Saturday, October 18, 2008

Oct 18.08 commentary. www.lemetropolecafe.com

I would like to comment on the financial scene as it is probably more important than anything else.  You will see what I mean after I disclose to you events of the past 48 hours.  First of all my Number 2 son, Lenny sent this to me regarding the non—borrowings at the Fed which he gleaned from the Fed web page:                                                                    
       Oct.                     42436               42182               40977                1459              824647                 254
       Nov.                     42623               42258               40927                1696              825422                 366
       Dec.                     42674               27244               40905                1769              823348               15430
                                                                                                                                        
  2008-Jan.                     42149               -3510               40509                1640              821406               45660
       Feb.                     42804              -17353               41080                1724              822560               60157
       Mar.                     44292              -50232               41313                2978              826994               94523
                                                                                                                                        
       Apr.                     43563              -91847               41719                1844              824408              135410
       May                      44133             -111648               42122                2011              826462              155780
       June                     43373             -127905               41100                2272              832528              171278
                                                                                                                                        
      
                                                                                                                                        
      

 

                                                                          
       Oct.                     42436               42182               40977                1459              824647                 254
       Nov.                     42623               42258               40927                1696              825422                 366
       Dec.                     42674               27244               40905                1769              823348               15430
                                                                                                                                        
  2008-Jan.                     42149               -3510               40509                1640              821406               45660
       Feb.                     42804              -17353               41080                1724              822560               60157
       Mar.                     44292              -50232               41313                2978              826994               94523
                                                                                                                                        
       Apr.                     43563              -91847               41719                1844              824408              135410
       May                      44133             -111648               42122                2011              826462              155780
       June                     43373             -127905               41100                2272              832528              171278
                                                                                                                                        
       July                     43348             -122316               41371                1977              838142              165664
       Aug.                     44586             -123492               42599                1988              841710              168078
       Sep. p                  102796             -187309               42745               60051              903546              290105

Two weeks ending(7)                                                                                                                          
  2008-Aug. 13                  44369             -123266               42521                1847              841760              167635
            27                  44067             -124023               42025                2041              841074              168090
                                                                                                                                        
       Sep. 10                  47113             -122368               44857                2256              843773              169481
            24                 109520             -158341               40751               68769              911454              267861
                                                                                                                                        
       Oct.  8p                179913            
-363137               43879              136033              984717              543050

 

This is the non-borrowing of all the banks.  Each bank must keep 8 percent of deposits on reserve at the Fed to basically halt a run on the bank.  For over 10 years, the figure hovered around 40 billion dollars positive.  Last month it was 120 billion negative.  Today it is negative 363 billion dollars.

 

In other words, Fed money has replaced depositors money on reserve.  In plain English, depositors money are vaporizing faster than Casper the Ghost.

 

At around midmorning we got this announcement from the Fed that they have injected into the banking system a total of 437.5 billion dollars per day.  I repeat per day.  Or in plain English again, 2.65 TRILLION DOLLARS in one week.     Here is the passage:

 

 

Banks borrow record $437.5 billion per day from Fed

Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:38am EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Financial institutions ran to their lender of last resort for record amounts of cash in the latest week, under extreme pressure from the worst global financial crisis in a generation, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.

Banks and dealers' overall direct borrowings from the Fed averaged a record $437.53 billion per day in the week ended October 15, topping the previous week's $420.16 billion per day.

Some analysts are concerned that banks' dependence on Fed lending might become long term and difficult to change.

"The banking system is going to become addicted to this very cheap money. Unwinding it will be very difficult," said Howard Simons, strategist with Bianco Research in Chicago.

"We have effectively allowed the central banks to disintermediate the banking system. Why would I want to borrow from you if I could do it with the central bank, because they can always print it up and say 'here'...and they are in the business now of making sure I stay in business," Simons said.

Primary credit discount window borrowings averaged a record $99.66 billion per day in the latest week, up from $75.0 billion per day the previous week.

