Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:
Before commencing, I would like to introduce to you our newest arrival in the banking morgue:
Heritage Bank, Snohomish Washington. All assets were assumed by Columbia State Bank.
Gold finished the comex session at $1536.50 for a gain of $13.50 for the day. Silver behaved as if still under the influence of the bankers, rising by only 34 cents to $37.86. Silver was rebuffed continually at the "magical" 38.00 dollar level. Gold was trading as if the bankers have lost control.
There was considerable activity at the comex and a lot of mysteries to solve which I am going to ask you, as master sleuths to ascertain answers.
Let us proceed with the gold comex first:
The total gold comex open interest surprised all of us with a massive 19,395 loss of open interest. The total OI fell from 513,918 to 494,494. The official response is that many long specs refused to roll and took profits coupled with our bankers covering their shorts. This is hard to fathom given that gold demand is at record levels throughout the globe as many nations seek out the metal due to the global financial turbulence. Throughout this commentary I will give you the data (tools) to come up with what is going on inside the comex walls. The front options expiry month is now off the board. We had an open interest of 7 remaining on Thursday with 1 delivery notice to be subtracted or 6 notices to be served upon.
The big front month of June saw its OI fall from 94,016 to 34,159. This number is basis Thursday night so I will still need to see Tuesday's open interest in order to determine how many gold oz are standing for the month. I will give you the intent notices to be filed later in my commentary. The next delivery month of August saw its OI rise from 258,706 to 297,903 for a gain of 39,197 contracts. The estimated volume at the gold comex on Friday was 195,027 which is kind of light considering the switches. The confirmed volume on Thursday was 328,564. Gold rose on both Thursday and Friday.
And now for silver:
The total comex silver OI fell by 2021 contracts at a much slower contraction that its older and wiser cousin, gold. The front month of May is off the board. If you will recall, the open interest on the May month was 159 and with 13 delivery notices to be subtracted, we were expecting 146 notices to be served.
The front delivery month of July saw its OI fall from 63,093 to 60,997. The estimated volume on Friday, at the silver comex was quite subdued as of late, at 46,976. The confirmed volume for Thursday was better at 83,095.
Now for the fireworks:
Here is the chart for 5/28/2011 regarding deliveries and inventory changes at the comex. This concludes the month of May.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory 29,397 (Brinks)
Withdrawals fromCustomer Inventory 246,227 (Scotia, HSBC,Manfra)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 3,800( Brinks)
No of oz served (contracts) today 2900 (29)
No of oz to be served (notices) all contracts fulfilled
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 56900 (569)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month 31,209
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month 896,940
Gold | Ounces |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | 29,397 (Brinks) |
Withdrawals fromCustomer Inventory | 246,227 (Scotia, HSBC,Manfra) |
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | NIL |
Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 3,800( Brinks) |
No of oz served (contracts) today | 2900 (29) |
No of oz to be served (notices) | all contracts fulfilled |
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 56900 (569) |
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | 31,209 |
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | 896,940 |
Let us begin with gold. The pace at the gold comex yesterday was quite fierce.
As you can see from the inventory movements, gold saw another of those perfectly round gold deposits into a customer's vault at Brinks. This time the deposit was 3800 oz of gold. The dealer did not have any deposit of gold. However it did have a very sizeable 29,397 oz from our good friends over at the Brink's vault.
The customer had some unbelievable transactions yesterday:
1. customer number l: 9194 oz withdrawal from Scotia
2. customer number 2: 236,969 oz withdrawal from HSBC
3. customer number 3: 64 of withdrawal from Manfra
total withdrawal by customer: 246,227 oz.
If you are keeping score, the net withdrawal by the customer reads:
242,427 oz. That was quite a withdrawal yesterday by the customer.
As I mentioned to you above, we were expecting 6 delivery notices to be sent down for the final day. We got 29 notices for 2900 oz of gold as some of the bankers needed gold in a hurry. Thus the final number of gold notices for the month of May turned out to be 569 for 56900 oz of gold. There are no more notices to be filed for May. We had a tiny adjustment of 4102 oz of gold leaving the dealer paying the customer back for a prior liability commitment.
Thus the total oz of gold that stood for gold and received gold notices for May total 56900 oz of gold or 1.769 tonnes of gold. On Thursday we had 54,600 oz so we gained 2,300 oz of gold officially standing.
Late last night we received our first delivery intent for the June month for gold.
A total of 1,950 notices were served upon our longs for 195,000 oz. We still need the open interest to get a feel as to how many are initially standing.
And now for silver:
Dan Norcini stated I believe that the silver raid commencing on the first of May was a drive by shooting. I would like to state that the drive by shooting was accompanied by the criminal banks staying at the scene of the crime. The bankers were defending the 38 dollar level probably due to the huge number of short contracts that they supplied in the OTC market which we do not see.
Here is the official closing accounts for silver for the Month of May
Silver | Ounces |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | 373,379 oz (Brinks) |
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 9649 (Brinks, ) |
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
Deposits to the Customer Inventory | nil |
No of oz served (contracts) today | 685,000 (137) |
No of oz to be served (notices) | all contracts fulfilled |
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) so far this month | 3,405,000 (681) |
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | 666,262 oz |
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer Inventory this month. | 5,026,581 |
Let us begin:
The dealer received no silver deposits yesterday. The customer also had no deposits.
However we had considerable activity in the withdrawal department.
The dealer at the Brinks official warehouse removed a massive: 373,379 oz of silver
A customer at Brinks also removed a tiny 9649 oz.
The adjustments were also big:
We had two adjustments and both saw the dealer repay the customer or the dealer did not have a proper warrant for sale so they adjusted the inventory over to the eligible side (customer). Here are the two adjustments;
1. 592,406 oz (Brinks)
2. 9758 oz (Scotia)
total adjustments: 602,164 oz.
The new final comex silver inventory for the dealer now drops to 31.102 million oz of supposed unencumbered silver. I believe that it is all encumbered!
As I mentioned above, we were expecting 146 notices to be filed for the last day. We got two separate delivery notices filed for the last day of May: 136 and another 1 notice for a total of 137.
This equates to 685,000 oz of silver. The official number of notices filed for delivery for May is now 681 for 3,405,000 oz. This is the official number of silver oz standing for the delivery month of May. On Thursday we had a reading of:3,450,000 oz so Blythe needed her cheque-book on the last day as 45,000 oz of silver were cash settled.
Late last night, we got the delivery intent notices to be filed for the first day delivery for silver on options exercised. It was quite high at 178 notices for 890,000 oz of silver.
