Saturday, April 2, 2011

Raid on silver and gold foiled again/silver still in backwardation/more updates from Japan

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold and silver experienced a huge raid orchestrated by the bankers.  They seem to target the phony jobs number in order to carry out their raid.  They tell the bankers to withhold all bids and when they throw over 100,000 non backed paper contracts right on the onset of trading, the price falls dramatically and trips all of the stop losses. This causes more losses.  Finally equilibrium occurs at a much lower price and the bankers start covering all of those massive short contracts that they threw at the comex.  This has been going on for years and our regulators just look the other way.  The bankers knew in advance that the raid was set for the jobs report on April 1. 2011  However  the "good guys"  were totally prepared, waiting in the wings gobbling up all of those contracts.  Silver was the first to rebound which was followed by gold. Our banking cartel got royally defeated yesterday and they will have to have more for those late weekend meetings deciding what on earth they are going to do with the huge paper silver and gold demand they are facing coupled with the physical metal leaving their shores for other foreign destinations.

Gold finished the day down by only $10.80 at $1428.10.  Silver finished the day at $37.74 down by only 13 cents even though it was whacked to $37.00 early in the session.  

Let us see how the trading in silver and gold fared yesterday:

The total gold comex OI rose by 5014 contracts to 492,154 from Thursday's level of 487,140.  The front delivery month of April saw its OI mysteriously fall from 11,799 to 6534 with only 1942 notices sent down the first day.  Either we had a massive amount of stragglers who somehow put money down but decided it was not worth it and they decided to roll anyway and  not stand, or Blythe had a busy Wednesday night with her cheque-book.  The next front month of June saw its open interest rise from 332,502 to 341,711 for a gain of over 9000 contracts.   The estimated volume on Friday was a remarkable 172,282 contracts.  The confirmed volume on Thursday was low if you include the rollovers. It came in at 142,758.  If the longs were paid handsomely they could very easily have bought the June contract with their newfound wealth which will explain the big gain in the June month.

And now for silver:

The total silver comex OI refuses to budge. The Friday close reading on the total OI came it at 137,580 falling by only 32 contracts.  The bankers were not amused and this no doubt was the major reason for the raid to be orchestrated along with the jobs report.  The options expiry month of April saw the OI fall from 94 to 55 for a loss of 39 contracts.  We had 59 deliveries on Thursday so the entire contraction in OI was due to those deliveries and we still gained some silver standing.  The next delivery month of May saw the OI fall a bit from 74,994 to 73,502 which is quite normal.  The estimated volume Friday at the silver comex was humongous at 85,384.  The confirmed volume on Thursday, the day silver rebounded big time, came in at 57,010 .So you see the huge firepower mustered by the crooked bankers as their plot failed miserably!!
The firepower in silver was the 85,000 contracts supplied  and in gold it was 172,282 contracts.

Here is a chart for April 1. 2011 on deliveries and inventory changes at the comex:

Silver
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
zero oz
Withdrawals from customer Inventory
118,741 oz
Deposits to the dealer Inventory
zero oz
Deposits to the customer Inventory

2364 oz
No of oz served (contracts ) 9
45,000 oz
No of notices to be served 46
230,000 oz


Gold
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
zero
Withdrawals from customer Inventory
zero oz
Deposits to the dealer Inventory
zero oz
Deposits to the customer Inventory
32 oz
No of oz served (contracts)  422
 42,200 oz
No of oz to be served  notices  6112
611,200 oz





Let us start with gold and remember that this is a delivery month.
The movement of gold into and out of vaults is totally unprecedented.  Only 32 oz of gold left
the customer.  There were no deposits into the dealer and no withdrawals.  There were no withdrawals by the customer and no adjustments.  The gold scene was quite comatose.

The comex folk notified us that 422 notices were sent down for delivery for a total of 42,200 oz. To obtain what is left to be served, I take the OI at 6534 and subtract out Friday's deliveries (422) which leaves me with 6112 notices to be served or 611,200 oz.

