Gold on Friday rebounded nicely to the tune of $4.90 to rest at comex closing time at $1620.40. Silver was a little under the weather falling by 43 cents to $30.04. However in the access market with the Dow plummeting by 240 points, here are the final access closing prices for our two metals:
You can visualize that gold is trying to decouple from the Dow as the bankers are losing control over this ancient metal of Kings. The bankers still have some control over silver but that too will fade. Let us have a complete look at trading, inventory movements, the COT report, and the amount of gold and silver standing for October.
The total gold comex open interest fell by 7903 contracts on Friday as we are seeing a combination of bankers cover their shorts and weaker longs pitch as margin requirements are just too large. The comex is becoming a physical market as many see the crooked games played by the bankers and just shy away. The final resting OI is now down to 445,479 from Thursday's level of 453,292. The open interest recorded for first day notice in gold came in at a remarkably high 6533 contracts. This is generally what will stand. However we have Blythe and her team providing paper fiat to settle so we will have to wait until the end of the month to see how many physical ounces have settled. The next battleground is the December contract and here the OI fell by 4000 contracts to 283,105. The estimated volume on Friday was a very tepid 134,438 compared to the confirmed volume on Thursday at 204,636.
The total silver comex OI did not follow gold. Its OI rose slightly by 818 contracts as investors around the world are reacting to bullion dealers showing "out of silver" signs. The USA mint recorded over 4 million oz of silver eagles sales. The USA only produces 40 million oz so silver must be imported to satisfy the mint production. Thus for the comex to get silver it must import silver from the rest of world. The final OI resting spot for silver on Friday registered 101,396 and Thursday's level was 100,578. The options expiry month of October saw 464 contracts standing on Friday night, a small drop from Thursday's level of 468. Nobody pitched their Oct futures contract on the Thursday raid. The next big delivery month for silver is December where the OI actually rose by 1346 contracts rising from 60,847 to 62,193. The estimated volume was the weakest in quite some time: 37,993. The confirmed volume on Thursday was better at 57,312. As I reiterated to you on many occasions, the high margin requirements has caused the volume and drop off as this market is strictly a physical market. The leverage in the future silver market is 6:1. To many it is just not worth playing. You might as well buy the physical, put it away and not play with the crooks.
Inventory Movements and Delivery Notices for Gold: Oct 1.2011:
Initial Chart for Oct.
Now we know the reason why large amounts of gold oz are leaving the vaults.
The number of gold ounces standing is extremely high for a weak delivery month as most play December. It seems that some players just could not wait for December and rushed into October. Let us see inventory movements and then the amount of gold standing:
Again no dealer gold deposit and for that matter no dealer withdrawal.
The customer had the following deposits:
1. A surprisingly high 3215 oz of gold into Manfra (usually reserved for the tiny stuff)
2. Into Scotia: 2601 oz.
total deposit 5816 oz.
The withdrawals were huge:
1. Out of Manfra: 482 oz
2. Out of Scotia: a monstrous 48,240 oz
for the past few days we have seen large withdrawals.
We did have an adjustment of 552 oz out of Brinks as an accounting error.
Total registered gold: 2.033 million oz.
The CME notified us that we had 2781 notices filed for first day notice for 278,100 oz of gold. In order to obtain what will stand, I take the OI standing for October
(6533) and subtract out the deliveries (2781) which leaves us with 3752 notices or 375200 oz left to be served upon.
Thus the total number of gold ounces standing for October is as follows:
278,100 oz (served) + 375,200 (oz to be served) = 653,300 oz or 20.3 tonnes which is absolutely huge for this month.
What is also alarming is that last night the CME sent notice that another 2602 contracts will be served on Monday for Tuesday delivery. It appears that Blythe is not making much headway in the fiat dollars for gold. They are all standing for the real metal.
Let us go to silver.
Again no silver was deposited by the dealer and again no withdrawal by the dealer.
The customer had no deposits on Friday as the only transactions were withdrawals:
1. From Brinks: 23,241 oz
2. From Delaware: 14,643 oz
3. From HSBC 444,455 oz
total withdrawal 482,239 oz
There was no adjustments.