Let us see how the month of June progresses as this number will advance in number.
I would like to share with you a commentary written by Ted Butler who is very concerned by the inactivity of the CFTC. He describes in detail the drive by shooting of silver on May lst, the massive shortfall of silver by the criminal entity SLV and other important details.
courtesy Ted Butler of Silverseek.com
By: Theodore Butler
-- Posted 26 May, 2011 | Share this article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 3 (This was sent to subscribers on May 25) In my latest dispatch to subscribers, I tried to describe the favorable set up for higher prices present in silver and other metals markets. That favorable set up may be in the process of unfolding. This set up was created, particularly in silver, as a result of the engineered takedown we just experienced. Having already discussed what may develop from this point, I would like to vent a bit about what just occurred. It still amazes me that so few seem to be outraged by what transpired in the silver market starting on Sunday, May 1. That night, silver plunged sharply, by $6 an ounce (or 13%) in minutes, setting the stage for a one-week price decline of 30%. Simply stated, a 30% decline in one week in any commodity market is a very big deal, especially when there was no supply/demand news to account for it. More outrageous is that the primary regulators of the silver market, the CFTC and the CME group, have not publicly commented on the big market plunge in silver. Let me see if I can put this plunge and the lack of comment by the primary regulators into some perspective. Try to imagine a tragic commercial plane crash with no comment from the Federal Aviation Administration or the National Transportation Safety Board for three weeks. Or a case of tampering with a common cold remedy (Tylenol) that resulted in public harm that the Federal Drug Administration refused to comment on. Or a stock market crash of 30% in a week that drew no comment from the Securities & Exchange Commission or the New York Stock Exchange. Such occurrences and no comment from the primary regulators would be unimaginable. Yet this just occurred in the silver market. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) holds that its primary mission is to protect the public from fraud, abuse and manipulation. Yet the public has just been subjected to fraud, abuse and manipulation in silver by virtue of the one-week 30% intentional price plunge and the Commission has not lifted a finger to protect the public. Or even to comment on it. How deep of a silver market plunge would it take for the agency to comment – 50% or 90%? I realize that silver had climbed in price sharply before its sudden plunge, rising by more than $20 per ounce from the end of January to a high of $49 by the end of April. That climb took three months. Almost $15 of that gain was wiped out in one week. I know that the popular version of what caused the price surge was irrational speculative buying which created a bubble in price that burst. But I also know that the actual data directly contradicts the popular version. CFTC data in the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) indicate speculative selling into the price peak, accompanied by commercial buying (short-covering). Granted, the intentional price smash generated further speculative selling, but that doesn’t change the fact that speculative buying did not cause the silver run up. By remaining quiet on the matter, the CFTC is aiding and abetting the manipulation and the dissemination of false market information. This is as contrary to commodity law as is possible. In light of the highly unusual circumstances that surrounded the sudden decline in silver (on no fundamental developments) the Commission’s silence creates the impression among many that it may be complicit in the decline. No good purpose is served by the impression that the CFTC is ineffective, or worse, in its most basic mission of protecting the public. Unfortunately, this impression has been nurtured by a regular pattern of apparent neglect of the public’s interest by the Commission. The public has notified the Commission on numerous occasions and in great numbers concerning some very specific issues in the silver market, namely, position limits and the concentration on the short side in COMEX futures. The only reaction from the Commission comes in personal comments by Commissioner Bart Chilton. While Chilton is to be commended for his acknowledgement of the importance of these matters, it is not right that the Commission stays silent on an official basis. I certainly admit to my own role in pressing the Commission for answers to straightforward questions and in suggesting solutions for consideration. And that role included encouraging others to press the Commission as well. Those that have contacted the CFTC know that these are serious issues that deserved to be fully aired. Yet, with the exception of Commissioner Chilton, the agency has avoided responding to the public on all matters related to silver. This is not the correct way to serve the public. Away from the Commission, the silence on the part of the CME Group, owner of the COMEX, is equally outrageous. The latest intentional silver takedown began with the blatant early Sunday evening assassination of the price. The killing took place on the CME-run Globex electronic trading system, executed by exchange insiders. It was this electronic system that provided the means and opportunity and documented trading trail of the crime. The motive has always been the buying back of an uneconomic short position after first creating distress selling through manipulative dirty tricks. The well-timed margin increases by the CME amounted to piling on and adding icing to the crooked cake. Between the CFTC (which I still consider incompetent, rather than duplicitous) and the CME (which I have always considered an ongoing criminal enterprise), you would think there would be enough silver silence to go around. But there’s more. It has been two and a half years since I publicly indentified and accused JPMorgan as being the big concentrated silver short and chief manipulator. JPM has managed to close out much of its short position (at great loss) but still while bullying the market. Yet, in all that time JPMorgan has never uttered a word about being accused of the most serious market crime possible. This despite countless law suits alleging the same silver manipulation some six months ago. I know that allegations and legal findings can be two very different things, but I never thought an entity like JPMorgan (or the CME) would ever remain silent in the face of repetitive and specific allegations. Lastly, the largest money manager in the world, BlackRock, has joined the silver soul mates of silence in not responding to allegations of negligence. In allowing the short position in shares of their big silver ETF, SLV, to balloon to the equivalent of more than 36 million ounces just before the price smash, BlackRock played a key role in enabling the 30% price plunge. BlackRock knew, or should have known, that there was no real metal backing up the shorted shares and that served as a key silver price depressant. As I do with JPMorgan and the CME, I make sure the highest officials at BlackRock are aware of my allegations. At the very least, the CFTC, JPMorgan, the CME Group and now BlackRock, are at the very top of the regulatory and financial food chain. As such, they are not some 90-pound defenseless weaklings. By law, these entities must behave in an appropriate manner. I don’t believe that any of these entities have been behaving appropriately when it comes to protecting the public interest in matters related to silver. I know this is maddeningly frustrating to objective observers. What can you do about it? There is only one answer. You must contact your elected officials. This is something that I have been neglectful in emphasizing, as a subscriber recently reminded me. Before you conclude that this will be a fruitless endeavor, please allow me to recall an incident that would suggest otherwise. Back in 2008, a reader of my articles took the time (at no suggestion from me) to write to his local congressman about my findings of concentration in the August 2008 Bank Participation Report. In turn, this congressman wrote to the CFTC about my allegations. As a result of the CFTC responding to the representative, it was revealed that JPMorgan was the big short in COMEX silver. That is what enabled me to discover the identity of the big silver short. If that reader didn’t take it on himself to write in the first place, I wouldn’t have been able to draw a bead on JPMorgan and much of the progress towards ending the silver manipulation over the past two years would not have occurred. The stakes here are far higher. We have just witnessed the most blatant act of manipulation in the history of the silver market with the take down that commenced on Sunday evening, May 1. Everyone involved who should have prevented this manipulation and protected the public failed to do so. Everyone involved who should have explained what took place afterward have failed to do so. This is unacceptable in a lawful society. The only remedy is to force these entities, namely, the CFTC and the CME Group, to do what they are required to do. Everyone has someone that they must answer to. The CFTC and the CME Group must answer to Congress. Congress, in turn, must answer to those who elect them to office. That’s you. Ask your elected officials to press the CFTC and the CME to do what they must do – end this silver manipulation. You don’t have to put yourself in jeopardy by making any allegations, as I’ve already done that for you. The allegations are contained in this article and other articles I have written. Ask you senator and congressman to press the CFTC and the CME to address the allegations. Send them this article. I promise you that it won’t do any harm and may do a great deal of good. I also promise you that these are serious matters in which you won’t be wasting anyone’s time. Ted Butler For subscription info please go to www.butlerresearch.com |
end.