The total number of notices served in the two days total 2364 for a total of 236,400 oz of gold.
Thus the total number of gold oz standing in this month is as follows:

236,400 oz (served)  + 611,200 oz (to be served)  =  847,600 oz (26.3 tonnes of gold)

The amount standing is now on the light side.  Yesterday we had a total of 1,179.900 oz so either we got some cash settlements or a huge number late stragglers rolled despite plucking 100% of the money to take delivery.

And now for silver:

Again we see no deposits of silver to the dealer.  All transactions were with the customer.
The customer received a tiny 2973 oz . However, 3 customers removed the following silver quantities:

1. 70,922 oz  (from Scotia)
2. 45,904 oz ( from HSBC)
3. 1915 oz   (from Delaware)

total :  118,741 oz

Note:  no silver left a JPMorgan vault nor did any silver arrive at JPM.
There were no adjustments.

The comex folk notified us that 9 contracts were served upon our option holders for a total of 45,000 oz.
The total number of notices served thus far total 67 for a total of 335,000 oz of silver. To obtain what is left to be served I take the OI for April at 55 and subtract out the deliveries for Friday at 9 which leaves me with 46 notices to be served upon or 230,000 oz.

Thus the total number of silver oz standing in this non delivery month is as follows:

335,000 oz(served)  +  230,000 (to be served)   =  565,000 oz.
Yesterday we had a total of 470,000 oz so we gained  95,000 oz from yesterday. We should have another 2 million oz month for silver.

Before leaving, the comex late last night released what the intent to deliver will be on Monday:
For gold we have an intent to deliver of only 19 contracts.  In silver, the intent is 11.
It looks to me like we have scarcity in both silver and gold metals.


end


Let us head to our ETF's and see how they behaved today.

First, let's see what happened to our "non-physical" inventories.

First the GLD: April 1.2011:

Total Gold in Trust

Tonnes: 1,211.23
Ounces:38,942,221.63
Value US$:
56,017,247,422.78

Total Gold in Trust:


March 31.2011
Tonnes: 1,211.84
Ounces:38,961,724.59
Value US$:
55,519,943,096.45

We lost .61 tonnes of gold which  left the English vaults yesterday to put out the massive fires burning with the huge demand for gold.


How about SLV?


Today:  April 1.2011:

Ounces of Silver in Trust358,143,807.200
Tonnes of Silver in Trust Tonnes of Silver in Trust11,139.52
March 31.2011

Ounces of Silver in Trust
358,143,807.200
Tonnes of Silver in Trust Tonnes of Silver in Trust
11,139.52
March 30.2011

Ounces of Silver in Trust
358,143,807.200
Tonnes of Silver in Trust Tonnes of Silver in Trust
11,139.52

March 29.2011
Ounces of Silver in Trust
358,143,807.200
Tonnes of Silver in Trust Tonnes of Silver in Trust
11,139.52




Zero oz of silver is leaving the SLV "inventory".
We has witnessed no silver leaving the SLV for quite some time.  I will be willing to bet that 
there is no silver behind this vehicle and thus the "silver" cannot put out any fires as there is no metal.


And now for our physical ETF's:

The Sprott silver fund:  PSLV:


the premium to NAV remains high at 18.82% .  The premiums on pure silver funds are extremely high and indicative of the huge demand for silver.
The Sprott silver fund withstood the huge raid orchestrated by the bankers.
The Sprott gold fund PHYS:
the premium to NAV lowered a bit to 3.65%

The Central Fund of Canada which is equal parts gold and silver:

 strangely saw its premium rise back to 5.4% in  USA funds  and 5.2% in Canadian funds. It has been calculated that this fund will receive 4.1 million oz of silver  and approx 170,714 oz of gold.  This gold and silver will thus never reach the comex much to the chagrin of the bankers. Both the Sprott funds and the Central fund of Canada make their deals with major miners which thus bypasses the normal route for these metals. Henceforth the mints do not get their metal desired nor does the comex.