The registered silver remains at 31.09 million oz
The total of all silver lowers to 106.7 million oz.
The CME notified us that we had 450 notices filed for 2,250,000 oz of silver
which is quite high for a first day non delivery month. To obtain what is left to be served, I take the OI standing for October (464) and subtract out Friday notices (450) which will leave us with 14 notices or 70,000 oz left to be served upon.
Thus the total number of silver oz standing in this non delivery month of October is as follows:
2,250,000 oz (served) + 70,000 (oz to be served) = 2,320,000 oz
Late last night the CME announced the second day of delivery notices in silver totaling 4 contracts.
I will make a gentleman's bet that the number of silver oz standing for the month will rise appreciably as bankers scramble for ever depleting silver.
Total Gold in Trust: Oct 1 2011
Total Gold in Trust: sept 29.2011
|Ounces of Silver in Trust||321,368,422.900|
|Tonnes of Silver in Trust||9,995.68|
|Ounces of Silver in Trust||323,753,501.100|
|Tonnes of Silver in Trust||10,069.86|
|Ounces of Silver in Trust||323,753,501.100|
|Tonnes of Silver in Trust||10,069.86|
Friday night saw the release of the COT report and it was rather stunning. All COT reports are from a Tuesday to a Tuesday. (Sept 20 through to Sept 27)
Gold COT Report - Futures
Change from Prior Reporting Period
non reportable positions
Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report - Positions as of
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Wow! you can see for yourself the modus operandi of the bankers. They supply contracts at the right time (plus announcements of margin hikes) and cause an avalanche of selling tripping stop losses etc. The huge increase in margin requirements plus this selling did the damage.
You can see that the large speculators that have been long in gold, were blown out to the tune of 31,086 contracts.
Those large speculators that have been short gold covered a huge 8,358 contracts.
And now for our commercials:
Those small specs that have been short in gold surprisingly added 2308 contracts to their short side.
The small specs generally get it wrong.
Silver COT Report - Futures
non reportable positions
Change from the previous reporting period
COT Silver Report - Positions as of
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Will Start Of Landesbank Mortgage Litigation Against Bank Of America Push Stock To New 52 Week Lows?
JPMorgan Chase & Co and Bank of America Corp were hit with new lawsuits by investors seeking to recover losses on $4.5 billion of soured mortgage debt, expanding the litigation targeting the two largest U.S. banks.
Sealink Funding Ltd said between 2005 and 2007 it bought nearly $2.4 billion of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) from JPMorgan and $1.6 billion from Bank of America in reliance on offering materials that were misleading about the quality of the underwriting and underlying loans.
According to court papers, Sealink is an Irish entity that oversees RMBS purchased by special purchase vehicles once sponsored by SachsenLB.
Another plaintiff, Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg, raised similar claims in a separate lawsuit against JPMorgan over $500 million of RMBS that it said it bought.
The plaintiffs seek compensatory and punitive damages.
Submitted by cpowell on 11:54AM ET Friday, September 30, 2011. Section: Daily Dispatches
2:53p ET Friday, September 30, 2011
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Market analyst Gerald Celente today tells GoldSeek Radio's Chris Waltzek that the recent plunge in gold was "engineered" by central banks to scare people out of investing in precious metals. You can read and listen to the interview at GoldSeek here:http://news.goldseek.com/radio/1317403732.php
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
The German Dax was down 137 points or 2.44%.
London's FTSE was down 24 points or .85%
The Paris stock index the CAC was down 1.51%
European inflation unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest in almost three years in September, complicating the European Central Bank’s task as it fights the region’s worsening sovereign-debt crisis.
The euro-area inflation rate jumped to 3 percent this month from 2.5 percent in August, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today in an initial estimate. That’s the biggest annual increase in consumer prices since October 2008. Economists had projected inflation to hold at 2.5 percent, according to the median of 38 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
Faster inflation increases pressure on an economy already hurt by tougher austerity measures and waning investor confidence as governments struggle to contain the fiscal crisis. European economic confidence slumped more than economists forecast this month and German retail sales fell the most in more than four years in August. Commerzbank AG said today that the region "looks set to slip into a recession."