Let us now proceed to our ETF's SLV and GLD and then our physical gold and silver funds:
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
First GLD inventory changes: May 28.2011 :
Total Gold in Trust
Tonnes: 1,213.17
Ounces:39,004,604.95
Value US$:
59,774,677,267.92
59,774,677,267.92
May 26.2011:
Total Gold in Trust
Tonnes: 1,214.08
Ounces:39,033,841.61
Value US$:
59,587,251,642.35
59,587,251,642.35
We gained: .91 tonnes of gold (a short ton)
Let us see if any changes in the SLV: May 28 2011:
no changes as the inventory for today matches Thursday night:
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 319,621,250.900 |
| Tonnes of Silver in Trust | 9,941.33 |
Let us head over to our closed physical funds that we follow: the Central Fund of Canada and Sprott's gold and silver funds:
1. Central Fund of Canada: it is trading at a negative 0.1% in usa funds and negative 0.1% for Cdn funds.
1. Central Fund of Canada: it is trading at a negative 0.1% in usa funds and negative 0.1% for Cdn funds.
May 28.2011
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV fell slightly to 18.92% positive NAV May 26.2011
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rose to a positive 3.02% to NAV (May 28.2011).
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV fell slightly to 18.92% positive NAV May 26.2011
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rose to a positive 3.02% to NAV (May 28.2011).
The Central fund of Canada has its own individual gold fund by itself and a silver fund. Both of these are trading at positives to NAV.
There most be considerable hanky-panky going on with the banker shorts at the central fund of Canada
end.
Let us proceed to the COT report and see what we can glean from that data:
Here is the official COT report courtesy of Goldseek.com
Gold COT Report - Futures | ||||||
Large Speculators | Commercial | Total | ||||
Long | Short | Spreading | Long | Short | Long | Short |
240,461 | 68,067 | 38,165 | 185,259 | 402,496 | 463,885 | 508,728 |
Change from Prior Reporting Period | ||||||
13,040 | 5,249 | 10,362 | -3,854 | 6,434 | 19,548 | 22,045 |
Traders | ||||||
202 | 73 | 76 | 51 | 53 | 288 | 177 |
Small Speculators | ||||||
Long | Short | Open Interest | ||||
67,295 | 22,452 | 531,180 | ||||
2,468 | -29 | 22,016 | ||||
non reportable positions | Change from the previous reporting period | |||||
COT Gold Report - Positions as of | Tuesday, May 24, 2011 | |||||
In the gold COT report,
The large speculators that have been long continued to pour into those positions to the tune of 13,040 contracts.
The speculators that have been short gold added another 5,249
contracts to their shorts and are crying this weekend.
The commercials that have been long gold lightened up a bit on their long
positions to the tune of 3854 contracts.
The commercials who have been short gold from the beginning of time, added
a huge 6434 shorts .
The small specs that have been long in gold added another 2468 contracts to those long positions. Those that were short covered a tiny 29 contracts.
In conclusion: look at the large spec side of things. They added contracts. So why did the OI fall on Friday? That is your 64 million dollar question.
The silver COT:
Silver COT Report - Futures | ||||||
Large Speculators | Commercial | Total | ||||
Long | Short | Spreading | Long | Short | Long | Short |
31,754 | 14,171 | 27,380 | 33,663 | 68,622 | 92,797 | 110,173 |
818 | 670 | 2,952 | -2,419 | -1,477 | 1,351 | 2,145 |
Traders | ||||||
77 | 41 | 54 | 37 | 46 | 144 | 117 |
Small Speculators | ||||||
Long | Short | Open Interest | ||||
28,598 | 11,222 | 121,395 | ||||
-183 | -977 | 1,168 | ||||
non reportable positions | Change from the pre | |||||
In silver:
the large speculators that have been long silver added a tiny 818 contracts to their long holdings.
the large speculator that have been short silver added 670 contracts to their short positions.
In the commercial category:
the large commercials that have been long silver lightened up on their positions to the tune of 2419 contracts.
And now for our famous banking shorters like JPM:
they covered 1477 contracts on their huge short positions
The small specs are just not in the game this week.
The silver COT looks more bullish by the week as the bankers cover their shorts.
end
This will conclude the physical part of my commentary. Gold seems to have regained its supremacy and is trading quite differently from silver. The physical demand for gold is on fire due to the massive turbulence from the southern European nations and of course from the natural disaster in Japan.
In two days, we have lost close to 37000 contracts on gold open interest. It looks to me like we got some sort of swap from comex OI to retrieve some gold and settle upon anxious longs over in London. It is just my guess. I will let you master sleuths come up with an answer to what is happening in gold.
Here is a follow up letter sent by GATA member James McShirley to the CFTC:
Dear Sirs, Madams,
This is a follow-up to the letter I sent you last Friday, May 20th. I have subsequently compiled data for all of 2010 regarding the highly suspicious Comex gold trading. In particular, I have focused this time on the London AM and PM fixes. As you probably know the AM fix occurs at 10:30 AM London time, prior to Comex trading. The PM fix occurs at 3:00 PM London time, putting it squarely in the middle of Comex trading hours. Many gold watchers have for years noticed peculiar Comex selloffs into the London close, along with sudden weakness after the London market closes. To see the intensity of Comex selling statistically is rather stunning. Keep in mind this data occurred during a year when gold rose 26.7% y/y. As you will see gold prices rose almost entirely outside of Comex trading hours. The Comex "price discovery" was, and continues to be a one-way street lower. I reiterate that the short seller(s) in suspect are certainly well-funded, HFT savvy, and without care for true price discovery.