end

Let us head over to the gold COT report which was released yesterday afternoon:

Gold COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Total
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
Long
Short
242,343
49,222
22,806
158,429
399,198
423,578
471,226
Change from Prior Reporting Period
10,831
-7,453
-20,794
-4,187
11,783
-14,150
-16,464
Traders
208
52
70
46
48
285
145


Small Speculators




Long
Short
Open Interest



68,509
20,861
492,087



-2,894
-580
-17,044



non reportable positions



In the gold COT report:

Those large speculators which have been long added a huge 10,831 contracts to their long positions.
Those large speculators which have been short lightened up on those positions to the tune of 7453 contracts.

And now for our famous commercials;
Those bankers who have been long lightened up a bit on those longs to the tune of 4187 positions.
Those bankers who have perennially short gold from the year 4 BCE to now:  increased their shorts by a massive 11,783 contracts.

Our small speculators that have been long lessened their longs by 2894 contracts.
Those small guys who have been short, did not like the lay of the land and covered 580 contracts.

conclusion;  the large boys piled into the metal and the bankers supplied the unbacked paper.
The OI was reduced in the large speculators who were short and the large commercials who have been long.

and now for silver:

Silver COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Total
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
Long
Short
47,764
10,625
23,075
32,587
87,882
103,426
121,582
212
-152
-917
1,061
1,174
356
105
Traders
86
30
43
37
50
145
107

Small Speculators




Long
Short
Open Interest



35,060
16,904
138,486



2,142
2,393
2,498



non reportable positions
Change from the previous reporting period

COT Silver


The large speculators that have been long added a smallish 212 contracts to their longs.
The large speculator that have been short lessened their shorts by a tiny 152 contracts.

And now for our commercials:

Those large commercials that have been long continued to add to their longs by a huge 1061 contracts.
And our good friends, JPM and HSBC who also have been short the metal from the beginning of time, added more to their shorts to the tune of 1174 contracts.

And now for our small specs;
Those small specs that have been long liked the layout on silver and thus they added to their longs to the tune of 2142 contracts.
Those small specs that have been short, mis-read the tea-leaves and added 2393 short positions to their short position and are feeling the pain this weekend.

Conclusion:  JPMorgan continues to pile on the shorts and are still suffering migraine headaches.


end.




James Turk was interviewed by Eric King and this interview is a must for all to read.
(courtesy of Eric King, of Kingworld news, James Turk and GATA  (Chris Powell)



Record silver backwardation threatens dollar, Turk tells King World News

 Section: 
12:48p ET Friday, April 1, 2011
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
GoldMoney founder James Turk today tells King World News that silver's backwardation has grown even more stunning and has huge implications for the U.S. dollar. Excerpts from the interview are headlined "Record Silver Backwardation Spells Danger for US Dollar" and you can find them at the King World News blog here:
Or try this abbreviated link:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

end

Can some of you scientists out there verify this for me:
(from the Lemetropolecafe commentary)

Did you know that each Tomahawk cruise missile has in excess of 500 oz of silver in it? I haven't checked the veracity of this article, but it points out a use of the "mule" that I wasn't aware of. According to the story we dumped 3 tons of silver on Libya last week. No wonder JPM can't cover their shorts. Raytheon is burning through it at a hefty rate.
http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/31/h
ow-and-why-the-elite-destroyed-3-tons-o

DD







Let us now see the major stories effecting our planet.  Chris Martenson has the best balance in discussing the tragedy over in Japan. Here he has received exclusive photos of the stricken reactor site and discusses their impact:  Here is his commentary:

Submitted by Chris Martenson
Exclusive: new photos of Fukushima reactors
Noting that the press has largely turned its resources off of the Fukushima complex, and needing up-to-date information on the status of the damage control efforts there, we secured the most up-to-date satellite photo from DigitalGlobe (dated March 31st), which we analyze below. This is the first photo of the damaged reactor site at Japan's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear facility made available to the public in over a week. That means you, our readers, are the first public eyes anywhere to see this photo.
Drawing upon the expertise of our resident nuclear engineer and Ann Stringer, imaging expert, we conclude that the situation at Fukushima is not stabilized: things are not yet at a place of steady progress in the containment and clean-up efforts. It's still a dance, forwards and backwards, with the workers making gains here and there and the situation forcing them to react defensively.
In this report, we will tell you what we know for sure, what we are nearly certain of, and what we remain forced to speculate about.
Here is a portion of a much larger image (covering 25 square kilometers in total) showing the reactor complex as of March 31, at roughly mid-day:
Photo Credit, 2011, DigitalGlobe

What We Can See

Here's what we can directly observe in the larger satellite image:
  • Steam is still rising from reactors #2, #3 (circled in green) and #4.
  • Of the four reactor buildings, three are nearly or totally destroyed, while the outside (at least) of the fourth is in relatively better shape.
  • We can count 7 fire trucks 'on site' with another 7 just to the north, all with water lines strung out across the ground.
  • There is only one ship/vessel to be seen, located inside of the breakwater and nearly as far to the north as it can go inside that boundary.
  • A significant number of the vehicles that can be seen at the core of the site have not moved since the first released photos on March 12.  
  • There is a parking lot slightly to the north and west with approximately 250 passenger vehicles in it and a side lot with 30 large green tanks neatly arranged in rows.
  • The rest of the area is one, two, and four lane roads (no traffic at all), worked farmland, residential and commercial areas, mostly empty parking lots, and two baseball diamonds.

Here's what we don't see

  • Nowhere in the 25 km area in the main photo can we find anything that looks like a staging area with a large collection of assets such as tanker trucks, pumpers, cement trucks, piles of pre-staged materials, ambulances, and fire trucks.
  • The cement pumper truck seen a week ago has been apparently replaced by the boom at reactor #4.
  • There's no obvious barge delivering fresh water for the rector cooling efforts as recently reported (it may have come and gone?).
  • Any obvious changes to the roofs of any of the reactors.
  • Any people outside the plants working.

Things we can logically conclude

The steam that is venting is a mixed blessing. It implies that cooling water is getting to some hot material, which is a good thing, but it also means that something is hot enough to vaporize water and the continued release of radioactivity into the surrounding environment.
This means that the lack of steam coming from reactor #1 is either a very good sign, or a very bad sign. Good because it could mean that the containment vessels are intact and cooling water is circulating. Bad because it could imply that no water is getting to it and it is a very hot mass right now. According to TEPCO, reactor #1 has had seawater, and now freshwater, circulating through the reactor vessel - and since both containment vessels are intact, we'll conclude the lack of steam is a good sign.
The situation at Fukushima is going to drag on for years. First there's the matter of stabilizing the situation which has not yet been fully achieved. Recent surprises in terms of the amounts and locations of radioactivity are one sign that the situation is not fully stabilized. Still, nothing has blown up in quite a while, the steam venting appears consistent, and the major surprises seem to be over for now. While the TEPCO workers are still reacting to things as they arise, these are smaller things than last week, which is another hopeful sign.
The detected presence of neutron beams, I-134, and radioactive chlorine are all strongly supportive of the idea that criticality has resumed. Our best guess is that these are localized pockets, probably of short duration, and do not involve the entire core mass of any particular reactor conflagrating in some gigantic, greenish blob of uncontrolled fission. The geometries of the fuel in relation to neutron moderators requires precise conditions to support sustained fission and so it is rather unlikely to be occurring in anything other than localized pockets. If the entire reactor in its fully operational state was capable of supporting what we might scale to 100% fission, the amount of fission happening after a partial (or complete) meltdown will be a far lesser percentage. Still, any amount of fission is unwelcome at this point because it is adding to the heat and radiation removal difficulties.
The constantly rising levels of radioactivity found in the seawater are a further unwelcome development, but without a proper isotope analysis we cannot conclude anything about the potential resumption of fission from their gross amounts alone. It's always possible that the leftover fission products are now being washed in larger amounts into the sea for some reason.