"It’s more of a technical thing than a fundamental change," said Laurent Bilke, global head of inflation strategy at Nomura International Plc in London, which was the only bank to forecast the right inflation rate in the Bloomberg survey. "The ECB is not going to cut in October and obviously strong inflation doesn’t give them much room for maneuver on that side. They will probably need a few more months of negative economic news to get there, maybe in November or December."
The euro extended declines after the report, trading at $1.3493 at 12:49 p.m. in Brussels, down 0.7 percent on the day. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index dropped as much as 2.3 percent.
Investor concern that European governments may be unable to contain the debt crisis and prevent a Greek default has weighed on equity markets and pushed the euro lower. Germany’s benchmark DAX Index (DAX) has shed 21 percent over the pasts two months, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down 14 percent.
The ECB, which aims to keep annual gains in consumer prices just below 2 percent, said earlier this month that inflation may average 2.6 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2012. Economic growth may weaken to 1.3 percent next year from 1.6 percent in 2011, it said.
Italy’s harmonized inflation quickened to 3.5 percent in September from 2.3 percent in August. In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, inflation also accelerated more than economists forecast this month, with consumer prices rising 2.8 percent from a year earlier, up from an annual 2.5 percent. Spain’s harmonized inflation rate jumped to 3 percent from 2.7 percent. There’s no September data available for France.
With companies reluctant to boost hiring and increasing price pressures eroding their purchasing power, consumers may keep spending plans on hold. European economic confidence dropped to the lowest in almost two years this month and services output contracted.
Still, ECB officials have indicated the central bank is more likely to take non-standard measures first before resorting to rate cuts. Council members Ewald Nowotny and Luc Coene signaled the ECB may offer banks unlimited liquidity for as long as a year, while a euro-area central banking official speaking on condition of anonymity said policy makers will also debate restarting their covered-bond purchases.
"We suspect the ECB may be reluctant to cut interest rates in the near term," said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Groep NV (INGA) in Amsterdam, calling today’s report a "bombshell." The central bank "may instead opt to take steps to improve market functioning."
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, who will retire at the end of October, said on Sept. 8 that inflation rates are "likely to stay clearly above" 2 percent in the coming months before falling below the central bank’s ceiling in 2012. This assessment is based on "moderate economic growth," he said. Trichet will be succeeded by Italy’s Mario Draghi.
Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight in London, said Draghi "may be reluctant to see interest-rate cuts straight away" when taking over.
"Despite the jump in inflation in September, there is evidence that underlying euro-zone price pressures are abating in the face of weakened economic activity and high unemployment," he said. "An ECB move as soon as next Thursday is unlikely."
The statistics office will release a breakdown of September consumer prices next month. Euro-region core inflation, which excludes volatile costs such as energy, held at 1.2 percent in August from the previous month.To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Zurich at firstname.lastname@example.org
No wonder gold is leaving comex, GLD and the B. of E as poorer nations realize that the printing press is running full tilt and will bring to the world a hyperinflationary depression:
Remember that the consumer spending is 70% of GDP: (courtesy reuters)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Consumer spending adjusted for inflation was flat in August as income fell for the first time in nearly two years amid a weak labor market, according to a government report on Friday.
The Commerce Department said real consumer spending was unchanged after rising 0.4 percent in July. Nominal spending was up 0.2 percent after increasing 0.7 percent in July. The increase last month was in line with economists' expectations.
Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.Weak incomes as employment growth ground to a halt and earnings fell hurt spending in August. Income slipped 0.1 percent, the first decline since October 2009, with private wages and salaries dropping $12.2 billion.
Economists had expected income to edge up 0.1 percent.
Consumer spending growth slowed sharply to a 0.7 percent annual pace in the second quarter after advancing 2.1 percent in the first three months of the year.
Last month real spending on goods fell 0.2 percent, while services ticked up 0.1 percent. Disposable income was unchanged for the first time since September, but when adjusted for inflation fell 0.3 percent, the largest drop since October 2009.
With real disposable income weak, savings fell to an annual rate of $519.3 billion, the smallest since December 2009, from $550.5 billion in July. The savings rate dropped to 4.5 percent, also the lowest since December 2009.