Total trading days 254
Trading days PM fix over 2% higher than AM fix ZERO
Trading days PM fix over 1% higher than AM fix 2
Trading days PM fix either lower, or no higher than $5 211 (83.1%)
It should be obvious to anybody with a trained eye for sleuthing that something is badly wrong here. I find it incredible that for all of 2010 only TWO out of 254 trading days resulted in a PM fix higher than 1%. There was an 83% chance of either a lower close, or very minimal gain. This is totally consistent with the trading patterns for the first 5 months of 2011. Since the beginning of 2010 gold has rallied 41.5% without a SINGLE PM fix above +2%, and only 7 above 1%. There is an obvious seller who wants ALL Comex trading days capped at 1%. This is illogical from a trading perspective, and defies all fundamentals, technicals, and news-driven events. I can't imagine a more obvious example of tape painting, and am again requesting you investigate Comex gold trading manipulation in addition to the silver investigation. I realize your tools for identifying manipulation are undoubtedly sophisticated, so you should have no problem modeling the odds of this happening in a free trading environment. It must be so many standard deviations off norm that you will give up counting zeros on the end. The advent of HFT systems has only accelerated the trend of manipulative trading by gold short sellers. Until the CFTC or anybody else decides to crack down I am confident this tape painting will not only continue, but worsen.
Any CFTC ruling (and crackdown) on concentrated short silver manipulation will likely put a chill into the gold manipulators as well. That doesn't mean however, that gold manipulators should be exonerated. The quickest, and only way to restore faith in the U.S. financial markets is to finally prove to investors that manipulators, including short sellers, will be held accountable. That, for many years now, has been nothing more than wishful thinking.
Sincerely,
James C. McShirley
end.
I took this graph from the latest ST LOUIS adjusted monetary base adjustments released yesterday:
Graph: St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASE)
We have now surpassed the total of 2.7 trillion dollars of adjusted monetary base for the USA banking system. We are getting closer and closer to a hyper-inflationary state. When the banks release their excess reserves, velocity of money will sky-rocket and hyperinflation will be upon us in a nano-second.
In the last 5 months, the adjusted monetary base has risen by over 30%.
With this kind of debasement no wonder gold is on a terror streak.
In the last 5 months, the adjusted monetary base has risen by over 30%.
With this kind of debasement no wonder gold is on a terror streak.
With the massive stimulation provided and the huge increase in the monetary base, it is still a wonder to the bankers that the consumer has not gone on a
spending spree again. ( courtesy of Reuters)
Consumer spending tepid
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Consumer spending rose less than expected in April as high gasoline prices continued to squeeze household budgets, according to government data on Friday which also showed annual inflation accelerating at its fastest pace in a year.
The Commerce Department said consumer spending increased 0.4 percent, rising for a 10th straight month, after a downwardly revised 0.5 percent gain in March.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, to rise 0.5 percent last month after a previously reported 0.6 percent rise in March.
When adjusted for inflation, spending nudged up 0.1 percent last month after gaining 0.1 percent in March.
The report suggested consumer spending maintained its weaker tone into the second quarter as high gasoline and food prices continue to stretch household finances.
Consumer spending rose at a 2.2 percent rate in the first quarter, braking sharply from a 4 percent pace in the October-December period.
But a recent cooling in gasoline prices should ease some of the pressure on households and boost spending in the months ahead.
High food and energy prices in April kept inflation pressures simmering, with the personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index rising 0.3 percent after advancing 0.4 percent in March.
Compared to April last year, the index was up 2.2 percent, the biggest rise in a year, after increasing 1.8 percent in March.
The core PCE index -- excluding food and energy - increased 0.2 percent after rising 0.1 percent in March.
The core index, which is closely watched by Federal Reserve officials, increased 1.0 percent in the 12 months through April , the largest gain since September. The index rose 0.9 percent year-on-year in March and the Fed would like to see it close to 2 percent.
Incomes rose 0.4 percent last month, in line with expectations. Incomes gained 0.4 percent in March. Disposable incomes adjusted for inflation were flat and savings fell to an annual rate of $570.6 billion, the lowest since August 2009, from $576.7 billion in March.
-END-
spending spree again. ( courtesy of Reuters)
Consumer spending tepid
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Consumer spending rose less than expected in April as high gasoline prices continued to squeeze household budgets, according to government data on Friday which also showed annual inflation accelerating at its fastest pace in a year.
The Commerce Department said consumer spending increased 0.4 percent, rising for a 10th straight month, after a downwardly revised 0.5 percent gain in March.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, to rise 0.5 percent last month after a previously reported 0.6 percent rise in March.
When adjusted for inflation, spending nudged up 0.1 percent last month after gaining 0.1 percent in March.
The report suggested consumer spending maintained its weaker tone into the second quarter as high gasoline and food prices continue to stretch household finances.
Consumer spending rose at a 2.2 percent rate in the first quarter, braking sharply from a 4 percent pace in the October-December period.
But a recent cooling in gasoline prices should ease some of the pressure on households and boost spending in the months ahead.
High food and energy prices in April kept inflation pressures simmering, with the personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index rising 0.3 percent after advancing 0.4 percent in March.
Compared to April last year, the index was up 2.2 percent, the biggest rise in a year, after increasing 1.8 percent in March.
The core PCE index -- excluding food and energy - increased 0.2 percent after rising 0.1 percent in March.
The core index, which is closely watched by Federal Reserve officials, increased 1.0 percent in the 12 months through April , the largest gain since September. The index rose 0.9 percent year-on-year in March and the Fed would like to see it close to 2 percent.
Incomes rose 0.4 percent last month, in line with expectations. Incomes gained 0.4 percent in March. Disposable incomes adjusted for inflation were flat and savings fell to an annual rate of $570.6 billion, the lowest since August 2009, from $576.7 billion in March.
-END-
Here is another release which shows that the housing sector in the USA economy is dismal:
(courtesy Reuters)
U.S. pending home sales dive 11.6 pct in April
WASHINGTON, May 27 (Reuters) - Pending sales of existing U.S. homes dropped far more than expected in April to touch a seven-month low, a trade group said on Friday, dealing a blow to hopes of a recovery in the housing market.