Additional Drone Photos

These are the most detailed photos yet to emerge into the public space (released yesterday, March 31, as far as I know), and they are purported to come from a drone flyover on March 20 and 24th.  They are really quite good, and worth viewing in their entirety here.
Beginning with reactor 3, one thing we can say is, this thing is a right proper mess:
(Source for all that follow) 
There's a significant hole to the left of center that goes deep into the sub-structure (with a strange greenish cast that we've not been able to resolve after much conjecture) and it's clear that this building alone will take a long time to resolve.
Interestingly, we get our clearest image yet of the hole in turbine building #3 that was created by something ejected into the air during the reactor #3 explosion.
Looking like one of those cartoon cutouts that happens when the coyote hits the ground, we get the impression that whatever it was happened to be quite heavy and possibly shaped like an Apollo capsule. It has been my suspicion, which contradicts the official story, that the concrete containment vessel was what actually blew up in reactor #3 and I have been looking for evidence of in the form of large, heavy chunks of concrete (especially the refueling plug) lying about. I don't know what made this hole in the roof of the turbine building, but it was heavy.
Reactor #4 provides us with proof that serious damage can result from the effects of an overheated spent fuel storage pool:
Here the watering boom can be clearly seen. A camera was recently attached to the boom and it took some interior shots which were suggestive of the idea that the spent fuel pool is damaged and largely drained of water. Spraying water into this pool, then, is probably a balancing act with the desire to spray enough water on the rods to keep them cool being offset by the risk of having radioactive water drain away for parts unknown.
Almost certainly this same balancing act defines the efforts for reactors #2 and #3 as well.

Conclusions

The efforts at Fukushima are probably weeks away from even basic stabilization and we are years away from any sort of a final resolution. This crisis is going to be with all of us for a very long time. Radiation will continue to escape from the complex into the environment for weeks at best, months or years at worst.
The chief concern here is that things might still take a turn for the worse whereby radiation spikes to levels that prevent humans from getting close enough to perform meaningful operations and work on the site. If the radiation spikes high enough it will force an evacuation from the vicinity complicating every part of what has to happen next from monitoring to remediation.
The general lack of staged materials anywhere in the vicinity indicates that authorities have not yet decided on a plan of action, feeding our assessment that they are still in 'react mode' and that we are weeks away from nominal stabilization.
On Thursday we learned from the Wall Street Journal that TEPCO only had one stretcher, a satellite phone, 50 protective suits, and only enough dosimeters to give a single one to each worker group. Given this woeful level of preparation it is not surprising to see that regular fire trucks, cement trucks, and a lack of staged materials comprise much of the current damage control mix.
We don't yet know enough to conclude how much fission has spontaneously re-occurred, but we have strong suspicions that the number is higher than zero. Here we make our call for the release of more complete and timely radiation readouts and sampling results by TEPCO and Japan so that we can assess what the true risks are. The situation remains fluid and quite a lot depends now on chance and which way the wind blows. 
And as I detailed in the Alert report I issued soonafter the tragic events of the Japan earthquake and tsunami on March 10th, the impact of Japan's tribulations on the global economy will be large and vast. World markets are simply unpreapared for the third-largest economy to suddenly and violently downshift. The persisting crisis at Fukushima simply worsens the picture.
As always, we'll continue montioring developments closely and reporting our findings and conclusions on this site.
best,
Chris


end

I thought that this Graham Summers piece on the economy was terrific and it was filed on zero hedge:
courtesy Phoenix Capital Research, (Graham Summers) and zero hedge:



Do Economists Even LOOK At the Data They Claim Supports a “Recovery”?

Phoenix Capital Research's picture



For well over two years now we’ve been told that the US was in recovery and that as most the biggest risk was a potentialdouble dip. The reality however was that the US never experienced a real recovery (unless you work at one of the “chosen” firms on Wall Street). Housing at best flat-lined (though recent data shows the bounce is over as new home sales hit a record low last month).