NEW YORK | Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:59am EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer sentiment improved in late September but worries persisted about jobs and finances which could curb household spending in the coming months, a private survey released on Friday showed.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final September reading of the overall index on consumer sentiment stood at 59.4, up from 57.8 earlier this month. Economists had expected no change from the initial September reading.
The index finished at 55.7 in August.
(courtesy Dow Jones)
Speaking on Fox Business Network, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the biggest factor holding back the economy is "uncertainty" created by government. As long as that climate of doubt continues stimulus provided by the Fed will be ineffective, he said.
That said, the central banker is worried about the economy. Growth is "anemic" and while "I am not concerned about a double dip [recession]...we are on an edge here," Fisher said. He said the nation's fiscal authorities "have done a horrible job" and things like the battle over the debt ceiling during the summer were "a horrible setback" for the nation's economy.
Fisher's comments came from an interview with the television news channel. The official is one of three central bankers who dissented at last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Fisher, along with the leaders of the Philadelphia and Minneapolis Fed banks, believes the current challenges of the economy cannot be solved with additional policy support from the central bank.
Last week, the Fed decided that it would sell $400 billion of its short-dated holdings, and use the proceeds to buy longer-dated securities. Officials hope this action, called Operation Twist by market participants, will help make credit costs cheaper and give the economy more of a chance to grow.(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Out of Germany we hear that the Germans have no appetite for a leveraged salvage of the PIIGS:
Many have written to me whether we will experience a Japanese type of deflation.
Here is a great article written by Wolf Richter which dispels the premise that the end game for us is deflation:
(courtesy Wolf Richter) site: www.testosteronepit.com
Deflation In Japan And Its Chances In The U.S.
(courtesy Jim Sinclair)
Posted: 30 Sep 2011 01:25 PM PDT
Wall Street Protest Starting to Look Like Egypt
Wall Street Protest Starting to Look Like Tahrir Square, Egypt
NYPD police scanners are estimating a crowd up to 5,000
are occupying liberty square in a scene that is now starting to look
more like Egypt’s Tahrir square.
The protests have become so large that Fox News has set up a live stream covering the protests. Here are some screen shots from their camera.
Who Are the Protesters?
“hippies” who “need to get a job” (to which the protesters would
respond: That’s the point – There are no jobs, because Wall Street has destroyed the economy.)
He has a point: if Wall Street is reined in so that the rest of the
country has a chance, the bankers might have to cut back on their mistresses, prostitutes and solid gold toilets.
There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war ….
America is starting to look more and more like Egypt – with a handful of
super-rich, and crumbs for everyone else.
I find that the following article by Ambrose Evans Pritchard on the German situation with funding for the EFSF:
He is correct, this will result in the death of the EU fiscal union.
(courtesy of Ambrose Evans Pritchard of the UK Telegraph)
NEIN, NEIN, NEIN, and the death of EU Fiscal Union
Greek Banana Republic Status Upgraded To AAA After Sit-Ins At Eight Ministries Prevent Troika Inspections
The inspectors met with Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos at the deputy prime minister’s office on Zalocosta Street instead, a meeting that went relatively well according to reports, making amends for a rather disastrous meeting in late August that had led to the troika’s hasty departure.
The new snags concern the labor standby system, closed-shop professions and the privatizations.
By Monday, the troika will need to have completed its assessment, while the government must have approved the labor standby system, as well as the new public sector salary system, the 2012 budget draft and the new midterm fiscal plan. Venizelos therefore had an extraordinary meeting with Administrative Reform Minister Dimitris Reppas on Thursday evening, and there will be an extraordinary cabinet meeting on Sunday.
Public sector workers also staged sit-ins at seven other ministries on Thursday, but decided to leave during the day. Protesters intend to stay at the Finance Ministry until tonight while the sit-in at the ELSTAT building is not seen ending before Sunday.Meanwhile the government has resorted to withholding the salaries of state employees who have outstanding tax debts, provided their monthly salary exceeds 1,000 euros. Already 20 civil aviation authority employees have had their salaries withheld.