The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index dropped 11.6 percent to 81.9 in April, the lowest since September. Pending home sales lead existing home sales by a month or two.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected pending home sales to fall 1.0 percent.
-END-
(courtesy Reuters)
U.S. pending home sales dive 11.6 pct in April
WASHINGTON, May 27 (Reuters) - Pending sales of existing U.S. homes dropped far more than expected in April to touch a seven-month low, a trade group said on Friday, dealing a blow to hopes of a recovery in the housing market.
The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index dropped 11.6 percent to 81.9 in April, the lowest since September. Pending home sales lead existing home sales by a month or two.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected pending home sales to fall 1.0 percent.
-END-
Many have commented to me on this revelation of the secret advances to many of the bankers like Goldman Sachs etc:
(courtesy Huffington Post)
Federal Reserve Lending Revelations Intensify Criticism Of Central Bank's Secrecy

First Posted: 05/26/11 05:57 PM ET Updated: 05/26/11 07:57 PM EThttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/26/federal-reserve-e
mergency-loans-secret_n_867729.html?view=print
In the midst of the global financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve lent Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Royal Bank of Scotland at least $30 billion each at interest rates as low as 0.01 percent with no public disclosure of the details, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.
The latest revelations about the covert infusions of credit provided by the Fed to some of the world's largest banks has amplified accusations that the central bank is a power unto itself, operating according to its own devices and in the interest of major financial institutions -- and beyond accountability to taxpayers.
"It just points out that this was about secrecy to protect banks basically from embarrassment from transparency, which is not supposed to be what the Fed's about," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy and Research, in Washington.
"That is the fundamental problem with the Fed," Baker added. "They're supposed to be an agency of the government, not an agency of the banks. But reflexively, there they are protecting the banks, again and again and again."
Some experts say that the Fed acted properly to withhold details of the transactions, asserting the broader financial system might well have been spooked had it been known to what degree the central bank was propping up major lenders.
"Releasing data closer to the time of the crisis could have had an adverse impact on some firms," said Ernest Patrikis, a partner at the law firm White & Case and a former chief operating officer of the New York Fed. "There's a difference between a crisis and a period of time after a crisis, in terms of impact."
That was the Fed's logic, as it handed out nearly free cash to major banks and other institutions while withholding from public view the names of the recipients, the dollar figures and the terms of the loans.
But in recent months, the Fed has been forced by Congress and by a Supreme Court decision -- in a case originally filed by Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News -- to release the details of its so-called emergency lending programs. The Fed undertook those programs throughout 2008, accelerating its lending that fall in the aftermath of the collapse of the investment banking giant Lehman Brothers.In December, under orders from Congress, the Fed released a trove of documents that name the recipients of $3.3 trillion in aid intended to curb damage from the developing financial crisis. The documents describe a variety of Fed special lending facilities, including one program in which nine firms, five of them foreign, were able to borrow $5 billion for 28 days at the extremely low interest rate of 0.0078 percent, The Huffington Post reported.
In late March, the Fed released information about its primary lending facility -- the so-called discount window -- which had provided ultra-cheap cash during the height of the crisis to a range of firms. During the week in October 2008 when borrowing under the program peaked, foreign banks received more than 70 percent of the $110.7 billion that the Fed lent out, Bloomberg News reported. Arab Banking Corp., a $28 billion lender now majority-owned by Libya's central bank, got at least $3.2 billion that autumn, The Huffington Post reported.
In 2008, Bloomberg News asked for Fed records under the Freedom of Information Act, but the Fed resisted. Revealing the names of borrowers could cause "substantial competitive harm" to those institutions because they could be perceived as weak, the Fed argued in a court filing.
"[B]ecause Reserve Banks are the 'lenders of last resort,' the fact that an institution is borrowing at the [discount window], if publicly disclosed, can fuel market speculation and rumors that the entity's liquidity strains stem from a financial problem at the institution that is not publicly known," reads a May 2009 statement the Fed filed in a New York district court.
The case went to the Supreme Court, which rejected an attempt by a banking industry group to block the Fed's disclosure. So, for the first time since the Fed's discount window began lending in 1914, the central bank in late March released the identities of its primary facility's borrowers.The latest details came via an investigation published Thursday by Bloomberg News, which reported that Goldman and other financial institutions borrowed additional tens of billions from the Fed's primary source of credit.
A spokesman for the New York Fed, which administered the emergency lending program, said the Bloomberg article merely added the names of the banks that received the loans to previous public disclosures about the existence of the transactions.
"The establishment and execution" of the program "were clearly communicated to the public," the spokesperson said in an e-mailed statement. "On March 7, 2008, the New York Fed announced through a public statement its intent to conduct these open market operations. Further, the aggregate results of each auction were immediately posted on the New York Fed's web site."But the statement the spokesman referenced, written in highly technical language, does not name any recipients and indeed reads like a blanket assertion of lending authority.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has often said the Fed should be a more transparent institution. Last month, the chairman spoke to reporters at the first press conference after a committee meeting in the central bank's history.
"I personally have always been a big believer in providing as much information as you can to help the public understand what you're doing, to help the markets understand what you're doing, and to be accountable to the public for what you're doing," Bernanke said during the conference.
But Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, pointed to the latest disclosures about the extent of the Fed's covert operations as a sign that the institution has yet to live up to the standard its chairman has publicly laid out.
"People want the information, whether it's loan-level data or data on a security or on an issuer. Whatever it is, they want it," Whalen said. "But you still have the Fed, because they're such a reactionary organization, resisting this."
-END-
(courtesy Huffington Post)
Federal Reserve Lending Revelations Intensify Criticism Of Central Bank's Secrecy
First Posted: 05/26/11 05:57 PM ET Updated: 05/26/11 07:57 PM EThttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/26/federal-reserve-e
mergency-loans-secret_n_867729.html?view=print
In the midst of the global financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve lent Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Royal Bank of Scotland at least $30 billion each at interest rates as low as 0.01 percent with no public disclosure of the details, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.
The latest revelations about the covert infusions of credit provided by the Fed to some of the world's largest banks has amplified accusations that the central bank is a power unto itself, operating according to its own devices and in the interest of major financial institutions -- and beyond accountability to taxpayers.
"It just points out that this was about secrecy to protect banks basically from embarrassment from transparency, which is not supposed to be what the Fed's about," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy and Research, in Washington.
"That is the fundamental problem with the Fed," Baker added. "They're supposed to be an agency of the government, not an agency of the banks. But reflexively, there they are protecting the banks, again and again and again."