Similarly, when we use U-6 unemployment data (which includes those who have given up looking for work and those who want full-time employment but have settled for part-time) we find that unemployment has actually risen throughout the “recovery” period.


We also find food stamp usage has hit a record of over 42 million (roughly 14.5% of the US population). ZeroHedge does a great job tracking this info:


We also see corporate profits are nowhere near the “record” levels trumpeted by the mainstream financial media. Indeed, when we remove financial profits (which are complete BS) we see that corporate profits have neither recovered to pre-Crisis levels, nor have they hit record levels:


Thus, we see that an honest assessment of the US economy today would state that corporate profits have rebounded (largely due to cutting employees and other cost cutting measures) but that the real economy (employment, food stamp usage, etc) have not followed suit.

This is, of course, something of a simple analysis of the true economic situation in the US (I’ve only spent a little over two pages on it). However, despite its brevity in length we have already seen that all claims of economic recovery in the US are bogus.

On that note, if you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got tohttp://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

Prepare Now!

Graham Summers


end

As many of you know, the release of the jobs report was hailed as wonderful for the USA with a job "growth" in excess of 200,000 jobs.  Here is the official report: (courtesy Reuters)

Employment jumps in March, jobless rate falls
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employment recorded a second straight month of solid gains in March and the jobless rate fell to a two-year low of 8.8 percent, marking a decisive shift in the labor market that should help to underpin the economic recovery.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 216,000 last month, the largest increase since May, the Labor Department said on Friday. January and February employment figures were revised to show 7,000 more jobs than previously reported.
The strong job gains come amid indications the economy suffered a minor setback early in the year as bad weather and rising energy prices dampened activity.
"All the evidence is pointing to a strengthening labor market," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston. While the report indicated sufficient underlying strength in the economy to cushion it against the impact of high energy prices, it was not strong enough to discourage the Federal Reserve from its ultra-easy monetary policies.
Policymakers at the U.S. central bank are, however, debating whether they should start considering withdrawing some of their massive economic stimulus.
The private sector accounted for all the new jobs in March, adding 230,000 positions after February's 240,000 increase. Government employment fell 14,000, declining for a fifth straight month as local governments let go 15,000 workers.
Although rising energy prices -- boosted by unrest in the Middle East and North Africa -- are eroding consumer confidence, economists do not expect businesses to put the brakes on hiring just yet.
"Employment gains have been modest in recent months, so in that sense I think businesses that were initially very wary of taking on permanent full-time employees are feeling more confident now than was case some months ago," said Richard DeKaser, an economist at Parthenon Group in Boston.
"As a result they are more willing to make those kinds of long-term commitments."
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DIPS
The strengthening labor market tenor was also underscored by the unemployment rate, which dipped to 8.8 percent, the lowest since March 2009, from 8.9 percent in February.
The jobless rate, which is derived from a survey of households, has dropped 1.0 percentage point since November, mostly reflecting employment gains rather than a rise in the number of discouraged workers.
It could start rising as the improving employment picture coaxes those who have given up the search for work to re-enter the labor market.
"It is always possible that as the job market improves, people will start looking again and the unemployment rate could go up," said John Hancock's Cheney. "But the normal pattern is once it starts coming down as rapidly as it has over the last few months, it keeps on going down."
The jobless rate is one of the factors that could determine the timing of the Fed's first interest rate hike since it cut overnight lending rates to near zero in December 2008.
The central bank last month described the labor market as improving gradually and dropped a reference it had used in a statement in January to employers remaining reluctant to add to payrolls.
The economy has recovered a fraction of the more than 8 million jobs lost in the recession. Economists say job growth of between 250,000 and 300,000 a month is needed to have a sizable impact on the pool of 13.5 million unemployed Americans.
That will probably keep the Fed sidelined for a while.
"There still remains significant slack in the labor market," said Millan Mulraine, senior macro strategist at TD Securities in New York. "Given the high levels of unemployment and the fact that the duration of unemployment is still unacceptably high, the Fed will remain on the sidelines at least for the next year before they start contemplating tightening monetary policy explicitly."
The Fed is expected to complete its $600 billion government bond-buying program, which ends in June.
Employment in March was concentrated in the private services sector, which added 199,000 jobs. Payrolls in the goods-producing industries rose 31,000, but manufacturing employment growth slowed to 17,000 from 32,000 in February.
The construction industry dipped 1,000 after rising 37,000 in February.
The employment report also showed the average work week steady at 34.3 hours and average hourly earnings flat.
-END-


