02  points or .96%

and the Dow up 21.05 (0.14%)  


And now for your important USA stories:

The big news of the day, the huge Chicago national PMI implosion falling to 49 from 52.4

Anything below 50 is recession!

(courtesy zero hedge)

Welcome Back Recession: Chicago PMI Implodes To 49, First Sub-50 Print Since September 2009

Tyler Durden's picture

Total collapse. That is the only way to explain what just happened with the Chicago PMI which imploded from 52.4, and printed at a contractionary 49: the first sub-50 headline print since September 2009. But that's not all: Deliveries, Prices Paid and Production all hit their lowest since 2009; Backlogs posted their tenth month of contraction in the past 12 months. And what's worst for the Department of Making Shit Up, Employment plunged from 551. to 48.7, its third month over month decline. Actually another way to phrase it: complete disaster. Obviously this number explains why S&P should have no problems crossing 1,600 today. Because for that other Department: of Propaganda and Creating money out of thin air, this means only one thing: the Fed is preparing to print ONE KROOGOL MORE!
It appears nobody told the respondents that the economy is back in stall speed.
  • Business activity was soft again in March, but we are optimistic for 2nd quarter and overall for 2013. Seems like some key raw materials are forecasted to moderate and even decline a bit over next several months, e.g. linerboard, resins.
  • Our orders are consistent, we have a steady flow of work currently, 1st quarter was a huge improvement from 2012 start.
  • New order intake is steady but remains at the lowered 2012 level. Afraid this may become the dreaded "new normal".
  • "Business is steady as she goes."
  • The economy is looking as if it is turning the corner. It is slowly gaining and looks like it will continue to do so.
Full horrendous report here
Meanwhile, elsewhere in contradictory reports...
Consumer Confidence just smashed expectations to the upside by the most in 14 months...

Led - surprise - by hope and dreams of the future... at its highest in 5 months...


Well that about does it for today.

I will see you tomorrow night



Diego said...

Harvey, THANK YOU for your work !

force majeure said...

A little elaboration on JPM's shifting 270 tons of silver would be entertaining.

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