Some experts say that the Fed acted properly to withhold details of the transactions, asserting the broader financial system might well have been spooked had it been known to what degree the central bank was propping up major lenders.
"Releasing data closer to the time of the crisis could have had an adverse impact on some firms," said Ernest Patrikis, a partner at the law firm White & Case and a former chief operating officer of the New York Fed. "There's a difference between a crisis and a period of time after a crisis, in terms of impact."
That was the Fed's logic, as it handed out nearly free cash to major banks and other institutions while withholding from public view the names of the recipients, the dollar figures and the terms of the loans.
But in recent months, the Fed has been forced by Congress and by a Supreme Court decision -- in a case originally filed by Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News -- to release the details of its so-called emergency lending programs. The Fed undertook those programs throughout 2008, accelerating its lending that fall in the aftermath of the collapse of the investment banking giant Lehman Brothers.In December, under orders from Congress, the Fed released a trove of documents that name the recipients of $3.3 trillion in aid intended to curb damage from the developing financial crisis. The documents describe a variety of Fed special lending facilities, including one program in which nine firms, five of them foreign, were able to borrow $5 billion for 28 days at the extremely low interest rate of 0.0078 percent, The Huffington Post reported.
In late March, the Fed released information about its primary lending facility -- the so-called discount window -- which had provided ultra-cheap cash during the height of the crisis to a range of firms. During the week in October 2008 when borrowing under the program peaked, foreign banks received more than 70 percent of the $110.7 billion that the Fed lent out, Bloomberg News reported. Arab Banking Corp., a $28 billion lender now majority-owned by Libya's central bank, got at least $3.2 billion that autumn, The Huffington Post reported.
In 2008, Bloomberg News asked for Fed records under the Freedom of Information Act, but the Fed resisted. Revealing the names of borrowers could cause "substantial competitive harm" to those institutions because they could be perceived as weak, the Fed argued in a court filing.
"[B]ecause Reserve Banks are the 'lenders of last resort,' the fact that an institution is borrowing at the [discount window], if publicly disclosed, can fuel market speculation and rumors that the entity's liquidity strains stem from a financial problem at the institution that is not publicly known," reads a May 2009 statement the Fed filed in a New York district court.
The case went to the Supreme Court, which rejected an attempt by a banking industry group to block the Fed's disclosure. So, for the first time since the Fed's discount window began lending in 1914, the central bank in late March released the identities of its primary facility's borrowers.The latest details came via an investigation published Thursday by Bloomberg News, which reported that Goldman and other financial institutions borrowed additional tens of billions from the Fed's primary source of credit.
A spokesman for the New York Fed, which administered the emergency lending program, said the Bloomberg article merely added the names of the banks that received the loans to previous public disclosures about the existence of the transactions.
"The establishment and execution" of the program "were clearly communicated to the public," the spokesperson said in an e-mailed statement. "On March 7, 2008, the New York Fed announced through a public statement its intent to conduct these open market operations. Further, the aggregate results of each auction were immediately posted on the New York Fed's web site."But the statement the spokesman referenced, written in highly technical language, does not name any recipients and indeed reads like a blanket assertion of lending authority.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has often said the Fed should be a more transparent institution. Last month, the chairman spoke to reporters at the first press conference after a committee meeting in the central bank's history.
"I personally have always been a big believer in providing as much information as you can to help the public understand what you're doing, to help the markets understand what you're doing, and to be accountable to the public for what you're doing," Bernanke said during the conference.
But Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, pointed to the latest disclosures about the extent of the Fed's covert operations as a sign that the institution has yet to live up to the standard its chairman has publicly laid out.
"People want the information, whether it's loan-level data or data on a security or on an issuer. Whatever it is, they want it," Whalen said. "But you still have the Fed, because they're such a reactionary organization, resisting this."
-END-
I would like to add that these same banks received emergency money from the Fed and used that money in shorting silver and gold against us. This is a major complaint of mine.
end.
In international affairs, it seems that Greece is heading for default:
courtesy, Reuters and author Niki Kitsantonis:
Greek Leaders Fail to Reach Consensus on Austerity
By NIKI KITSANTONIS
ATHENS — At an emergency meeting on Friday, the country’s political leaders failed to agree on new austerity measures proposed by the government, but Prime Minister George Papandreou said there was still hope that an agreement would be reached.
“Essentially, there are many points on which we can agree,” he said, speaking to the nation in a televised speech. “But there is a need for political will from all sides.”
“Over the next few days we will continue efforts to reach a consensus,” he continued, adding that “the government has assumed the responsibility to extract the country from the crisis and will do this with or without consensus.”
But leaders of the opposition parties have refused to fall in behind the president, Karolos Papoulias, who had called the meeting. The measures have been proposed by Mr. Papandreou’s Socialist government.
The aim of Friday’s meeting was to convince officials of theEuropean Union and International Monetary Fund that Greece is serious about repairing its finances, and has the political will to impose more tax increases and spending cuts on a public already weary after a year of belt-tightening. The effort came amid mounting speculation about the Greek government’s ability to avert a default, which would very likely lead to a new financial crisis across the euro zone.
Olli Rehn, Europe’s commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, said in a statement that the commission “regrets the failure of Greek party leaders to reach consensus on economic adjustment to overcome the current debt crisis.”
“An agreement has to be found soon,” Mr. Rehn said. “Time is running out.”
Earlier in the day, Antonis Samaras, the leader of the country’s main conservative opposition party, New Democracy, said he would not back a program that would “raze Greece’s economy and destroy its society.”
He called for the renegotiation of the terms of an agreement with the union and the I.M.F., which last May pledged 110 billion euros in loans to Greece in exchange for the country’s getting its fiscal house in order.
Mr. Samaras also reiterated calls for an alternative approach to Greece’s finances, one that favored the lowering of taxes and faster privatization of state assets.
Other leaders also criticized the Socialists’ plan. Among them was the leader of the Communist Party, Aleka Papariga, who said Greeks were being subjected to “ideological terrorism” and should not give in to “coercive dilemmas.”
On Thursday, the head of the group of euro zone finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker, said again that the European Union would be unlikely to step in if the I.M.F. withheld its portion of a fifth installment of emergency funding to Greece — 12 billion euros ($17 billion) scheduled to be disbursed next month.
Greece’s lenders are demanding additional measures after the country missed its deficit-reduction target for 2010, putting the goals for this year and beyond further out of reach. A mission from the European Commission, the I.M.F. and the European Central Bank is currently compiling a much-anticipated report on the Greek government’s progress, after which European ministers will have to decide how to react.