Primary dealer and other broker dealer borrowings were $133.87 billion as of October 15, versus $122.94 billion on October 8.

"Other credit extensions", mostly reflecting loans to insurer AIG, were $82.86 billion as of October 15, versus $70.30 billion as of October 8.

The Fed's lending to banks to enable them to purchase asset-backed commercial paper from money market mutual funds was $122.76 billion as of October 15, versus $139.48 billion on October 8.

Proceeds from the U.S. Treasury's sales of Treasury bills in the Fed's supplementary financing account, which are helping to fund the Fed's support of financial institutions, were $499.13 billion as of October 15, versus $459.25 billion as of October 8. end

Please note that last week, the daily average was 420 billion dollars per day or 2.1 Trillion dollars per week.

 

Many think that this is inflationary but it is not….yet!!  The money is flowing into banks to cover holes as the deleveraging is taking place.

 

The losses on the usa side of things is now well documented to be in the area of 3 trillion dollars.  The losses in Europe also total 3 trilllion dollars.  So a huge deleveraging is taking place as dollars are just flowing down a sink hole.  It becomes inflationary when banks give this money to you and I to spend.  Then hyperinflation will follow in a nano-second.

 

However, on the printing side of things, the usa Fed Debt page showed a huge increase of 30 billion dollars.  The figure as of last night totalled 10.33 trillion dollars.  On Thursday night the total was 10.24 trillion.

 

The bond vigilantes are witnessing these events with great horror.  First of all, the TIC report showed a cash outflow instead of inflow of 75 billion dollars.

The budget deficit is projected in 2009 to hover around 2 trillion dollars, so the government will need 6 billion dollars per day.  It looks to me that Asian countries are starting to lighten up on all their usa debt and turning them into cash.  The 6 billion dollars that is needed to cover the current account deficit is printed plus around 24 billion dollars of Asians cashing some bonds out.

 

The bond prices tanked yesterday and when the dust settled, the 30 year bond fell to 112.50. The bonds tanked because of Asian selling.

 

 

I point out this to you because, JPMorgan has made a one way bet that interest rates will remain low at around 4.5% on the 30 year note.  They own 85% of all derivatives in the credit arena and my guess is that it is over 200 trillion dollars .  The total derivative market is probably north of 1.2 Quadrillion by now. These are estimated figures from the BIS and they are probably on the low end.

 

A rise in long term interest rates, blows up JPMorgan which in turn blows up the entire banking system and then the entire global currency scheme.

 

The financial scene will continue to worsen as we see massive layoffs. This will put massive strains on the Government as deficits  become uncontrollable:  Here is the passage on the massive layoffs:

 

Layoffs spreading across corporate America

BOSTON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Shock waves from the global financial crisis are now being felt in almost every corner of working America as companies press the eject button on increasing numbers of employees.

While the ax has been falling for months in the financial and home-building industries -- where the current economic downturn started -- as well as the Detroit auto industry, makers of everything from soft drinks to water filtration
systems have unveiled hefty rounds of job cuts in recent weeks as they brace for what some predict could become a long and deep recession.

In the past week alone, companies including PepsiCo Inc and Danaher Corp said they would lay off thousands of workers, while the state of Massachusetts disclosed plans to cut its payroll by 1,000 as it faces a tax shortfall.

The situation is poised to worsen as the holidays approach and many businesses scrutinize budgets for the coming year. The sad truth is that Christmas layoffs are common in tough times.

"It's a fairly grim outlook," said Michael Goodman, director of economic and public policy research at the Donahue Institute of the University of Massachusetts. "I don't know of any sector of the economy that will be spared."…

-END-

Have a great weekend.

 

Harvey.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Oct 16.08 commentary.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

 

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen;

 

The cartel are getting extremely desperate as they whacked gold and silver pretty good today.

Gold fell by 34 dollars to 801.60 and silver fell badly by 54 cents to 9.64.