 Over at JSMIneset.com we get the real truth:

Job Creation Remains Weak CIGA Eric
Job creation remains weak despite the attention grabbing headlines. Headline analysis, designed to generate clicks, has a tendency to selectively filter information. A deeper look at the numbers and trends suggests that while the numbers look good job creation remains weak.
(1) The labor force has been contracting year-over-year on a fairly consistent basis since 2009. It posted another annual contraction in March 2011. The contraction (more appropriate described as the reclassification of labor) has helped the official unemployment rate fall from 10.1% to 8.8% between 2009 and 2011.
Civilian Labor Force (CLF) And Year-Over-Year (YOY) Change clip_image001
(2) Job creation in 2011 remains relatively weak in comparison to the 2003-2008 liquidity expansion. Jobs created from January to March in 2011 lags comparable periods of 2004, 2005, and 2006. A smaller contribution birth/death model, modified in 2011, could explain some of the difference between the periods.
Birth/Death Model (BDM) Contribution to Nonfarm Net Payrolls (NFP) Added/(Lost) clip_image002
Headline: Unemployment rate falls to 8.8 pct, two-year low
The unemployment rate fell to a two-year low of 8.8 percent in March and companies added workers at the fastest two-month pace since before the recession began.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the economy added 216,000 new jobs last month, offsetting layoffs by local governments. Factories, retailers, education, health care and an array of professional and financial services expanded payrolls.
The second straight month of brisk hiring is the latest sign that the economy is strengthening nearly two years after the recession ended.


end

Over in Ireland, the bankers certainly did not like what they heard from Irish politicians that a haircut to senior bondholders was in the cards.  Look what Fitch announced yesterday:
(courtesy Reuters)

Ireland put on credit watch negative by Fitch
NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - Ireland was put on review for a potential downgrade to its credit ratings on Friday by Fitch Ratings.
Fitch said it placed Ireland's on rating watch negative and said it may cut Ireland's long-term foreign and local-currency issuer default ratings of 'BBB+'.
Earlier in the day Standard & Poor's stripped Ireland of its last 'A' rating, citing future risks to bondholders, but the one notch cut was less severe than feared.



end.

With the huge "gain" in jobs yesterday one would have expected the usa dollar index to rise.
Nope! it fell with a thud!!!:  The dollar's fall with good news is very ominous:

courtesy of zero hedge:

There Go All The Dollar's Gains

Tyler Durden's picture



Remember, way back when, when the dollar was supposedly on its way to rediscovering the little engine of growth that could just after the monthly NFP number came in just 30k below where it should be for the US to regain jobs list since December 2007, and the Fed was about to end debasing the US currency? Look again.
5
Your rating: None Average: 5 (10 votes)


end.

I really like the Greg Hunter commentary published yesterday over at JSMinset.
It discusses the Japanese problem, the problems in Libya and new problems surfacing over in Syria.He discusses the deficit and the laughable 33 billion dollars worth of proposed cuts in order to raise the debt ceiling.
This is well worth your time reading this great commentary!

Posted: Apr 01 2011     By: Greg Hunter      Post Edited: April 1, 2011 at 12:43 pm
Filed under: USAWatchdog.com
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Dear CIGAs,
As I look over the news and try to find the one story that I need to comment on, I am overwhelmed.  I see the nuclear meltdown story in Japan and wonder how it will all turn out.  It is nowhere near under control.  We still do not know the full extent of the damage, but there are traces of radiation showing up in things like milk here in the U.S.  Yes, I know experts say the amount is tiny and causes no health threat, but then again, this thing is not over by a long shot.  Brave workers there are sacrificing themselves to try and stop a total meltdown and save a large part of Japan from becoming a dead zone.  Fox News reported yesterday, “The so-called Fukushima 50, the team of brave plant workers struggling to prevent a meltdown to four reactors critically damaged by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, are being repeatedly exposed to dangerously high radioactive levels as they attempt to bring vital cooling systems back online.”  (Click here to read the complete FOX News Story.)
Next, there is the third war front in Libya.  Defense Secretary Robert Gates was grilled in Congress yesterday and reassured lawmakers that there would be no U.S. troops used in that North African country.  However, he would not address reports that the CIA was already there.  ABC News reported yesterday, “The confusion prompted one US congressman to dub Libya probably the ‘most muddled definition of a military operation in US history.’ News of a secret order signed by the US president authorizing covert American support for the rebels has been received as paving the way for a possible arming of the opposition.” (Click here to read the complete ABC News story.) Let’s hope the mess in Libya is cleaned up before Japan, but I fear both problems will be with us for a long time.
Now, it is reported the next country to destabilize in the Middle East could be Syria. Foreignpolicy.com is reporting the Assad regime in Damascus may be in deep trouble.  The story said, “Syria lies at the center of a dense network of Middle East relationships, and the crisis in that country — which has now resulted in the deaths of well over 100 civilians, and possibly close to double that number — is likely to have a major impact on the regional structure of power. . . . This edifice may now be crumbling, and the United States would be wise to spend a little less time thinking about Libya and a little more time thinking about a state that truly has implications on U.S. national interests. If things go south in Syria, blood-thirsty sectarian demons risk being unleashed, and the entire region could be consumed in an orgy of violence.”  (Click here to read the complete Foreignpolicy.com story.)

end


You have to shake your head with the this revelation from zero hedge:


How The Fed Gave Goldman Millions In Exchange For Defaulted Bond Collateral

Tyler Durden's picture



While it is no surprise that the day after Lehman failed, every single bank scrambled to the Fed to soak up any and all available liquidity after confidence in the entire ponzi collapsed, what is a little surprising is that of the 6 banks that came running to papa Ben, and specifically his Primary Dealer Credit Facility, recently upgraded, or rather, downgraded to accept collateral of any type, two banks (in addition to Lehman of course which at this point was bankrupt and was forced to hand over everything to triparty clearer JPM), had the temerity to pledge bonds that had defaulted (i.e. had a rating of D). As in bankrupt, and pretty much worthless. Now that the Fed would accept Defaulted bonds as collateral: or "assets" that have no value whatsoever is a different story. What is notable is that the two banks that did so were not the crappy banks such as Citi or Morgan Stanley, but the two defined as best of breed: Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. It is probably best left to the now defunct FCIC to determine if this disclosure is something that should also be pursued in addition to recent disclosure that Gary Cohn may have perjured himself by not disclosing truthfully his bank's discount window participation. However, we can't help but be amused by the fact that of all banks, the ironclad Goldman and JPM would be the only ones in addition to bankrupt Lehman to resort to something so low.
PDCF collateral as of September 15, 2008.
And further analysis indicates that a few weeks later, this practice became pervasive, with virtually every banker pledging defaulted bonds in exchange for money good cash with which to pretend these banks were doing just fine (not to mention that $71.7 billion in collapsing equities represented nearly half the total collateral of $164.3 billion pledged to receive $155 billion in cash.)
At some point people will inquire, perhaps not in the most peaceful of terms, just why this travesty of fiduciary responsibility was happening when it happened. But not yet. And certainly not while the Chairman continues to successfully levitate the market singlehandedly.
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