The situation is difficult because public opinion in creditor countries is hardening and some euro zone governments, including that of the Netherlands, have made it clear that they will not step in and fill the funding gap if the I.M.F. does not believe that it can justify releasing its portion. That has increased pressure on the Greek government to agree to revenue-raising measures, including privatization, that will be sufficient to win over the I.M.F.
At the Group of 8 meeting in Deauville, France, on Friday, the United States expressed support for European efforts to prevent a renewed debt crisis in Greece from mushrooming into a larger problem for the euro monetary union, said two European diplomats who were present during the discussions but did not want to be named.
The Americans said that Europe’s ability to manage these problems was important to the United States, but that President Obama did not specify what kind of help the United States would be willing to extend, other than statements of support, the diplomats said.
The European leaders said during the discussions that Europe’s problems were limited to Greece and that they did not believe Greece risked infecting the rest of the euro zone, which covers 17 countries. They pointed to the continued strength of the euro vis-Ã -vis the dollar as proof that the situation was still under control.
The leaders agreed, however, that Greece needed to be more aggressive in adjusting its own finances, and said they believed that the country would ultimately be able to avoid defaulting on or restructuring its debts.
Greek media has speculated in the last week that the country will hold snap elections or possibly return to the drachma. The European marine affairs commissioner, Maria Damanaki, who is a Greek Socialist, added fuel to the fire when she suggested on Wednesday that talks were already taking place about Greece’s possible exit from the euro zone.
Apart from tax increases and public spending cuts, the Greek government’s proposed austerity program also includes a privatization drive that foresees sales in stakes of state utilities and assets including the state telecommunications company OTE.
On Friday, Deutsche Telekom, which already has a 30 percent stake in OTE, confirmed the receipt of a letter from the Greek finance ministry asking to arrange talks to discuss increasing its stake.
But a few dozen employees of the phone company protested a further sell-off by blocking one of Athens’s busiest roads, in front of the company’s headquarters, during the morning rush hour Friday.
Larger protests have been held over the last three days as Greeks, facing a deepeningrecession and mounting unemployment, seek to air their grievances.
end.
Over in Spain, riots are turning ugly as the citizenry are against austerity by the bankers:
Courtesy the Edmonton Journal:
Over in Spain, riots are turning ugly as the citizenry are against austerity by the bankers:
Courtesy the Edmonton Journal:
Protests in Spain turn violent
Police clear out area ahead of crucial soccer match Saturday
Riot police fired rubber bullets and clubbed protesters camped out in Barcelona's Plaza de Catalunya as they tried to clear the square before Saturday's Champions League final in London.
After nearly two weeks of peaceful protests, which brought tens of thousands to occupy plazas across Spain, the first violent altercations occurred in the Catalan capital on Friday morning.
The local police force, Mossos d'Esquadra, equipped in anti-riot gear, moved in after protesters blocked cleaning trucks attempting to dismantle the encampment that has been in place since the demonstrations began on May 15.
Some 45 people, including one police officer, were treated for minor injuries after the clash, during which police were seen striking activists with clubs and firing rubber bullets. Authorities said they had to clear the square ahead of the Champions League final between Barcelona and Manchester United at Wembley on Saturday evening. Crowds are expected to gather in the square to watch the match on giant television screens.
"Once the cleaning is finished the protesters can go back, but without the tents, knives and dangerous objects," said a police spokesman in Barcelona.
The demonstrators, who call themselves los indignados -the indignant ones -began gathering on May 15, in a movement known variously as "M-15", "Spanish Revolution" or "Real Democracy Now," to register dissent at the country's economic crisis, which has pushed youth unemployment to 45 per cent. Inspired by the Arab Spring revolts, the protests swelled ahead of regional elections last Sunday, in which Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriquez Zapatero's socialist party suffered a resounding defeat.
Protesters have vowed to continue the movement from their base in Madrid's Puerta del Sol despite dwindling support.
© Copyright (c) The Edmonton Journal
end.
Fitch cuts its outlook for Japanese credit rating outlook to negative:
(courtesy Reuters and Fitch)
Fitch cuts Japan credit rating outlook to negative
TOKYO (Reuters) - Ratings agency Fitch on Friday cut its outlook on Japan's sovereign debt to negative from stable, warning that the massive cost of a March earthquake and tsunami and the still-unknown bill for the clean-up after the nuclear disaster would put added strain on the country's already shaky public finances.
The yen fell against the dollar and the euro immediately after the move, which follows a similar downgrade by Standard & Poor's last month. Fitch affirmed its AA minus local currency rating, its fourth highest and the same level as S&P's but one notch below Moody's Aa2. After Friday's move by Fitch, all three now have negative outlooks for Japan.
"Japan's sovereign credit-worthiness is under negative pressure from rising government indebtedness," said Andrew Colquhoun, head of Fitch's Asia-Pacific Sovereigns team in a statement.
"A stronger fiscal consolidation strategy is necessary to buffer the sustainability of the public finances against the adverse structural trend of population aging."
Responding to the news, the Japanese government offered assurances that it would continue efforts to bring public finances back under control.
"On the one hand, Japan is working hard to rebuild. On the other hand, it is a given that it works hard on fiscal soundness," Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Tetsuro Fukuyama told reporters at a Group of Eight summit in the northern French seaside town of Deauville.
Analysts played down any potential market impact of the latest downgrade, saying it simply affirmed the widely held view of the challenges facing Japan.
"There is nothing surprising in Fitch's action," said Katsuyuki Tokushima, chief fixed-income strategist at NLI Research Institute in Tokyo. "It rather seems belated given the dire political situation in Japan. Fitch's outlook downgrade is unlikely to impact bond and credit markets."
While noting that government spending on rebuilding the quake-ravaged areas could boost gross domestic product in 2011 and 2012, Fitch singled-out the potentially huge costs of cleaning up after the Fukushima plant disaster as a serious risk.
"There is considerable downside risk for the public finances from the still-unknown cost of cleaning up the Fukushima nuclear plant, while delays in restoring power supplies could lead Fitch to revise down its 2011 growth forecast from 0.5 percent.
Japan's public debt, already twice the size of the $5 trillion economy, is set to swell as the country faces reconstruction costs following the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that killed around 24,000 people and triggered the world's worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl.
However, the country's deepest crisis since World War Two has not healed rifts between the government and the opposition, whose majority in the upper house stands in the way of fiscal reform.
Fitch said Japan's public indebtedness was also rising sharply, at a pace trailing only Ireland and Iceland, "both of which have experienced systemic banking crises."