 

In economic news the following are very newsworthy:

 

  1. Industrial production fell a whopping 2.8% last month. It is the biggest fall in over 34 years.

       

 

        2.   The Philadelphia Fed. Factory Index fell big time down to a negative 37.5 from a positive 3.8 in Sept.  Remember yesterday, the Empire index for the NY area was disastrous.  You can safely say that manufacturing in the Philly area is dead.

       

        3,  Libor dropped slightly to 4.5% as banks did not want to lend.  It is ironic that Government leaders around the world are forcing banks to take money for equity.  Banks are still going to the Fed and other central banks for cash.  However they refuse to lend.    Maybe it is because there is nobody to lend to.

 

4.       The Dow zoomed up 400 points today on rumours of another ½ point cut in the Fed Funds rate.  I thought we would get it today with the Dow plummeting.   It was rescued so the ½ point was temporarily shelved until the next Dow bombing.

 

5.       The Fed announced its TAF auction on cash needed.  A record 101 billion dollars was forked over.  Here is the passage:

 

Just watching breaking news on Bloomberg that FED discount window lending today Oct 15 was a RECORD 101 B$. The AIG loan drawdown had gone to 84B$ from 70B$.  end.

 

Take a look at the AIG drawdown:  it has now surpassed the 84 billion dollar mark and we haven’t got to any payments on the Collaterized Debt Swaps yet.    You can bet that AIG is going to cost the Fed in excess of 1 Trillion  dollars.

 

 

 

6.       The biggest news was the release of the TIC.  This data gets no fanfare yet it is the most important data.   I will highlight the passage to you and then explain:

 

09:00 Aug net overall capital outflow ($0.4B) vs. revised Jul outflow of $33.6B
Net long-term TIC flows $14.0B vs. revised $8.6B inflow in Jul.
* * * * *

US net capital outflows ease to $400 million in August

NEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Net overall flows of capital out of the United States eased to $400 million in August from a revised outflow of $33.6 billion in July, the Treasury Department said on Thursday.

The department originally reported outflows of $74.8 billion.

Net long-term capital inflows excluding swaps were $14 billion in August, up from a revised $8.6 billion inflow the previous month. The department initially reported outflows of $8.2 billion.  End

You will note that instead of the necessary 60 billion dollar inflow there was an outflow of 400 million.  This is deadly to the usa.

 

The usa is now projected to have a deficit of 2 trillion dollars this year.  If you divide by 365 days, one gets 6 billion dollars per day or 180 billion dollars per month of foreign money is needed to fund the deficit.  If they do not get it, then they print it.  This is the inflationary part and is very deadly to the usa.

 

We now have the banks, refusing to lend which is the debt deflationary spiral coming head long against the printing of dollars to fund the deficit.

 

This hyperinflationary depression will be worse than the Weimar of 1923 and the Credit Squeeze Depression of 1931.

 

7.       Home building sentiment fell to record lows last month. The Wells Fargo index fell another 3 points to 14.  Last month it was 17.  Any reading below 50 means  more builders view the building scene as unfavourable to favourable.

 

    

8.       This is not good at all:

 

20:55 Hedge fund withdrawals surge to $43B in September - FT
The FT cites data from TrimTabs Investment Research. The paper notes that the $2T hedge fund industry has experienced outflows during only a handful of months previously. Of interest, JPMorgan has estimated that hedge fund outflows could total up to $150B over the coming year, a dynamic that would lead to sales of about $400B when considering the industry's use of leverage.
Reference Link (subscription required  end

 

9.     This is very serious.  The Baltic dry goods index  fell again last month.

Here is the passage:

 

 

 

Shipping Lines Say Tight Credit Cutting World Trade

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd., Hong Kong's biggest dry-bulk carrier, and Precious Shipping Pcl. said demand for moving coal, iron ore and other commodities will fall because banks are guaranteeing fewer loads.

``Letters of credit and the credit lines for trade currently are frozen,' Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping, Thailand's second-largest shipping company, said in Singapore yesterday. ``Nothing is moving because the trader doesn't want to take the risk of putting cargo on the boat and finding that nobody can pay.'

Ships are not carrying any goods across the ocean.

 

10.  Iceland`s default is playing havoc to the Collaterized Debt Swaps.  Here is the passage:

 

 

CDOs Imperiled by Collapse of Iceland Banks, S&P Says

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland's collapsed banks pose a ``substantial' risk to collateralized debt obligations that made bets on corporate debt, according to Standard & Poor's.

Kaupthing Bank hf, Landsbanki Islands hf and Glitnir Bank hf were included in 376 CDOs worldwide, S&P said. Another 297 made bets on two of the three banks. The CDOs packaged credit-default swaps that pay investors if there is a default, and the government's placement of the banks into receivership triggered a settlement of the contracts.

Because the so-called synthetic CDOs also bet on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15, and Washington Mutual Inc., the bankrupt holding company of the largest U.S. lender to fail, the ``impact of these exposures is likely to be significant,' S&P said in the statement yesterday.

KBC Group NV, Belgium's biggest financial-services company by market value, yesterday wrote down 1.6 billion euros ($2.15 billion) on its CDOs. Moody's Investors Service said Oct. 14 that it's reviewing 2.88 billion euros of the Brussels-based lenders' five CDOs linked to Icelandic banks.

Iceland's bank regulator took control of the country's three biggest lenders last week when they couldn't secure short-term funding on their about $61 billion of debt. The nation's benchmark stock index plunged 77 percent on Oct. 14, the biggest decline on record, after trading resumed following a three-day suspension.

Iceland Default Swaps

The cost of hedging against default by the Icelandic government has soared to 948 basis points, according to CMA Datavision prices for credit-default swaps. That means it costs 948,000 euros a year to insure 10 million euros of debt for five years. It compares with 118 basis points for the Czech Republic and 238 basis points for Morocco.

Sellers of credit-default swap protection must pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent after a bankruptcy filing…

-END-

10.  The treasury was busy today.  They auctioned off 194 billion in treasuries.

If this continues they will need 10 trillion dollars per year.

I will speak to you on Saturday.

Harvey.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Oct 15.08 commentary.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

 

 

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

 

Gold closed unchanged at 835.60.  Silver was hit pretty hard closing at 10.11 down by  84 cents.

 

The open interest on the gold comex was up by 2000 contracts  to 323000.   Silver gained a few contracts and closed at a relatively low 98596.

 

I was speaking to Reg Howe tonight and we informed me that the first time dealers are having trouble getting 1000 oz bars of silver.   When these bars disappear then you have 100% chance of a comex default in silver.

 

The day had so many eventful moments and you can read them in the Midas report.

 

I will report to you that the Dow plummeted by 733 points as Wall Street figured out that 250 billion dollars bailout of the banks is a cup full of water in an ocean.  There are two big reports that emphasized just that and I would like to highlight these to you.

 

In this AP story, another first rate newspaper basically stated that the usa needs 2 trillion dollars to bail out the banking industry.  Here is the report:

 

Gov't could guarantee nearly $2 trillion for banks
Tuesday October 14, 7:29 pm ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer

Gov't could guarantee nearly $2 trillion in bank debt, deposits under new FDIC insurance plan

WASHINGTON -- The government may guarantee nearly $2 trillion in U.S. banks' debt and deposit accounts for more than three years in an effort to break the crippling logjam in bank-to-bank lending.

That's the equivalent of about 20 percent of the national debt, which recently blew past $10 trillion, and roughly 14 percent of U.S. gross domestic product -- the economy's total output of goods and services.

The temporary guarantees for banks by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. are in addition to the new $250 billion plan announced by the government Tuesday to directly buy shares in U.S. banks.

Among the initial banks participating in that plan will be all of the country's largest institutions, including Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., and Morgan Stanley.

Well over half of the roughly 8,500 U.S. banks and savings and loans are expected to tap the FDIC's guarantees. The agency will provide temporary insurance for loans between banks, guaranteeing the new debt in the event the issuing bank failed or its holding company filed for bankruptcy….

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081014/fdic_bank_guarantees.html?.v=3

end..

The second big news story came from economist Nouriel Roubini.

You may recall that Roubini thought that the losses to the usa banks would be in the 1 to 1.5 trillion dollar level.  Tonight  he changed his mind.  He now concurs with me that the total losses will be 3 trillion in the usa.  Here is the passage:

 

Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Stock Drop

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the professor who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, said the U.S. will suffer its worst recession in 40 years, driving the stock market lower after it rallied the most in seven decades yesterday.

``There are significant downside risks still to the market and the economy,' Roubini, 50, a New York University professor of economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``We're going to be surprised by the severity of the recession and the severity of the financial losses.'

The economist said the recession will last 18 to 24 months, pushing unemployment to 9 percent, and already depressed home prices will fall another 15 percent. The U.S. government will need to double its purchase of bank stakes and force lenders to eliminate dividends to save them from bankruptcy, Roubini added. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said today he plans to use $250 billion of taxpayer funds to purchase equity in thousands of financial firms to halt a credit freeze that threatened to drive companies into bankruptcy and eliminate jobs.

``This will be the first round of recapitalization of the banks,' Roubini said. ``The government has to decide to intervene much more directly in the provision of credit and the management of these companies.'

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rallied the most since 1933 yesterday, rising 12 percent, on the government plan to buy stakes in banks and a Federal Reserve-led push to flood the global financial system with dollars. The S&P 500, which has fallen 36 percent since its October 2007 record, dropped 0.5 percent today.

`Really Tanking'

``The stock market is going to stop rallying soon enough when they see the economy is really tanking,' Roubini added.

The U.S. unemployment rate stood at a five-year high of 6.1 percent last month. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 16 percent in July from a year earlier, the most since records began in 2001, according to theS&P/Case-Shiller home- price index. Bank seizures may push home prices down further, scaring away buyers in coming months, after U.S. foreclosures rose at the fastest rate in almost three decades in the second quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Roubini said total credit losses resulting from the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market will be ``closer to $3 trillion,' up from his previous estimate of $1 trillion to $2 trillion. The International Monetary Fund estimated $1.4 trillion on Oct. 7. Financial firms have so far reported $637 billion in losses, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

-END

It is obvious that these two stories caused the Dow to crash today. 

Investors saw a hyperinflationary depression scenario and they bailed.  They smashed silver and whacked gold and silver shares.  Wall Street decided that they might as well throw the baby out with the bath water.  The only entity that went up today was gold which rose in the access market after closing unchanged in the regular market.

 

There were other important economic data out:

1.      Retail sales in Sept fell badly by 1.2%.  This also frightened wall street.

2.   The full year 2008 budgetary deficit was finally released and the shortfall came in at 455 billion instead of the 389 billion projected in late July.

      3.  The NY manufacturing index hit a record low in Oct.  The index fell to minus 24.62 from minus 7.41 in Sept.   In plain English:  manufacturing is dead in the NY area.

        4.  USA producer price index fell badly, down by .4% in Sept.  However core PPI actually rose by 4/10 of a percentage if you exclude food and energy.

 

5.       Libor continues to remain high with the 3 month Libor usa at 4.55%.  Banks are still reluctant to loan.

 

I think we are going to get another ½ point rate cut tomorrow.  This will happen if the Plunge Protection Team cannot muster enough support to help the ailing dow.

 

See you tomorrow

Harvey.

 

 

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Oct 14.08 commentary.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

 

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

 

First of all, I sent down to you earlier today an email to Mr Obie, the chief law enforcement for the CFTC.

My letter is self explanatory and you can find it  at  www.harveyorgan.blogspot.com.  It will follow this commentary.

 

There were big developments today.

 

First of all the open interest on gold plummeted by 12000 contracts to 321000 which means that certain bank cartel members are sensing  entities lining up to take gold.

 

Silver which has been rising steadily saw its OI plummet to a low of 97000.  This excites me greatly.

 

Two other developments that I would like to point out:

 

  1. Open Market Operations by the Fed were zero today for the third straight day.  The only explanation that I can give you is that the Fed ran out of money.  The balance sheet is tapped out.  I also took a look at the Federal Debt level and it has been rising exponentially.  Tonight it is 10.294 trillion for a rise of almost 30 billion overnight.  The boys are printing instead of borrowing.

 

2.    Trichet the head of the ECB gave a speech today and thought it best if the world returned to

               Bretton Woods I.  He wanted more transparency from banking regulators and more discipline.

                He also wishes to go back on a gold standard as the current situation is unworkable.

                You can bet the farm that his comments were directed towards usa.   I have highlighted to you

                 the appropriate passage.

 

                Trichet Urges Return to `Discipline' of Bretton Woods System

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said policy makers reshaping the world's financial system should try to restore the ``discipline' that governed markets in the decades after World War II….

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6_H1g.7y7AU&refer=home.

 

Here is the entire article for you to read.  Please pay special attention to this as this is very significant.

Trichet Urges Return to `Discipline' of Bretton Woods System

By John Fraher and Gabi Thesing

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said policy makers reshaping the world's financial system should try to restore the ``discipline'' that governed markets in the decades after World War II.

``Perhaps what we need is to go back to the first Bretton Woods, to go back to discipline,'' Trichet said after giving a speech at the Economic Club of New York today. ``It's absolutely clear that financial markets need discipline: macroeconomic discipline, monetary discipline, market discipline.''

Some European officials are pushing to tighten oversight of markets after the past year's credit squeeze culminated last week in the biggest stock sell-off since 1933. Prime Minister Gordon Brown yesterday suggested the most sweeping rethink of global financial architecture since U.S. and European officials met in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in 1944. The rules they drew up governed much of the world economy for the following 30 years.

Officials fixed exchange rates, established the International Monetary Fund and World Bank and started the process of rebuilding Europe's economy following World War II by encouraging nations to coordinate economic policies. Brown said national regulators must coordinate their work and banks should be pushed to disclose more trading positions.

``If we don't have discipline, then we are putting into question the functioning of the market economies and the functioning of our financial markets,'' Trichet said today.

Restore Order

Asked whether the escalation of the financial crisis exposed shortcomings in the global monetary system, Trichet said central bankers have ``been up to their responsibilities in these exceptional circumstances.''

Trichet and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke are struggling to restore order to credit markets after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and $638 billion in writedowns make banks reluctant to lend. The ECB and the Fed last week cut interest rates in tandem and yesterday agreed to flood the financial system with dollars.

Trichet suggested that slowing growth in the euro region may curb inflation, paving the way for more rate cuts after the ECB last week reduced its benchmark by 50 basis points to 3.75 percent.

``There has been a materialization of the downside risks to growth and we have to take that into consideration in all respects, and particularly as regards the influence that it has on the upside risks for price stability,'' he said.

Explosion

Trichet indicated that recent market turmoil was partly a consequence of the deregulation that occurred in the aftermath of Bretton Woods' demise. That was triggered in 1971, when inflation forced the U.S. to abandon the dollar's peg to gold, an anchor of the system, heralding the era of floating exchange rates.

``The explosion of the first Bretton Woods in a way could be interpreted as a rejection of discipline,'' said Trichet.

Brown, who has pushed for a decade to strengthen the hand of international authorities overseeing the financial system, said yesterday in London that ``we must devise new rules for a world of global capital flows'' just as the founders of Bretton Woods ``devised rules for a world of limited capital flows.''

``Creating stability by adapting frameworks that have worked historically can improve credibility and hence the effectiveness of policy stabilization measures,'' said Lena Komileva, an economist at Tullett Prebon Plc in London. ``This idea may gain traction with policy makers.''

To contact the reporters on this story: John Fraher in London at jfraher@bloomberg.netGabi Thesing in New York at gthesing@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 14, 2008 14:33 EDT

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