-END-
courtesy of Spiegel and special thanks to Robert H. for sending this to me:
What Would a Greek Haircut Mean for Germany?
By Sven Böll
It's the worst-case scenario: Greece no longer able to get loans, with creditors having to wave goodbye to a chunk of their money. But what would it mean for Germany? Would the state have to bail out the banks again, and would private investors also suffer badly? SPIEGEL ONLINE takes a look at the likely consequences.
It may only be a small passage in the statutes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but it is the bottom line: An organization can lend money to a country only if it is certain the state will remain solvent for at least one year. Washington experts are increasingly doubtful that this minimum requirement can be guaranteed in the case of Greece.
The heavily-indebted state is due to receive a further tranche of its €110 billion bailout package -- one-third of which is provided by the IMF, with the other two-thirds coming from the European Union -- at the end of June. But if the Greek austerity and privatization measures do not meet the IMF's requirements, with the result that the fund decides not to release the payment, Greece could face the prospect of default.
Whether the euro-zone countries would take over the IMF's share in such a scenario is unclear. Which is why Greece's European partners are probably not too unhappy about the IMF's doubts. They function as a warning signal for Greece that the chips are down: Time to stop playing around.
In any case, the situation has led to another grim scenario, one which has been discussed on the financial markets for weeks, becoming more likely: Greece has so much debt that the state is hardly likely to ever be able to fully repay the money to its foreign creditors. Most, if not all, now accept that some form of debt restructuring will be necessary, and that this could involve reductions of up to half of Greece's debt.
Manageable Consequences
A debt reduction -- known as a "haircut" -- of as much as 50 percent would be an expensive proposition for Greece's creditors. With around €330 billion ($467 billion) in loans, that would mean cutting as much as €165 billion. Most of Greece's debt is with foreign creditors, and so foreign banks and governments would have to take massive hits over the loans Athens is unable to repay in full.
But what would this mean in reality for Germany?
•Would banks go bankrupt?
•Would insurance companies have to write off billions?
•Would fund investors face drastic losses?
The answer to all of these questions is reassuring -- at least at first glance. The consequences of a debt write-off against the government in Athens would be manageable for Germany. At the moment, some €25 billion in Greek debt is held by Germany's commercial banks and the so-called "bad banks" set up to take on toxic assets. This debt takes the form of either Greek sovereign bonds in their portfolios or loans made to the Greek government.
Greece's biggest creditor in Germany is the government-owned KfW development bank. So far, the government's all-purpose bank for urgently-needed cash injections has approved loans worth €8.4 billion to Athens, which were paid out as part of the European and IMF rescue package. Since Germany's federal government acted as the loans' guarantor, the finance minister would have to make up for any shortfalls. If Greece gets a 50 percent haircut on its loans, that would cost the ministry more than €4 billion.
With €7.4 billion in loans to Athens, FMS Wertmanagement is the second-largest German creditor to the Greek government. But behind the reassuring name -- "Wertmanagement" can be translated as "value management" -- is the bad bank for Hypo Real Estate, which had to be nationalized during the financial crisis. Similarly, the bad bank for Düsseldorf-based regional bank WestLB -- which bears the not overly trust-inspiring name "Erste Abwicklungsanstalt" ("primary liquidation establishment") -- also holds roughly €1.4 billion in Greek sovereign bonds.
With a 50-percent haircut, the two bad banks would lose around €4.4 billion in total. Taxpayers would end up indirectly footing the bill.
Sufficient Capital to Avoid Trouble
The rest of Germany's regional banks, which are known as Landesbanken and are predominantly owned by individual federal states and savings banks, collectively have about €2.5 billion in outstanding loans to the Greek government. But none of the institutions, however, would be left seriously in trouble by a drastic haircut -- they have sufficient capital at their disposal.
Of mild comfort is the fact that the state would probably not have to come to the rescue of any private institutions. Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank and the DZ Bank, which acts as the central bank for Germany's roughly 1,200 partly state-owned co-operative banks, are (once again) in a position to be able to cope with possible shortfalls by themselves.
This is aided by the fact that the write-offs at places like Deutsche Bank might be smaller than the amount involved (€1.6 billion) would suggest. Sources close to Germany's largest bank have indicated that the bulk of the Greek securities have already been accordingly revalued. Even if worst comes to worst, any additional reduction in value would tend to be limited.
The situation would also be manageable for German insurance companies. A year ago, the industry assumed that up to 1 percent of all its investments were in Greek government securities. But since then, the figure is estimated to have fallen well below 0.5 percent, which corresponds to a maximum value of €6 billion.
A debt restructuring of 50 percent would therefore see write-offs of at most €3 billion. In view of insurance companies' total investments of €1.2 trillion, it is probable that no single company would find itself in serious trouble -- and almost no individual customer would feel the consequences in their life or pension insurance policies.
Fund Investors have Little to Fear
Fund investors also have little to fear. With the four largest providers, which manage more than two-thirds of the money, the risks are minimal to non-existent:
DWS invested less than 1 percent of its assets in Greece. The value of most of this has already been adjusted.
•Deka only has one fund which still holds Greek government securities. Even in this product, they do not play any significant role.
•At Union Investment, the share of total assets held in the form of Greek government bonds is very low, at below 0.15 percent.
•Of the big four, Allianz Global Investors took the most thorough approach to dealing with the issue. Today, the asset-management firm no longer holds even a single cent in Greek debt.
A drastic restructuring of Greek debt would therefore lead neither to a collapse of private banks nor to the implosion of the insurance sector in Germany, and would scarcely affect the fund investors.
Risk to Taxpayers
But the situation looks different for the German government and the federal states. At the very least, the large exposure of KfW and the bad banks of Hypo Real Estate and WestLB could end up being expensive. Taxpayers might need to step in, as might the savings banks that are owned by municipalities.
In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) has bought up tens of billions of euros of Greek sovereign bonds. Because the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, holds more than a quarter of the ECB's capital, it would have to take its share of losses accordingly.
So nothing to worry about, then? Not quite, even if a debt haircut for Greece would appear to be manageable for Germany. The greatest dangers of such a course of action lurk elsewhere. The Greek banking system would probably break down, while the country would find itself unable to borrow on the financial markets for a long time.
And a partial Greek default could also result in an aggravation of the euro crisis for a different reason. If Ireland and Portugal were to be infected by the debt restructuring virus, the situation would quickly spin out of control. In that event, private banks, insurance companies and investors in Germany would definitely feel the consequences.
URL: